069
FXUS64 KLCH 130356
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1056 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

High pressure ridging over the region and somewhat dry air moving
in from the north have both worked together to bring about a very
dry an clear night. Expect much of the same overnight into
tomorrow morning.

The inherited grids package is on track with latest observations
and no updates were made.

11/Calhoun

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)

Wx map shows surface high pressure ridge extending from the Eastern
U.S. to the Gulf coast giving our region east northeast winds.
Weak nearly stationary frontal boundary near the coastline this
afternoon with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s south of I-10,
dropping off into the 60s along and north of I-10. Due to the dry
air, afternoon temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to lower
90s. Radar showing isolated showers and a few thunderstorms along
the South Central Louisiana coast this afternoon, not much elsewhere.
Latest blended guidance shows not much more development inland,
with most activity staying south of I-10 near the coast.

Lowering chances of precipitation is expected tonight through
Thursday night as the slightly drier air at the surface and aloft
prevails. With the dry air in place, overnight lows in the lower
to mid 60s north of I-10, upper 60s to near 70 elsewhere. Afternoon
high temperatures in the lower 90s. Overnight lows Thursday night
expected in the mid to upper 60s north of I-10, 70 to lower 70s
further south.

By Friday, the mid to upper level ridge over Mexico & Texas expected
to begin building eastward, exhibiting more influence and subsidence
over our region. As a result, afternoon high temperatures expected
to rise into the mid to possibly upper 90s in a few locations.
With the somewhat drier air remaining in place, expect maximum
heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s. Little
if any chances of precipitation inland, with only low chances of
showers across the far offshore coastal waters.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)

High pressure aloft will be centered over the lower
Mississippi Valley and sliding east at the beginning of the weekend.
Also at the beginning of the weekend, an inverted trough over the
gulf will be headed west around the southern edge of the ridge. A
drier airmass will still be in place to start Saturday, however
moisture will increase through the weekend into early next week.
PWATs are anticipated to be around 1.5" early Saturday and increase
to around 2" by Sunday afternoon. Generally dry conditions with
temperatures above climo norms can be anticipated Saturday with
scattered to numerous showers possible Sunday.

NHC has the southern gulf/Bay of Campeche highlighted for possible
development from the weekend into early next. The upper ridge is
expected to slip to the Atlantic coast driving the inverted trough
toward the Mexico and Texas coasts. The forecast will be dependent
on the eventual evolution of this inverted trough. Even if any
development does or does not occur in the southern gulf, moisture is
expected to increase into next week as the northern extent of the
trough moves by. Multiple days of high rain chances can be
anticipated for the local area Sunday into the middle of the coming
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A few isolated showers are lingering near BPT as well as clouds at
about 5000 to 5500 ft along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.
These showers should end in the next hours and shouldn`t be of any
consequence to BPT.

A boundary spanning from southeast Texas to the Gulf right off of
Louisiana is the culprit behind these low clouds. The lower
ceilings may hang around through early morning and BPT/ARA may
experience some light ground fog due to rainfall from today.
Forecaster confidence in fog development is very low and thus was
not included in area TAFs. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is
anticipated around and after sunrise, but as daytime heating and
mixing take place, these clouds should lift and clear by
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light, variable winds through the morning and a
northeast wind during daytime hours. Winds along the coastline
will turn to the south later in the day with the seabreeze
boundary. Winds diminish with sundown once again.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...

Light east to northeast flow will prevail through Friday in the
wake of a weak frontal boundary across the coastal waters. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the
boundary this evening and overnight, with diminishing chances
Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances increase significantly
Sunday night through most of next week as moisture from the
Southern Gulf of Mexico advances northward. Increasing onshore
winds and seas can be expected during this period, with Small
Craft Advisories possible.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  91  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  70  92  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  70  92  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
BPT  74  93  73  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11