557
FXUS62 KJAX 241713
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
113 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast is mostly on track. New models show chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms about 10% lower for NE FL than
what was previously anticipated. SE GA is still seeing chances
from 15-30% for the afternoon and into the evening with NE FL
having its highest chance (around 20%) between 8-10pm. Partly
cloudy skies with temperatures in the low to mid 90s with
overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

A progressive warming trend today with low chances (15-25%) of
afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms generally
east of Highway 301 corridor where sea breezes merge under a
passing mid level short wave trough. Synoptic scale models and MOS
are not overly excited about rainfall potential this afternoon,
however, high resolution CAMs and convective ingredients including
above normal PWAT of 1.5-1.8 inches and diurnal instability
profiles favor at least low end rain chance inclusion with forcing
from both the passing short wave and sea breezes. Higher rain
chances will focus across SE GA while drier mid level air across
NE FL will limit convective coverage and depth.

Prevailing westerly steering flow will bring a more dominant west
coast sea breeze, with the hottest daytime temperatures and
thermal low focused toward the I-95 corridor as high temperatures
range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values near 100
degrees.

Any resultant early evening convection will drift offshore of the
local coast by 10 pm, trailed by dry conditions overnight. Patchy
inland fog will be possible across the Suwannee River Valley
where moisture advected inland with the west coast sea breeze and
also where any rainfall recently occurred. Mild low temperatures
will also trend above normal ranging from the mid 60s well inland
to low/mid 70s along the St. Johns River basin and Atlantic coast.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Surface ridge axis extends across central FL as upper ridging
extends across the GOMEX. Prevailing westerly steering flow will
bring a more dominant west coast sea breeze, with the hottest
daytime temperatures focused toward the I-95 corridor each
afternoon as high temperatures range in the low to mid 90s with
heat index values around 100 degrees. Upper shortwaves traverse
the ridge and pass through the region from north to south on
Saturday. This will trigger isolated to scattered showers and
storms during the afternoon and evening, mainly across SE GA with
a outflow boundary shifting southward and enhancing convection
along the sea breeze collisions along the I-95 corridor.
Convection wanes in the evening with the loss of daytime heating
as the potential outflow boundary crosses into NE FL. Drier
conditions expected on Sunday with a few showers over SE GA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Ridging sinks southward as a cold front moves through the Deep
South on Monday. Mostly dry and hot conditions expected on Monday
where highs will be pushing the mid/upper 90s under breezier SW
flow, with little relief from the east coast sea breeze. Scattered
showers and storms spread across the area from the northwest on
Tuesday as the front moves southward into NE FL. The front then
stalls over central FL Wednesday into Thursday focusing convection
to areas south of I-10. Drier and `cooler` air filters into SE GA
in the wake of the front as a surface ridge builds WNW of the
region. The drier air mass will bring a return of cool morning
lows in the 60s for the latter half of next week. Highs will then
range from the upper 80s in SE GA to the low 90s in NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected for most TAF sites, with the
exception of some Saturday early morning fog for VQQ, which should
dissipate by 12Z. Best chance for vicinity thunderstorms will
occur for SSI this evening from 22-02Z. Chances around 10 percent
for VCTS for JAX, VQQ, and CRG exist but not enough confidence to
include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

High pressure will extend across central Florida today, then shift
across south Florida Saturday as a front drifts southward across
Georgia. Prevailing SSW winds will become onshore today and
Saturday in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. High
pressure builds northward across Florida on Sunday, then another
front moves southward across the waters late Monday through
Tuesday with an increase in thunderstorm potential.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today. For Saturday, Moderate Risk for
NE FL beaches and Low risk for SE GA beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Moderate river flooding is forecast next due to `backwater` is
forecast to begin sometime Friday for the Santa Fe at Three
Rivers Estates (lower Santa Fe basin). The Satilla River basin
remains in Minor Flood stage and portions of the Suwannee are
expected to rise into Minor Flood stage by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  95 /  10  40  10  10
SSI  74  90  73  90 /  20  30  20  10
JAX  71  94  72  95 /  20  20  20  10
SGJ  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10
GNV  68  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$