Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 171734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1134 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions will remain VFR but persistent low clouds in the
3500-4500ft range will continue into at least early afternoon.
Otherwise the wind will remain southerly in the 10-25kt range.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures will begin to warm today as weak northwest flow aloft
gradually shifts the chilly arctic airmass in control over the
region slowly eastward.  High temperatures this afternoon will still
be 10-15 degrees below normal though.  A shortwave trough within the
northwest flow aloft will translate southeastward out of the
southern Rockies and become a weak cutoff low over southwest
Texas/Mexico tonight.  Moisture through the atmospheric column is
pretty scarce, but there may be enough mid level moisture to squeeze
out a few light showers/flurries late tonight/Thursday morning.
Then again, the lower levels of the atmosphere are so dry, think not
much will make it to the ground over the Van Horn area, Marfa
Plateau, Davis Mountains, Presidio Valley and Big Bend region.  Will
go ahead and insert some flurries/light rain this evening in these
areas, then flurries/light freezing rain late tonight a bit further
east.  Impacts are expected to be minimal, if not nonexistent.

A real warming trend will begin Thursday, with temperatures rising
to within 5-10 degrees of normal Thursday, then 5-10 above Friday
under southwesterly flow aloft, and surface lee trough development.
Even warmer temperatures are expected Saturday before the next upper
storm system moves over the region and brings a slightly cooler
airmass over the area.  The forecast will remain dry during these
periods which will contribute to growing fire weather concerns
Friday through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  21  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  19  54  26 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         41  25  49  27 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  24  52  33 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  23  51  33 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          40  17  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          45  20  56  23 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  21  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         41  20  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           43  19  52  26 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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