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411
FXUS64 KOHX 291114
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
614 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

One last dry day in the forecast ended yesterday, and a series of
troughs will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through
most of the forecast. For today, a shortwave trough will progress
northward from the Gulf coast and increase precip chances through
the day. Models back off precip chances later this evening and
into the overnight hours, especially for areas north of I-40, but
the upper shortwave lingers over the mid state. Kept in mention of
precip chances for most of the area overnight since a few models
show some development continuing into Friday morning.

On Friday, another trough will move eastward from the Plains, and
bring additional precip chances to the area. Better chances for
showers and storms will move in early Saturday morning and through
the day thanks to the larger trough over the Great Lakes bringing
some additional energy through the region. This looks to be the
best shot for some stronger storms as deep layer shear picks up a
bit compared to the previous few days. Instability will be in
place each afternoon thanks to diurnal support, however weaker
flow aloft limited the amount of shear to get stronger storms to
develop. On Saturday, as mentioned before the shear does pick up a
bit, so keeping an eye on Saturday for some possible stronger
convection.

Models continue to back off on precip chances for Sunday, but
enough uncertainty exists to keep mention of showers and storms
with the unsettled pattern aloft. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
Sunday dry should current model solutions pan out, especially for
northern zones. For now, have slight chances north and chance
mention in southern zones on Sunday. Monday will have another
Plains trough bring moisture back to the region and chances for
some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This trough will slowly
progress eastward, so looks to impact the mid state through most
of the work week next week. Best chances for precip from this
trough will be Wednesday afternoon and Thursday as the trough
moves through and drags a cold front behind.

For the Independence Day holiday, some afternoon showers and
storms will be possible, especially with the ECMWF solution, but
look to be diurnally driven with the shortwave trough over the
lower MO River Valley. Therefore, conditions may be dry in the
evening for any outdoor holiday activities, but will see how the
next model runs handle the shortwave trough and lingering
afternoon convection into the evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR flight rules for this TAF cycle. Some MVFR to IFR cigs
are possible Friday morning and could affect all mid-state
terminals. I have removed TS from the prevailing due to the widely
scattered nature of today`s convection. Some AMDs might be
necessary during the late afternoon hours, but the chances of any
one terminals seeing TS today will be small.

Winds speeds will pick up out of the south later this morning.
Gusts of 18-20 kts will be common before relaxing to 8-10 kts
overnight.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Unger