Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 021743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SURFACE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO FAR WESTERN FA. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AT THIS TIME WEAK. MADE SOME MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT KEPT CHANCES ISOLD. CENTRAL
FA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MADE SOME VERY MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE AM...KEEPING ANY
POPS NORTH OF I-94...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE POPS FOR THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL 88D/METARS SHOW -SHRA MOVING INTO DVL BASIN EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO VCNTY KHZE. BASED ON CURRENT/FCST MOVEMENT AND HI-
RES MODEL FCST HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD -SHRA INTO CENTRAL RRV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA/TSRA CLUSTER MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST NODAK AND FORECAST TO ENTER CWFA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. HAVE STARTED THE MORNING WITH SHRA AS CURRENTLY NO
LIGHTNING AND THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY ATTM. SUSPECT THE BEST
RISK FOR TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF CWFA PER NAM12 DEPICTION
OF SHOWALTERS AND ML CAPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MONDAYS WITH WAA AND HIGHER HEIGHTS.

FOR TONIGHT HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FAR NORTHEAST CWFA IN PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY...WEAK INSTABILITY AND 700 WAA. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL MOIST INCREASE EXPECT LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION FROM FLAT WEST-
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS WELL ADVERTISED STRONGER WAVE IMPACTS
REGION. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN WESTERN HIGH PLAINS GENERATES
INCREASING MOIST FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY ROUGHLY
EAST/WEST ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM THE TRI-STATE AREA INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. HAVE PLACED
BEST RISKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY BY LATER WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A
RELATIVELY LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER PART OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AM CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR AN ONGOING CONVECTIVE
EVENT OVER LARGE PARTS OR THE REGION. GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND FORCING...FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
OVER THE CWFA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MODEST RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

AS LOW MOVES OFF THURSDAY EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO END FAIRLY
EARLY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF FAIRLY QUIET
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...AND INCLUDED THE LOW POPS
THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING SOME
PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. THINK HOWEVER THAT THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAY 7 WHEN THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO MN EARLY THIS AFTN AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO BJI/TVF AREAS. FAR WILL BE SCT-BKN THROUGH
THE MID AFTERNOON AS SOME VFR CIGS TO THE NORTH COULD SINK INTO
THEIR AERODROME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...EWENS/JR
AVIATION...SPEICHER





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