Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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648 FXUS64 KCRP 261141 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 641 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Key Messages: - Heat illness risk continues through the Monday. Mid level ridging remains in place for a couple more days before we can look forward to some changes in the pattern (see long term discussion). But until then, we`re hold onto the hot and humid conditions we`ve seen for the past several days. Heat advisory and excessive heat warning conditions are expected once again with heat index values toping 110 for much of the area and 15 for west and southern areas. We`ll see a dry line impinge on the Rio Grande Plains, but despite a wind shift to the north, dewpoints will not decrease enough to put much of a dent in the heat indices. High temperatures will approach 110 west today and will be above 100 for much of South Texas. We will once again approach and quite possibly break some high temperature records (109 LRD, 97 CRP, 98 VCT). Similar temperatures/heat indices are expected Monday and heat products will likely need to be extended into Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Key Messages: - Pattern change beginning Monday night with daily low (15-25%) chances of rain Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected to dominate the long term. A series of shortwaves will traverse the region throughout the long term bringing rain chances back into play. The most significant shortwave appears to be Monday night as a couple of models led by the GFS are showing an MCS developing over the Hill Country and moving southward into South Texas. If that MCS does develop and overcomes the anticipated stout cap, periods of moderate to heavy rain could be possible over the Brush Country as PWAT values are expected to range from 1.80-2.20" which ranks in the top 10 percent of climatology. Due to the uncertainty, went conservative with a low (20%) chances for thunderstorms Monday night. Also noteworthy, conditions will be conducive for severe thunderstorms Monday evening into Monday night across the Victoria Crossroads. Therefore, SPC has highlighted the portions of the Victoria Crossroads under a Marginal Risk (level 1 or 5) of severe thunderstorms. With the series of shortwaves and ample moisture that is expected to be available, went with low (15-25"%) chances each evening throughout the long term. With the absence of the upper-level ridge and quasi-zonal flow aloft taking over combined with the low end rain chances and increase in cloud cover, daytime highs are expected to come down from the absurd levels they have been at lately which will in turn keep our heat indices generally under 112 degrees. Despite the more normal temperatures and reduced heat indices, there is still a medium to high chance for a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts with a low to medium chance of an extreme risk across the Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country due to the anticipated poor overnight recoveries. As we continue with these elevated risk of heat-related impacts, please be sure to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 MVFR conditions area-wide this morning. Will improve to VFR by mid to late morning. Southeast winds continue at moderate levels through the day for eastern sites. For COT and LRD, expect winds to shift north behind a dry line that pushes through. Tonight, MVFR conditions return east, but west may remain VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Moderate onshore flow will continue today through the open waters with exercise caution conditions. Winds weaken back to weak to moderate levels tonight and Monday. Weak to occasionally moderate onshore flow Monday night through Tuesday evening will strengthen to moderate to strong Wednesday and persist through the end of the work week. There will be a low (10- 20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each evening, mainly across the Gulf && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 80 96 79 / 10 0 0 10 Victoria 96 79 98 77 / 10 0 0 20 Laredo 110 82 108 80 / 0 0 10 20 Alice 104 79 101 77 / 10 0 10 10 Rockport 92 81 94 80 / 10 0 0 10 Cotulla 108 80 106 79 / 0 0 10 20 Kingsville 102 80 99 77 / 10 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 82 / 10 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229- 230-239>243. Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ231>234- 244>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...PH/83