766
FXUS64 KOUN 131732
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A short-wave trough will move slowly eastward across the central and
southern plains today. The associated surface front will is expected
to track closely with it. Fairly high precipitable water values
could lead to localized flooding with rain and storms that are
expected along part of the front today. Isolated ones could produce
near severe hail or wind. Showers and thunderstorms will move slowly
eastward today with the aforementioned features. Drier air will
filter south behind the front into Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Weak short-wave ridging will move over Oklahoma until
Wednesday when the next upper low approaches from southern
California resulting in increased southwesterly flow over Oklahoma.
south winds will have brought increased moisture northward. There
may be some showers/storms over northern or central Oklahoma
Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime. More storms are
expected Wednesday afternoon and evening when a lead short-wave
likely translates over Oklahoma. Several other weak-short wave
troughs are likely through Friday when the larger system finally
moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights are
expected to increase with a ridge over the southern plains during
the weekend. This will be associated with afternoon temperatures
from the mid 80s to lower 90s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Although the low cloud deck has lifted to VFR conditions across
our terminals in far western Oklahoma, our terminals in central
Oklahoma (KPNC, KSWO & KOUN) will remain under MVFR conditions at
least through 21Z with KOKC near MVFR. Although currently under
VFR conditions, will keep a TEMPO for MVFR conditions through 21Z
for our southwest terminals (KLAW & KSPS). In southeast Oklahoma,
terminal KDUA should gradually improve to VFR conditions by 22Z
and could see a few isolated thunderstorms during that period as
well. By 21-22Z, most terminals should be improved to VFR
conditions through the remainder of the forecast. However, dense
radiational fog is possible tonight across southeast Oklahoma
which may affect only terminal KDUA by 08Z with a potential of
LIFR conditions through 12Z. A cold front is pushing through
veering winds out of the northwest around 10 kt behind the front.
After 01Z, winds across all terminals expected to go light and
variable.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  56  80  58 /  50  10   0   0
Hobart OK         79  53  83  60 /  40   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  81  56  83  61 /  40   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  49  84  57 /  30   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     76  54  79  55 /  60  20   0  10
Durant OK         80  59  82  58 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...68