Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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672 FXUS64 KCRP 290243 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 943 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remain in effect through 2 AM for the Brush Country and Coastal Plains. As of writing, there is a severe warned storm pushing across the Rio Grande into Laredo. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats as this system moves east. In addition to the severe threat, rain rates from 2-4"/hr may cause some localized ponding in poor drainage areas. Soils should be able to handle the rainfall but we will continue to monitor for any flooding issues. && .UPDATE... Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Made a few tweaks to the forecast this evening: 1) Trimmed out the Victoria Crossroads and Northern Coastal Bend from the Heat Advisory. An outflow boundary moving through cooled them off nicely with current temps in the low 80s and heat indices around 85. Everywhere south and west of this boundary will remain in the Advisory through 8 PM. 2) Adjusted PoPs based on the latest CAM trends. A MCS is currently tracking over the mountain terrain of Mexico. The latest guidance brings this MCS over the Rio Grande and across the Brush Country. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary threats. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Key Messages: - Low to medium chance of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight - Cooler temperatures Wednesday, though Heat Advisories may still be necessary - Low chance of thunderstorms Wednesday An ongoing MCS continues to bear down on southeast Texas, pushing outflow boundaries toward and, eventually across, South Texas. Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop just north of Victoria County along one of these boundaries. Storms appear to be relatively weak at this point, but instability, high moisture, and steep lapse rates could contribute to more convective enhancement across our area. The greater chance for convection is likely later tonight as more storms develop over the west and move across the Brush Country/Coastal Plains. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat from thunderstorms, followed by large hail. While tornados seem unlikely, there is still a very small chance that we could have one occur. Showers and storms will continue into Wednesday, though severe weather is unlikely. Temperatures will cool for tomorrow, with heat index values ranging from 102-109 over most of the area. Those in the western Brush Country and over the southern inland Coastal Bend may yet experience heat index values of 110-112 Wednesday afternoon. Continue to practice heat safety! While it will be slightly cooler, frequent breaks, drinking lots of water, and wearing light, loose clothing will be important to keeping safe. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to extreme heat related impacts continue this week through early next week. A mid-level ridge positioned over Mexico extending over South Texas is expected to be the main weather influencer over the long-term period. Daily weather through the end of this week, expecting hot and muggy conditions to continue with low rain/storm chances around (20-30%) as several upper and mid-level disturbances move around the periphery of the high but mostly stay north of our CWA. Then for the remainder of the forecast, dry conditions are progged with silent PoP`s <15% chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low-level onshore flow, and a southwesterly/northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will advect drier air over the region will allow for warmer temperatures. As a result, moderate to extreme heat related impacts will continue despite a slight yet brief "cool-down" of surface temperatures. Afternoon highs will climb into the 90-105 degree range for the period. Heat indices will mainly hover between 105-110 into next week, heat indices early next week could hit at least 115 degrees but confidence is low at this time. Dewpoints mainly stay in the mid to upper 70s will make it feel like full blown summer in May. Additional Heat Advisories/Excessive Heat Warnings may be warranted and are more likely the beginning of next week. Regardless, the prolonged heat lessens the body`s ability to recover and becomes less tolerant to hot conditions. In addition to the heat, haze from fires down in Mexico continue to impact our area which can result in respiratory issues especially for sensitive groups. Expecting the haze to continue until the fires have been extinguished or if the southerly low-level flow changes directions (i.e. north). Please take pre-cautions to protect yourself when outdoors for prolonged periods. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions are in place across most terminals early this evening. CRP dropped down to MVFR as of writing this discussion. MVFR ceilings are expected at all sites in the next few hours. The main concern tonight will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to spread across the region. A MCS is currently developing over the mountain terrain of Mexico. There is fairly decent agreement that these storms will hold together as it crosses the Rio Grande. Based on the current timing and trends, COT/LRD will begin to see VCTS by 02/03Z with TSRA from 03-07Z. ALI/CRP will see activity a few hours later. Only have a mention of VCTS at VCT as storms may stay south of the terminals. Additional TAF updates will likely be needed through the night as these storms move closer and confidence grows. Otherwise, VFR returns through the morning hours with winds becoming gusty once again by mid day. Continued with a mention of HZ as fires continue to burn to our south. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There is a low to moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms today through Wednesday. A few storms could be strong to severe tonight. Mostly moderate conditions expected to persist into next week. However, moderate to strong levels may occur at times towards the end of this week. There`s a low to chance of up to 20-25% for showers and thunderstorms each day through the end of the week over the waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 92 79 93 / 50 30 20 20 Victoria 77 91 76 92 / 40 40 30 30 Laredo 77 99 78 102 / 70 20 10 10 Alice 77 96 77 96 / 60 30 20 20 Rockport 80 88 81 90 / 40 40 30 20 Cotulla 76 97 77 100 / 70 20 20 10 Kingsville 79 95 78 95 / 50 30 20 20 Navy Corpus 81 88 81 91 / 40 30 30 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC/95 LONG TERM....BF AVIATION...TC