541
FXUS64 KJAN 071922
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
222 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

For the Tonight to Friday June 14th periods...Near term forecast
will remain very quiet with deep layer dry air in place. Tonight
will be a cool night with most areas seeing MinT in the 60-65
degree range. A few localized areas could drop into the upper 50s
as rad cooling will be maximized. Saturday will be warm, but
humidity will be held in check. It will be a very similar day as
today.

For Sunday, pattern change starts as we see the ridge begin to break
down. The surface high will weaken and shift more east. As a result,
lower level flow will become westerly on Sunday. When this happens,
we typically see our warmest temperatures. Additionally, moisture
will return and we will see Td get back into the 70-74 range. This
is all occurring just ahead of a surface front as well, which also
supports the peak in potential heating. Due to this, look for
widespread mid 90s for MaxT. Peak heat index values look to peak
around 100-103 for most areas with only a few small areas around
105. We can give it another cycle or two...but may be a time to add
a threat in the HWO for "Limited" heat threat as we could see more
areas peak with Heat Index values of 103-105. As for PoPs and storm
chances...we look to be protected by a cap and still some decent dry
air aloft, esp across our S 2/3rds. However, just to our N, there
will be some moisture pooling ahead of the noted surface front and
we will see a wave move into the area later on Sunday. This should
help increase rain/storm chances. Guidance PoPs for us remain too
low and have opted to boost chances across our N 1/3rd to better fit
the scenario. Additionally, a few strong/severe storms seem possible
and we could get a risk added in the next forecast cycle.

Monday into Friday...The pattern will be changing some by early week
as we see the more prominent ridge break down and get squashed
southward. This will be due to the Great Lakes low/eastern CONUS
trough that develops. This will allow for a weak front to enter the
area and provide a focus for increased rain/storm chances, esp by
Tue-Wed as we see a more pronounced wave that looks to develop more
of a lingering shear zone aloft as energy gets caught between mid
level ridge features. Due to this, guidance PoPs are best Tue-Wed
and mostly for central/southern parts of the forecast area. Storm
activity looks to be more of typical summer and not much potential
for anything strong as lapse rates look tame due to warm mid-level
temps.

The rest of the week has more uncertainty as sensible weather will
be driven by the position of any upper low or further lingering
shear axis. the past 12 hrs there was a eastward shift in
positioning...but latest data coming in maybe shifting back more
west. We have time to see how this evolves and it is always a
challenge to predict such an evolution, esp at days 6-7. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Quiet TAF period with VFR conditions prevailing. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  92  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      60  92  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     63  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   63  95  71  96 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       66  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    64  92  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     62  91  70  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/