Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 121715
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be elevated and gusty out of the south southeast this
afternoon before weakening after sunset.  There is a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, especially for PEQ.
Some low ceilings will come near MAF Sunday morning but are not
expected to impact the terminal.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014/

UPDATE...

Have adjusted PoPs and cloud coverage through this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

An inverted ua trough over the region this morning will translate
slowly westward today and tonight.  A variety of cloud cover was
seen over the area this morning due to this upper feature, which
will continue throughout the day.  Expect we will see sufficient
heating by this afternoon for showers and thunderstorms to develop
along and east of the inverted ua tough axis, within a low level
easterly upslope regime.  Instability will crop up, but only on the
order of 500 to 750 J/Kg in and near the Guadalupe, Davis and Glass
Mountains in particular.  Expect scattered thunderstorm coverage in
these areas, with more isolated showers and storms further eastward
over the Trans Pecos.  Shear is paltry and mid level lapse rates all
of moist adiabatic.  Despite these unfavorable parameters, think a
few storms could produce gusty winds near 55 mph, along with small
hail and moderate rainfall.  Also think locally heavy rainfall could
occur in and around the Davis Mountains where low level moisture is
progged to be the best, and due to PWats approaching 1.5 in.  Will
send an update to rearrange PoPs a little through this afternoon,
and adjust sky coverage and dewpoints.  An update will follow
shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99






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