Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Starting to see some fog forming across portions of the Devils
Lake region and northern Red River Valley. So far observations
have been bouncing around quite a bit in this area, but there are
some quarter mile visibilities at times. Will add the fog into
the forecast into early Monday morning for the Red River Valley
and points west and will continue to monitor.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Cloud cover the main issue for tonight. Stratocu and 925-850 mb
moisture covers the area, but there are holes in the clouds and a
continued trend in clearing from the north into NE ND and also
noted is thinning of clouds in cntrl ND. All in all will play it
conservative with clearing but do allow at least for some. Blended
with neighboring offices for sky cover. Temps tonight 30-33 range
in most areas. Could be a bit lower if clear for longer periods.
Fog was persistent under the sfc high in Saskatchewan today and
with high pressure axis moving into cntrl ND late tonight risk of
fog there for cntrl ND with main threat appearing to be just west
and southwest of the fcst area. But something to watch esp if
skies clear out a lot more than think.

Various short term models indicate some visibilities lowering in
fog in that Minot to Jamestown-Bismarck area.

Monday will see some high level cloud cover. Sfc high moves into
northern Minnesota with light winds there Monday while winds turn
southeast and increase to 15-20 kts in E ND.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Forecast for the extended time frame trends from a high confidence
to start to low confidence by the end of the week. Monday night into
Tuesday will see rain chances increase from south to north with
increasing PWats as slow moving short wave traverses across the
central plains. Rain may linger Wednesday in the eastern areas.
Rainfall totals in the southern valley are most likely going to
range from a quarter to a half inch. A mostly dry period is forecast
through the rest of the work week with model solns differing on
timing and strength of the next wave sometime Friday or Saturday.
Will keep the chance PoPs this weekend. Temperatures for the period
will be around end of October normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

So far the only TAF site that has seen fog has been KDVL, and
vsbys there have really been bouncing around. Other sites have
just been clear with light winds so far. At this point, think KDVL
may keep the worst of the fog into early Monday morning. Otherwise
will just toss in a TEMPO group for fog around sunrise at the
other TAF sites. Unless some stratus also develops, it appears
that cirrus will be the only other clouds around. Winds look
pretty light into most of Monday.




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