Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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385
FXUS64 KMAF 200507
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1207 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Elevated winds
will become lighter tonight and shift towards the west Wednesday
morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms for FST Wednesday
afternoon but do not have enough confidence to put mention of TSRA
in at the moment.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

Today the dryline will be less distinct this far s and the models
have trended dwpnts lower farther e across the PB this PM. Across
the BB/Lower Trans Pecos regions low level mstr holds in place in
wake of this mornings precip. The general trend in guidance
including CAMs is for less convection. We too will trend PoPs
down this PM, but not remove. Across the BB/Lower Trans Pecos the
atmosphere will have to hurry to recover, but there are
indications of a shrtwv trof in water vapor imagery in NW
Chihuahua, MX. We expect there will be a narrow corridor of
sufficient SB instability behind exiting clouds/precip and e of
the drier air from BB/Lower Trans Pecos into the far NE CWFA for
storms this afternoon/evening. A few strong to severe storms will
be possible. High based clouds and steep LR`s favors gusty wind
and some hail. Precip will dissipate with loss of daytime heating
probably around 03Z. By Wed mid level flow is a little more sw and
convective potential will mostly be confined to the Trans Pecos
and in the very far ern CWFA early in the evening. More of the
same Thur, mid level flow will be even more sw and low level mstr
will be able to hold in farther w, thus a slight chance of tstms
is warranted across the PB. 5h heights will slowly fall into Thur,
but despite this 85h temps/thermal ridge will remain amplified
and above normal temps will persist. By Fri/Sat said thermal ridge
is much less so across the most of the PB, thus cooler. Farther w
across SE NM underneath the more substantial mid level height
falls there will be a better chance of storms as 90-100kt (Fri)
and 75kt (Sat) 3h jets come out across NM resulting in much better
chance for storms SE NM into the Trans Pecos, even on Sunday. Of
course we`ll wait and see but there are some indications in the
deterministic models and ensemble data (NAEFS) that the trof to
west will eventually be cutoff from nrn stream with split flow
developing. Nrn stream may drive a front s and srn stream provides
jet energy setting up a favorable pattern for rain Sun-Tue?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  99  70  90 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       66  96  68  92 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         74 100  73  92 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  72  96  70  91 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 66  85  67  85 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          66  93  66  87 /   0  10  10  30
Marfa                          61  89  60  87 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           74  98  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
Odessa                         73  98  70  90 /  10  20  10  10
Wink                           71  99  70  93 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/



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