Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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942 FXUS64 KMAF 010526 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The dry line has pushed well into New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon as result of a low level westward push of moisture. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening for mainly the Davis mountains and potentially for plains areas well north of Midland. Convective activity along the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains and Guadalupe mountains will shift eastward the next several hours to generate a the isolated storm coverage. The remainder of the region remains dry, with strong capping in place with little to no storm development expected. Temperatures will remain cooler. Widespread thunderstorm activity will return on Saturday as an upper level trough passing through the region helps enhance thunderstorm development along the dryline straddling region. There will be a threat of large hail, winds, and a few tornados with these storms in the afternoon into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Sunday will see diminished chances for thunderstorms as drier and more stable air flow pattern begins to take hold. The dryline will retreat to the east toward San Angelo and Abilene, leaving much of the area from Midland westward dry with southwest winds and mostly clear skies. The drying trend will continue on Monday as the dryline shifts further to the east with a dry breezy west flow occurring over much of west Texas. Temperatures on both Sunday and Monday will be near seasonal values with lower to mid 90s for afternoon readings. For Tuesday through Thursday dry conditions will continue across west Texas, but with much warmer temperatures. A strong ridge of high pressure will build over west Texas and New Mexico, setting up a stable subsidence pattern that will cause afternoon temperatures to rise well into the 100s for much of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos area. Heat stress concerns will be a potential impact for those days. The high will shift more to the east next Friday, allowing a stronger southerly flow that will bring moisture back into the region for a chance of Thunderstorms. Temperatures will also moderate and decline several degrees back closer to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Ongoing TS near HOB is moving south towards MAF. It is not expected to reach the terminal but will closely monitor. MVFR CIGs are expected to develop for about 6 hours near 12Z and dissipating before 18Z at most sites. TS is possible again near CNM/PEQ where VCTS is in the TAFs and these storms could approach the other sites as well. Hennig && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Elevated fire danger west of the dryline on this afternoon, including most of the Davis Mountains, Guadalupe Range, and Eddy County Plains. Min RH 5-12% and east winds 10 to 15 mph. ERCs remain quite high above the 90th percentile in those areas. Lightning starts will be possible on Saturday as the dryline shifts further west and thunderstorm chances across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico will pose a risk for the elevated terrain and forested areas. Conditions dry out quickly again early next week with stronger west flow and warmer temperatures due to the strengthening of high pressure aloft. Critical conditions possible Monday/Tuesday if forecasted winds remain breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 67 92 71 101 / 40 20 10 0 Carlsbad 65 101 67 101 / 20 10 0 0 Dryden 72 96 74 103 / 30 10 0 10 Fort Stockton 69 99 70 105 / 30 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 65 92 67 91 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 64 95 64 100 / 30 10 0 0 Marfa 58 96 58 97 / 20 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 68 93 71 101 / 30 10 10 0 Odessa 69 93 72 102 / 30 10 10 0 Wink 70 101 69 105 / 30 10 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...10