Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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601 FXUS64 KOUN 131130 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 630 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A short-wave trough will move slowly eastward across the central and southern plains today. The associated surface front will is expected to track closely with it. Fairly high precipitable water values could lead to localized flooding with rain and storms that are expected along part of the front today. Isolated ones could produce near severe hail or wind. Showers and thunderstorms will move slowly eastward today with the aforementioned features. Drier air will filter south behind the front into Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Weak short-wave ridging will move over Oklahoma until Wednesday when the next upper low approaches from southern California resulting in increased southwesterly flow over Oklahoma. south winds will have brought increased moisture northward. There may be some showers/storms over northern or central Oklahoma Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime. More storms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening when a lead short-wave likely translates over Oklahoma. Several other weak-short wave troughs are likely through Friday when the larger system finally moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights are expected to increase with a ridge over the southern plains during the weekend. This will be associated with afternoon temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An area of showers and thunderstorms persists across central Oklahoma this morning, with skies ranging from LIFR across southeast Oklahoma to VFR across much of western and northern Oklahoma. This complicated ceiling scenario will persist throughout the day as a cold front pushes through, with intermittent reductions to ceiling/visibilities possible until late afternoon when VFR conditions will prevail everywhere. The cold front`s arrival this afternoon will also be a signal for winds to shift to northwesterly and increase to 15 knots. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 56 80 58 / 50 10 0 0 Hobart OK 79 54 83 60 / 40 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 81 57 83 61 / 40 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 49 84 57 / 30 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 76 55 79 55 / 60 20 0 10 Durant OK 80 59 82 58 / 50 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...04