Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level
jet around the south and east sides of the trough will shift east
today. Height fall better than 100M will move into the forecast
area after sunset Wed. Stronger upper level jet will round the
base of the trough and into the area after 06z Wed. Model soundings
indicate an inversion until mid-late afternoon. Severe weather is
expected from mid afternoon into the evening. Good shear profiles
and decent amount of instability is forecast for the
afternoon/evening along with the dynamics.

Fog loop indicated low clouds covered the forecast area this
morning Low clouds should dissipate mainly in the southern
zones by late morning/early afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Most of the Friday to Monday time frame continues to feature south
to southwest flow at 500mb. At the surface, a persistent boundary
will set up from southwest to northeast through the FA. Because the
500mb flow is more south-southwest than true southwest, this surface
boundary will not move eastward very much each day. Therefore,
periodic waves of energy are expected to ride up the 500mb flow and
interact with the surface boundary and produce a pretty wet period.
The entire four days may not wet, as some brief dry periods will
also mix in, but it will generally be wet. With the surface boundary
moving a little eastward each day, the Devils Lake region may get
out of the wet pattern a little earlier than other areas. With a
steady amount of cloud cover expected with the rain, temperatures
will generally stay on the cooler side.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Most locations to be either in MVFR and IFR ceilings as the night
progresses with areas of fog west of the RRV and in WC MN. Slow
improvement Tuesday midday. South-southeast winds 15 to 30
kts...gusting over 30 kts in the RRV Tuesday midday/aftn.




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