Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND PRECIP
HAS ENDED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SE ND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WC/NW MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...BUT OVERALL THE MAIN IDEA STILL HOLDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS EXPECTED. 700MB LOW SITS ACROSS
THE FERGUS FALLS/ELBOW LAKE AREA...WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT (OR BECOME MORE
ELONGATED). THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING FORCING GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED POPS TO 100% WHERE IT IS RAINING...AND
USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING. ALSO...INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. SEBEKA OBSERVER REPORTED 0.76
INCHES...AND WOULD THINK ANOTHER 0.75 INCHES LIKELY GIVEN ANOTHER
6-9 HRS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AT FAR AND BJI THROUGH AROUND 22Z TO 02Z
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE THE VFR CIGS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. NO STEADY PRECIP EXPECTED
AT TVF/GFK ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...WHILE DVL AREA SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER


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