648
FXUS64 KOUN 270918
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
418 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Our brief respite from storms will persist through the day today,
but we will return to an active pattern beginning tonight.

The surface boundary has pushed into north Texas and through the
DFW metroplex. But mid 70s dewpoints lurk just south of the
metroplex. Isentropic lift of this moisture over the frontal
surface begins this evening and this looks to produce some
scattered showers and thunderstorms - the first of many rounds of
thunderstorms over the next few days. We will have a high amount
of elevated instability with all models showing at least 1500-2000
J/kg of MUCAPE in western north Texas (although the NAM`s 6000
J/kg MUCAPE bullseye seems rather excessive). There is enough
instability that it will be possible to see some isolated elevated
severe storms with large hail being the primary threat overnight
if we get any severe storms to develop.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

 The thunderstorm potential that develops overnight will continue
into the day on Tuesday. By 00Z, a few (albeit a minority) of the
models bring the surface boundary north into our north Texas
counties, and with that, the GFS and HRRR actually have very
little surface based CIN by 00Z/29. We agree with the SPC outlook
at this point with a marginal risk of severe storms in our north
Texas counties on Tuesday, but that could increase if the warm
front (and lack of surface CIN) lifts as far north as our Texas
counties. Meanwhile the easterly flow north of the warm front
giving upslope flow into the High Plains of Colorado and New
Mexico will aid in additional development of storms which will
then likely approach the areas as a thunderstorm complex Tuesday
night. Wednesday and Wednesday night look to have another round of
storms develop over the High Plains on Wednesday and move toward
the area Wednesday night. Later in the week, predictability
becomes more complicated as the weather will be influenced by what
happens prior, but the overall pattern looks similar with zonal
to slight northwesterly flow aloft, and enough easterly/upslope
component of the surface flow onto the High Plains to produce
thunderstorms that then would grow upscale into a storm complex
approaching the area each evening/overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions for this TAF period. Winds will remain light
overnight and gradually shift towards the E and SE Monday. There
is a low chance for storms in parts of southern OK and western
north TX Monday evening. However, chances are currently too low
for mention in TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  64  81  62 /   0  20  40  50
Hobart OK         94  64  84  62 /   0  30  50  70
Wichita Falls TX  94  67  84  65 /   0  30  50  60
Gage OK           91  60  84  58 /  10  20  30  70
Ponca City OK     89  62  82  61 /   0  20  20  30
Durant OK         93  67  83  65 /   0  30  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25