Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Another hot day underway with temperatures at or near 100 already
across the region. Tropical Storm Cindy will continue to weaken
over E TX while the upper ridge remains in tact over the Desert
SW. These systems have combined to bring northerly flow aloft over
the past few days and this will continue into the weekend. Storms
were able to make it to the I-20 corridor last night before
weakening and expect something similar tonight. Should see a
stronger LLJ tonight with plenty of instability left over from the
very hot temperatures today. These factors would support
convection at least making it down to the northern half of the CWA
overnight so have increased PoPs slightly. Expect another very
hot day for much of the area Friday ahead of a cold front. This
front may reach northern portions of the Permian Basin before peak
heating so will keep these locations slightly cooler than
everyone else. Otherwise, expect many sites to once again reach
Heat Advisory criteria. Will go ahead and extend the advisory into
Friday for areas we are most confident in temperatures reaching
criteria.

Thunderstorms look like a good bet late Friday as a shortwave rounds
the upper ridge and combines will strong instability and the above
mentioned cold front. Shear values look fairly high for this time of
year too so strong to severe storms will be a possibility. PWATs
will be above 1" so heavy rain could cause localized flash flooding
as well. Strong gap winds look like a possibility through Guadalupe
Pass behind the front Friday night and Saturday. Guidance has
been overdoing winds there with the last couple of fronts so will
mention in the HWO for now, but High Wind products may be needed.
Much cooler conditions are expected behind the front this weekend
with highs in the 80`s and 90`s. The upper ridge flattens a bit
early next week, but we retain the north to northwest flow aloft.
Low level moisture will stay in place and disturbances moving
south around the ridge will keep the chance of rain in the
forecast into early next week. The upper ridge reasserts itself
over our area late next week so expect warming temperatures and
slightly drier conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76 102  69  83 /  20  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       75 105  70  84 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                         77 106  77  89 /   0  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  79 108  72  86 /   0  10  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 76 100  65  77 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          73  99  66  81 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          70 103  69  84 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           79 106  70  86 /  10  20  40  20
Odessa                         79 105  69  86 /  10  20  40  20
Wink                           76 108  71  88 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Friday for Big Bend Area-
     Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Heat Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     Glasscock-Reagan-Terrell.

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Gaines.

&&

$$

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