Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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089 FXUS63 KFGF 271710 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1210 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms late week with a 50% chance for more than 0.50 inches. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 There has been a little morning sun over our far southeast FA, where Elbow Lake has risen to 65 degrees. The surface low looks to be somewhere east of Alexandria Minnesota, while water vapor imagery shows the best circulation over southwest Minnesota, but another lobe over west central Minnesota. The non supercell tornado parameter and surface vorticity SPC products are highlighting our south and southeast FA, where MLCAPE values are creeping up over 500J/kg. Therefore will have to keep an eye on the few little cells popping up across this area (for rotation) for another hour or so until they shift south of the FA. UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The forecast continues to look good this morning. The first shortwave over northeast South Dakota will continue to drop southeast today, while another one over southern Manitoba will rotate through the FA behind the first (more so tonight). Most of the activity associated with the first wave will push from the central Red River Valley into our southeast FA today, while more scattered activity is expected to develop behind the first wave more so this afternoon. Overall there will be more clouds than sunny spots, along with the scattered showers and storms. UPDATE Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 500 mb low nearing Aberdeen SD at 12z. Interesting is that northeast of the upper low an area of rain showers increased in coverage after midnight and this is where an area of widespread rainfall with a pocket of over one half inch southwest of Grand Forks at NDAWN stations near Northwood. This upper low and associated showers to move southeast this morning. Still will have upper wave upstream to move in as anticipated with chances for isolated or scattered shower or a t-storm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 500 mb short wave was near Bismarck at 08z and will be near Aberdeen at 12z and then into southwest Minnesota by 18z. Main area of precipitation (mostly light rain) was ahead of this short wave moving thru the RRV and into west central MN. Scattered showers were located farther north and west into Manitoba and central ND. This first and strongest short wave moves out this morning while another short wave moves south- southeast from western Manitoba into the Red River valley this evening. As this moves in this aftn/eve a few hundred j/kg CAPE enough to generate scattered showers and t-storms ahead of it, particularly eastern ND. Scattered shower and t-storm chances move out of SE ND after 06z. Winds today start light and variable but till turn north at 10-20 kts today. Cooler today with highs in the 60s. Decreasing clouds Tuesday but a north wind remains 10 to 15 kts. High pressure moves south over the area Tuesday night with clear sky and then a sunny Wednesday ahead as winds turn south- southeast at 10-20 kts in the aftn. Cool Tuesday night, with lows around 40 in many areas, some upper 30s in NW MN. Next 500 mb upper low moves into central and northern Alberta with a short wave moving east around the upper low from Washington state to eastern Montana by 18z Thursday. A narrow ribbon of instability present along the high plains from eastern Montana and western ND south will bring a chance for thunderstorms, locally strong or severe in those areas to our west Thursday. Area of showers and t-storms in advance of this upper level short wave moves into E ND/RRV Thursday aftn but instability is weak but enough for a few t-storms. This band of showers and t-storms moves slowly east Thu night and into Friday for NW/WC MN. Using NBM 4.2, 48 hour QPF probs from 12z Thu-12z Sat is 50 percent chance for 0.50 inch or more and 20 percent chance for 1 inch or more across the area, with highest percentages in the Red River valley. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Tricky set of TAFs, due to up and down ceilings and continued spotty showers and thunderstorms. The ceilings should stay mainly VFR through the afternoon, but they could briefly dip at times into the MVFR range (mainly with any shower/storm activity). Pretty hard to time any precipitation at the TAF sites, so mentioned VCSH and will update if something appears on track affect a TAF site. Winds look to stay pretty steady from about 340 to 350 degrees at 10 knots. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Godon/Riddle