Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230233
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
933 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

There still may be a little drizzle along a band from the Upper
and Lower Red Lakes to Hillsboro. This thin band produced some
light drizzle as it went through Grand Forks earlier. Otherwise
clouds are slowly pushing southward as expected, with clearing
approaching Devils Lake and Grand Forks. Will take the longest to
get to the southern Red River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Water vapor loop indicated upper low was over MN/MAN border and was
moving east about 15 knots. Upper low will move to the New England
coast by Thu afternoon. Instability remains over the southeast
zones. Downdraft capes were running better than a 1000j/kg.
However mid level lapse rates were not very impressive.

Surface mixing ratios were decreasing post frontal in the southern
zones. Convective temps were in the low to mid 70s in the southeast.
Radar indicated showers and isolated thunder roughly east of line
from DTL to Greenbush MN. New development was occurring in Clay
county. Threat of severe weather is possible over the southeast
zones for the next couple hours then severe threat moves out of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Thursday night surface high will shift east setting up return
flow/warm advection. This should hold minimum temperatures close to
average from 55 to 60.

Warm frontal boundary will lift northward through the forecast area
Friday as surface low pressure organizes over the northern high
plains. There is an outside chance of some light pcpn developing
north of the boundary however as convective inhibition increases
think chances are low. Otherwise increasing humid conditions setting
up as low level moisture flux increases. Temperatures should be able
to recover to at or above average.

Convective initiation and location Friday night will hinge on how
far north boundary gets and when cap goes. Favored location at this
time looks to be across the north half of the fa with severe storms
likely with sufficient convective parameters and strength of low
level jet.

Will likely see ongoing pcpn Saturday am again with best chances
across the north.  Far eastern fa looks to have a narrow window for
severe storms Saturday afternoon before cold front pushes through.

Saturday night and into Sunday will see some wrap around rain across
the north as surface low tracks across southern MB and into Ontario.

Early next week looks dry and cooler as high pressure builds in
and region transitions into nw flow aloft.

Models diverge on solutions for rain potential midweek but based on
pattern favor drier solution at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

The KTVF AWOS is down for planned maintenance until Friday
afternoon, so have added the AMD NOT SKED to the bottom of the
TAF. Basically will keep writing the TAF using nearby information,
but it is impossible to know what is going on locally. Seeing some
MVR conditions here and there, and this could still affect KFAR
and KTVF into the early evening. Otherwise expecting ceilings to
rise as these clouds push south. Winds look to become light by mid
evening.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Godon



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