631
FXUS64 KOUN 132042
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
342 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

With winds going light and variable tonight under clearing skies,
could see some radiational fog develop across southeast Oklahoma.
As a result, added patchy fog into the wx grids during the first
half of Tuesday morning across southeast Oklahoma. NAM fairly
aggressive with the fog becoming more dense (visibilities reduced
below 1/4 mile) so may need to amend if necessary. No other
chances were made to the forecast.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid/upper-level low in Kansas will continue to slowly move
eastward toward the Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop on the trailing wind shift across east central
into southeast Oklahoma. A few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also occur across across north central into
central Oklahoma in association with the upper-level low itself.
The convection should exit by early evening.

For Tuesday, mid-level heights will rise as the mid/upper-level
low moves toward the Midwest. Dry and warmer conditions are
expected with abundant sunshine.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

By Wednesday, a quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to be
located somewhere across northern Oklahoma as a shortwave trough
lifts into the Plains. The location of this boundary may depend on
earlier convection in Kansas (i.e., reinforced by outflow). Low-
level moisture pooling and low-level coverage along this boundary
appears sufficient for convective initiation for showers and
thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

On Thursday, a more substantial shortwave through will approach
the Southern Plains. If there is sufficient recovery Thursday
afternoon from the previous night`s convection (and depending on
the location of the effective cold front), strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday. In addition to
severe weather, heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding will be
another potential hazard (especially if heavy rainfall occurs on
Wednesday). The trough will be slow to exit with at least a low
chance of rain continuing into Friday.

By the weekend, a ~595 dam mid-level ridge is progged to develop
across Mexico with the Southern Plains on the northern periphery
of the ridge. Temperatures should gradually rise with mid 80s to
mid 90s deg F likely as the low-level thermal ridge expands to the
north and east. There will also be a continued low chance of
showers and thunderstorms with the area near the periphery of the
stronger mid-level flow.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Although the low cloud deck has lifted to VFR conditions across
our terminals in far western Oklahoma, our terminals in central
Oklahoma (KPNC, KSWO & KOUN) will remain under MVFR conditions at
least through 21Z with KOKC near MVFR. Although currently under
VFR conditions, will keep a TEMPO for MVFR conditions through 21Z
for our southwest terminals (KLAW & KSPS). In southeast Oklahoma,
terminal KDUA should gradually improve to VFR conditions by 22Z
and could see a few isolated thunderstorms during that period as
well. By 21-22Z, most terminals should be improved to VFR
conditions through the remainder of the forecast. However, dense
radiational fog is possible tonight across southeast Oklahoma
which may affect only terminal KDUA by 08Z with a potential of
LIFR conditions through 12Z. A cold front is pushing through
veering winds out of the northwest around 10 kt behind the front.
After 01Z, winds across all terminals expected to go light and
variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  80  59  87 /  10   0   0  20
Hobart OK         53  84  60  89 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  56  84  61  90 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           49  84  57  88 /   0   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     54  79  56  84 /  20   0  10  30
Durant OK         59  82  59  88 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68