Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 232039
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
339 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Synoptic to Mesoscale Overview: A low-amplitude shortwave trough is
forecast to lift into the Plains Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening
with 70 to 80 knot 500 mb flow. In response, intense cyclogenesis
will occur across eastern Colorado. The attendant ~980 mb surface
low will advance eastward into southwest Kansas in tandem with a
dryline/Pacific front. Details on the specific hazards are given
below.

Strong Winds: The strengthening surface pressure gradient will
result in gusty southerly winds. Confidence is high for sustained
southerly winds at 20 to 35 mph with 40 to 55 mph wind gusts.
Confidence on >58 mph wind gusts is low given the expected cloud
cover (which will limit vertical limit mixing). Therefore, we
issued a Wind Advisory for most of the area not in the High Wind
Watch (exception being far southeast Oklahoma). The High Wind
Watch will remain in place for now (given the uncertainty on peak
wind gusts).

Morning Showers and Thunderstorms: Isentropic ascent/warm air
advection will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms
across north central into central Oklahoma during the morning
hours. Isentropic ascent will also result in widespread stratus
clouds that will persist through the afternoon hours.

Fire Weather: As the dryline advances eastward during the afternoon
hours, critical fire weather conditions are likely west of the
dryline across the western row of counties near the 100th meridian
in western Oklahoma and north Texas between 3 PM to 8 PM. The
most volatile conditions are expected across far northwest into
west central Oklahoma, where rainfall was limited in the last
week. There is uncertainty on how far east the dryline will
advance. The farther east the dryline advances, the farther east
critical fire weather conditions will spread. Given the high
confidence, the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Fire Weather
Warning across western Oklahoma. A couple counties in western
north Texas were also added to a Fire Weather Watch.

Severe Weather: Ahead of the sharpening dryline, low-level theta-E
advection atop steepening lapse rates aloft will result in MLCAPE of
~700 to 1200 J/kg by mid to late afternoon as cloud cover
decreases. Combined with effective bulk shear of ~50 knots, this
will be an environment that is more than sufficient for
supercells.

There is a medium chance (40-60%) that isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the dryline by late
afternoon.The limiting factor for a more robust risk for severe
weather is the lack of low-level moisture (dew points in the low
to mid 50s deg F) and attendant narrow instability corridor ahead
of the dryline (i.e., the thermodynamics). These factors should
temper both the tornado risk and the eastward extent for the
severe weather. As a result, there is a limited spatiotemporal
risk for severe weather immediately east of the dryline,
especially from ~4 PM to 9 PM. The primary hazards will be large
hail an damaging wind gusts. However, if a robust, surface-based
supercell is able to maintain itself into the evening hours as the
low-level jet strengthens to 50 to 60 knots, there will be a
tornado risk given the large, looping hodographs in the low-levels
and continued theta-e advection.

Thunderstorms may consolidate into a few clusters or line
segments with at least a some risk of severe weather in central
and eastern Oklahoma into the evening/overnight hours given the
intense low-level jet. It appears likely that a line of convection
will likely develop southeast of I-44 during the overnight hours
with strengthening isentropic ascent/warm air advection ahead of
the Pacific front/dry line.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

As the aforementioned system departs, a cold front will advance
southward early Monday with a colder air mass in its wake. There
is a low chance of a rain/snow mix across northwest Oklahoma
Monday morning (no impacts). Otherwise, appreciably colder
temperatures are expected across the northwest half of Oklahoma
(some locations may only be in the 40s deg F). The colder and
drier air mass will set the stage for a possible freeze Tuesday
morning across at least the northern half to two-thirds of the
area.

The cool air mass will likely persist through the middle part of
the week with a broad-scale trough across the Plains. There will
also be a low chance of rain by midweek as an embedded shortwave
trough approaches from the west.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Expect increasing south to southeast winds throughout the forecast
period. By 05-08Z, most terminals should be gusting over 20 kt. In
addition, LLWS will impact WWR by 05Z. MVFR cigs are expected over
most terminals after 09Z. There`s at least a 30 percent chance of
light rain/drizzle developing after 12Z across most of OK, which
could lower cigs below IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  64  49  60 /  10  50  50   0
Hobart OK         51  69  43  57 /  20  30  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  56  71  49  66 /  10  30  30   0
Gage OK           49  71  34  47 /  20  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     48  62  47  57 /  20  70  70   0
Durant OK         51  67  54  71 /   0  30  90  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>018-021>024-033>035.

     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ004-009-014-
     021-033-034.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ007-008-
     012-013-019-020-025>032-036>042-044>046-050.

TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for TXZ083-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...03


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