128
FXUS64 KOHX 270111
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
811 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

One final round of severe weather approaches this evening as a MCS
surges SE. Latest CAMs show a bowing line draping over Middle TN
after 02z tonight. The greatest threat with this line of storms
will be straight line winds and hail. That being said, models
continue to show favorable parameters for all severe hazards
tonight. The 00z balloon launch does show a strong cap, but
forcing from the line and moistening of the low levels should be
enough to erode away this cap. With already saturated soils,
flooding will also be a concern with any periods of prolonged
heavy rain. Storm will continue to work SE through the early
morning, exiting the Mid State by mid morning on Monday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

With convection moving across Upper Cumberland Region presently
and moving into northwestern portions of our area around
noontime hour, will continue with Tornado Watch across locations
around and north of I-40 Corridor through 3 PM CDT. When it comes
to latest CAMs, and let`s also throw in latest regional to global
models also, none of them are really doing a good job of
initializing and having a realistic weather pattern evolution
through afternoon hours today. Less cloud coverage noted across
locations south of I-40 Corridor and around and west of I-65
Corridor around noontime hour. Thus many quandaries abound as it
comes to weather pattern evolution as these afternoon hours
progress today. Another upper level shortwave passage is expected
to traverse mid state region this afternoon and that should at
least keep convection as a possibility for locations currently
under the Tornado Watch. Certainly, some of that convection could
be strong to severe, along with brief heavy rainfall potential,
especially in locations that did not experience the morning round
of convection or left over boundaries from this mornings
convection provide a focusing mechanism for convective
development as this afternoon progresses.

While there is much disagreement and uncertainty as it comes to
this afternoons forecast, there continues to be much better
agreement as tonight progresses. Of all models looked over around
noontime hour, best two seem to be a blend of most recent HRRR
model run and latest GFS model solution. Still looking for a
convective complex, MCS form, that may take on more of a linear
structure as nighttime hours progress, to drop down out of
southwestern Ohio River Valley Region/Western KY and into mid
state region generally during a 9 PM CDT to 4 AM CDT time frame.
In taking an average of these two preferred model solution
forecasted sounding profile and associated derived indicies, MU
CAPE values will be around 2,000 J/KG, BRN Shear values around
58m2/s2, right turning hodographs, mid level lapse rates around
7.5 C/km, SRH 0-1 KM & 0-3 KM 300m2/s2, DCAPE values around 1,000
J/KG, with PW values approaching 1.75 inches, and an older
indicies favorite of mine, Total Totals, ranging in the mid 50s
along with negative LI`s in higher negative single digit values.
All modes of severe weather hazards continue to be possible.
Latest SPC Day One Outlook has expanded their enhanced risk of
severe thunderstorm area to entire mid state region. Still however
believe that strong to damaging winds will be main weather hazard
that Middle Tennessee will possibly have to deal with, with large
hail and tornadoes secondary, but not by much. Continued flood
watch for entire mid state region through 7 AM CDT Monday morning
also per previous rounds of showers & thunderstorms that have
occurred and those that look like they are coming through this
afternoon and tonight.

Look for showers and thunderstorms to eventually exit the mid
state region by Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Not much change as it comes to forecast for rest of the week into
upcoming weekend. Dry conditions will finally prevail by Monday
night with a dry surface cold front dropping from north as
Tuesday progresses with broad surface high pressure influences
prevailing. Along with broad upper level troughing across most of
eastern CONUS providing northwesterly flow across our neck of the
woods through at least Thursday, a progression to cooler
temperatures will commence beginning on Monday night with lows by
Wednesday and Thursday Nights spanning the 50s, possibly upper 40s
Cumberland Plateau Region, with highs on Thursday only in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. A
warmup will begin on Friday into first part of next weekend with
temperatures once again several degrees above seasonal normal
values as upper level ridging influences move across our area. As
surface and upper level ridging influences begin to shift
eastward, a more southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern will
develop supporting increased moisture advection across our area
that could result in shower and thunderstorm chances returning to
mid state region as Friday night through the upcoming weekend
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

We will get a break in the action for a few hours but a line of
strong thunderstorms will start to push into the northwest part of
the area after 03z. This line will continue to push east through
11z. IFR/LIFR is expected with the line of thunderstorms due to
low cigs, low vis, heavy rain, and possible gusty winds. MVFR cigs
will linger behind the line through at least 16z. A few scattered
showers will be possible once again tomorrow in eastern areas
after 16z. Southerly winds 10-15 knots shifting more westerly
overnight and northerly tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  85  64  85 /  90  20   0   0
Clarksville    68  82  61  82 /  90  10   0   0
Crossville     63  78  56  77 /  90  50  10  10
Columbia       68  85  61  85 /  90  10   0   0
Cookeville     65  79  58  79 /  90  40  10   0
Jamestown      64  79  57  77 /  90  50   0   0
Lawrenceburg   68  85  61  84 /  90  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   68  85  60  85 /  90  20   0   0
Waverly        67  83  62  84 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Cravens
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Mueller