Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 010318
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1018 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours with a high cloud or two
in an otherwise very dry AMS. SW flow overnight will veer to W
Monday afternoon and become a little gusty, before return flow
resumes after sunset Monday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 709 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

UPDATE...

Updated for the expiration of the Wind Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Winds have begun to decrease this evening, with speeds dropping
below Advisory criteria for most locations across the Van Horn/Hwy
54 Corridor, Davis Mountains, and the Marfa Plateau. While a few
higher gusts may be possible over the next hour or two, mainly
across higher terrain in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, the
overall trend will be for winds to continue to diminish. Thus, the
Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire as scheduled. Updated
products will be out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail.  Gusty westerly flow will decouple after
sunset, and gradually subside next 24 hours, w/a couple of high
clouds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over OK this morning will move NE with upper ridge
building in from west.  The next upper trough will dive out of
Canada Tuesday and strengthen as it digs across the Central Plains
Wednesday passing to the east Thursday.  High pressure once again
returns behind it.

As sunshine returns to the area with west wind that will come back
around to the south by Tuesday.  Temperatures recovering from recent
strong cold front will climb through Tuesday.  Will see return of
highs in the 90s. Next cold front arrives Wednesday and will
knock highs back into the 70s. Temps warm into the next weekend.

Strong wind on backside of upper low may result in windy conditions
across the western slopes of the higher elevations... will continue
wind advisory this afternoon for Van Horn region... Davis Mtns...
and Marfa Plateau.  GDP may briefly flirt with high wind this
afternoon but should be short lived.

Will have low rain chances Wednesday mainly east with upper trough
and front.  Otherwise forecast dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
It has become breezy across west Texas and southeast New Mexico
early this afternoon. Rh/s were dropping into the teens in the
mountains, Big Bend and the upper Trans Pecos. Expecting these
areas to reach Red Flag Criteria shortly as gusty 20 foot winds
generally increase to 20 mph or greater and rh/s dip to 15 percent
or less for at least a few hours. Elsewhere despite the increasing
winds, rh/s will likely not remain at or below 15 percent for any
extended duration. Conditions will improve by sunset as winds
diminish significantly with loss of diurnal mixing. Rh recovery
tonight is expected to be mainly poor west of the Pecos River
and fair east.

Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal values Monday
with min rh/s dropping to 6 to 15 percent areawide. The mid to
upper level flow is forecast to relax significantly however as
an upper level storm system shifts east of the forecast area,
so critical fire weather is not expected. A Fire danger statement
may be needed in and near the mountains where winds will be more
elevated. Rh recovery Monday night will generally be poor west of
the Pecos River and fair east.

More dry weather with stronger flow could result in near critical to
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon across the Guadalupe
Mountains and the southeast New Mexico Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  84  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       45  86  51  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  92  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  88  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  82  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  82  42  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  86  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         49  85  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           45  88  52  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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