Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 031739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CWA...BUT A BIT OF STRATUS IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD AND TEMP PROFILES THINK
THAT MUCH OF THE CWA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BUT
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD GET TO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THAT AREA WILL BE 100 OR ABOVE FOR A SHORT PERIOD BUT DO
NOT THINK IT WILL BE MORE THAN 3 HOURS AS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE RED RIVER ARE BEING STUBBORN AND HANGING
AROUND A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THAT THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE WILL GET INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT WILL MONITOR IN
CASE THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER AND KEEP US A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM VERY
SIMILAR AND PREFERRED.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE HOT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT WE WILL
MENTION THROUGH 14Z OR SO.

ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING...AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS TO THE WEST...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY
STRONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
BECOME LIKELY AS LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. A SFC BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE PROFILE...EVEN WITH WEAKER SHEAR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BECOME A THREAT NEAR AREA THAT
GET REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN VERY HIGH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY WILL EJECT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AS THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND COOLER AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. CURRENTLY HAVE
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH MODEL VARIABILITY BECOMES
MUCH GREATER DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR TODAY WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SKY COVER TOMORROW MORNING WITH BKN TO OVC
10KFT OR HIGHER CIGS DEVELOPING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JK



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