Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171610

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1010 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 1008 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Precipitation along the cold front has finally saturated down and
we are getting RA/FZRA reports from PKD and FFM. Bumped up POPs
and included road temps to get a FZRA mention, as air temps are
borderline for the freezing mark. The band of precip should move
fairly quickly southeastward and think we should be done by 18Z.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Main issue is right off the bat. A cold front is moving east into
eastern ND. Moisture and several short waves embedded in the upper
flow moving northeast across the area just ahead of the front.
Warmer air ahead of the front as well. Enough frontogenesis late
evening to current for precipitation central-northeastern ND into
far NW MN and SE Manitoba. Temperatures right near 32F so a mix
occurring. Coldest roads temps in this area too. That first batch
of precipitation is moving off to the northeast. Now trailing on
the southwestern edge of this main area is spotty/light
precipitation extending at 0915z thru Grand Forks to Jamestown.
Temperatures at the sfc 32-34 in most areas so likely liquid but
road temps closer to 31-32F so some slick areas may be found.
Precip though is light. Next short wave and precipitation area is
moving northeast from NW South Dakota and will move thru SE ND
into parts of WC this morning. Once again pretty light.
Temperatures in this area should be a bit warmer with more 33-34
and thus a bit lesser risk of icing.

Do expect any precipitation chances to exit the forecast area by
early aftn.

Cold front will push though and winds turn west to northwest and
temperatures will fall some behind it. Colder tonight but dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Saturday a dry but chilly day as high pressure moves southeast
across western ND.

Low amplitude upper level ridge will move over the area as we head
into Sunday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF drop a short wave
southeast across southwest Ontario Sun afternoon. Few showers
could skirt Lake of the Woods county Sun. Another cold front will
move out of Canada Mon with the GFS a slightly faster solution.
Light rain/snow showers will be possible over northern MN Mon.

Long wave pattern amplifies a bit through the period. Long wave
upper ridge will build slowly over the western US while long wave
trough deepens slowly over New England states through the period.

The ECMWF and GFS were similar at the beginning of the period but
the ECMWF becomes the faster solution with time. Both the ECMWF and
the GFS were trending slower over the last couple model runs. Models
were out of phase with the flow over Canada by next Thu. Will blend
the models.

High temperatures increase a degree or less the Mon and Tue. Wed and
Thu high temps were increased one to five degrees from yesterdays


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 609 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

VFR conditions expected as cloud levels remain mostly aoa 6000 ft
agl range thru the pd. Exception at BJI where cloud bases will
lower to near 3000 ft agl level at times today. Winds will switch
to the west-northwest 10 to 15 kts and continue tonight.




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