Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230104
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
704 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TWEAKED POPS AND PRECIP TYPE A BIT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY OR
RISING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT WITH SOME SPOTS STILL NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK AND SOME SPOTTY ICE ON ROADS BEING REPORTED BY
ND DOT...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR RIGHT NOW. MODELS HAVE
TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING OFF THIS EVENING AND A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
LATER ON OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE AND WILL
TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THE UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE DENSE FOG ACROSS BARNES COUNTY HAS IMPROVED ACCORDING TO
WEB CAMS...AND WILL LET THAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4PM.

ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL
12Z)...A FEW SITES STILL AT 32F...WITH OTHERS UP TO 34F. ROADS ARE
MOSTLY WET NOW...BUT IMAGINE SECONDARY ROADS ARE STILL ICY IN
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. THERE REMAINS
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING. FORCING (850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION) WILL BE INCREASING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE
EVENING AS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH STRONGER RETURNS FROM
COOPERSTOWN TO THIEF RIVER FALLS. NOT SURE OF THE PTYPE...WHICH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS ALOFT (MOIST OR DRY?). IF ICE
NUCLEI CAN BE INTRODUCED EXPECT SNOW...IF NOT EXPECT FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LIKELY WILL BE A MIX...WHICH WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS (AGAIN). NEXT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR PTYPE
AND INCREASE/DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY (WILL GO AROUND AN
INCH FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING). THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF ICE ACCRETION ON POWER LINES...SO IF MORE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OCCURS THIS MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW/INVERTED (SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA) THIS EVENING. THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP JUST WEST OF THE FA...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

TO THE EAST...LIKELY WILL BE SNOW MIXING IN WITH DRIZZLE BY TUESDAY
MORNING...JUST NOT SURE WHEN. FORCING IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TO THE
WEST...AND WARM AIR WILL LAST LONGER...AND ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING
OF SNOW (MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OR TWO DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
SWITCH-OVER TO SNOW AND IF/WHERE ANY STRONGER BANDS SET UP ON
TUESDAY).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STAY MILD TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT INTO MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW AS THE JET CORE PASSES ACROSS SRN CANADA. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A TRAILING
TROF CROSSING THE REGION. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....UPPER TROF DIGGING IN OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS AND DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NE INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN. MODELS PLACE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH ACCOMPANYING PCPN CHANCES. SOME QUESTION ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND ATTM...BUT LOOKING AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
PCPN ACROSS LAKES COUNTRY BACK TOWARD SE ND. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
IN BEHIND THE LOW...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT A FEW SPOTS CAME UP TO
MVFR. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW CIGS AND SOME VIS DROPPING DOWN TO
1 TO 2SM WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO PICK UP ABOVE 12 KTS LATE
IN THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT THINK THERE COULD BE SOME REDUCED VIS
THANKS TO THE WIND EVEN AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR AND LOWER THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






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