


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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800 FXUS64 KOHX 130542 AAA AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 1242 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Rain and thunderstorms continue through the weekend, best chances are in the afternoon/evening hours. - Risk of severe weather is low, however, localized heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with isolated stronger storms. - Warmth continues into the work week, with 20 - 40% chance of heat indices greater than 100 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving into Middle Tennessee from the northwest currently. Not expecting any severe weather from this line, and it has pretty quickly become outflow dominant since entering middle Tennessee. Overnight, we could see more isolated showers thanks to how moist the air mass is (and continues to become with moisture advection into the area continuing). For Sunday, a weak shortwave will be approaching our area, as well as a front stalling to our north. More numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected once again, and while the severe threat is low, some localized flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected from stronger storms. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Ridging into the work week favors more warm temperatures and moisture in middle Tennessee. This will lead to continued diurnal rain chances and hot heat indices through at least mid-week. Probabilities for over 100 degree heat indices are around 20 - 40% by mid-week, with higher probability as you get closer to western Tennessee. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s through the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR is expected through at least 18Z although cannot rule out some BR/BCFG developing at KSRB and KCSV from 09Z-13Z. Timing of any TSRA beyond 18Z is too difficult to pinpoint in TAF forecast at this time as coverage and impacts are quite uncertain. Although if TSRA impacts terminals, it will be between 18Z-00Z and brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 93 74 93 75 / 60 20 60 10 Clarksville 90 73 89 73 / 60 40 60 10 Crossville 87 68 88 68 / 50 20 60 10 Columbia 92 72 92 72 / 60 20 60 10 Cookeville 88 70 89 70 / 50 20 60 10 Jamestown 87 68 88 68 / 50 30 60 10 Lawrenceburg 90 71 92 71 / 60 20 50 10 Murfreesboro 93 72 94 72 / 60 20 60 10 Waverly 90 71 89 72 / 60 30 60 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Hurley