445
FXUS62 KMHX 190800
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
400 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of
the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal
system late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Lingering isolated light rain is mainly
east of hwy 17, decreasing through the rest of this morning. NE
flow will keep lows near 60 inland and for NOBX, increasing to
the mid 60s at the Crystal Coast. Instability remains non-
existent with NE flow, but weak forcing is anticipated in the
afternoon as an elevated back door cold front treks through the
region from the north. For this reason, a few pop up weak
showers are possible in the afternoon and evening Sunday.
Minimal QPF is expected from these showers. This has been
handled by Schc PoPs for light showers south of hwy 264 where
the moisture profile is a bit more impressive, and no
mentionable PoPs to the north. With low level clouds decreasing
for the coastal plain in the afternoon, we should warm up to
near 70 inland despite the cooling NE flow. Coolest spot will be
NOBX where the NE flow and stubborn cloud cover keeps temps
near or just above 60 for the high Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Quiet night in store with dry conditions
and lows in the mid to upper 50s. While winds lighten over
inland ENC, the low offshore paired with the high building in
from the north keeps OBX and Inner Banks breezy through the
night. Low level cloud cover starts building in from the north
and east through the night

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the
first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the
west toward the latter half of the week.

Monday...High pres noses into ENC, while low pres spins well off
the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting
in from the Atlantic on cont nerly flow, keeping temps cooler
than climo, and cont mo cloudy skies. Highs range from the mid
60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday,
along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in
the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise
through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may
flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to
start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Saturday...Next potential weather maker in the
form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive
by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region
with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of
disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.
Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the
afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil
shower chances overnight and morning periods.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/...
As of 2 AM Sunday...Ceilings have lowered to IFR/LIFR and
visibilities are MVFR/IFR behind the showers moving south and
east with the warm front. Ceilings will recover slowly tomorrow,
transitioning to MVFR in the afternoon, and VFR late evening
into Sunday night. Closer to OBX, low ceilings will persist
through Sunday due to NE flow from the low offshore. A second
wave of low cloud cover will be moving in from the north later
Sunday night, but coverage is expected to remain SCT at this
point. NE winds increase to around 10-15 kt across the coastal
plain and 15-20 kt across the OBX. Slight chance of light rain
and showers developing for southern terminals (OAJ, ISO, EWN) in
the afternoon Sunday, but a lack of instability will prevent
convection from becoming deep enough for significant impacts.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through
mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or
lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon
night, as nerly flow cont.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Gusty NE`rly flow from the low offshore
and high building in from the north result in wind gusts near 25
kts and building seas through the short term. Small craft
advisories are in place for all waters but the Pamlico River for
Sunday into Monday to account for this NE`rly surge. Seas will
be at 5-7ft for the coastal waters off of Hatteras Island and
Ocracoke through the short term, highest in the vicinity of the
Gulf Stream

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound
and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds
keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft
Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long
fetch nerly winds diminish.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     Monday night for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     Monday night for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ