825
FXUS64 KOUN 121745
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Low-level moisture advection increases today as winds shift to the S/SE,
initially across western north Texas and then western Oklahoma as the
closed upper low slowly moves across northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado. We will see dewpoint temperatures rise into the low 60`s across
much of the area today and high temperatures should remain in the low
70`s. However, areas that see more rounds of rain (parts of western
Oklahoma) could stay in the 60`s.

Scattered to numerous showers (along with a few general thunderstorms)
are expected this morning - mainly across the western third of our FA
with rain anticipated to affect central Oklahoma by late morning or
early afternoon as the upper low reaches eastern CO/NM and as isentropic
lift strengthens. Rain rates will increase this afternoon for portions
of northwest Oklahoma and western north Texas and moderate rainfall
will continue across northern Oklahoma tonight as the upper low progresses
across Kansas and northern Oklahoma. With expected QPF remaining below
flash-flood guidance, a flood watch is not needed.

Weak instability could increase into the afternoon, particularly over
western north Texas, and this area would have the greatest severe storm
potential. CAMS still disagree on how much instability will be present
this afternoon and overnight and the RAP is the most robust, with
1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE extending into central Oklahoma tonight.
With that said, some strong to marginally severe storms are possible
beginning this afternoon out west and then into west-central Oklahoma
tonight, as well. Large hail and gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph are
possible with some storms.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The developing surface trough shifts eastward across the plains and
a weak cold front moves through the area by Monday night. There is
a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over southeastern Oklahoma as
early as mid-morning as instability increases ahead of the approaching
front. Large hail is the main concern with this activity.

Warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with winds
shifting to the south as a low-amplitude ridge passes overhead. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return to northern Oklahoma on Wednesday morning
due to low-level WAA ahead of an approaching subtropical shortwave.
Thunderstorm chances increase late Wednesday, especially across western
counties as the shortwave draws closer and as a cold front approaches
the area. Storm chances continue into Thursday and Thursday night with
the approach of a stronger trough. Then, a warming trend is forecast
into next weekend.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move to the
east-northeast this afternoon. Brief reduction in visibility to
MVFR or IFR flight conditions are possible in association with
the heaviest rainfall.

MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely this evening into the overnight
hours as stratus develops across the area. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop during the
evening hours with the highest probability of impact across the
northern half of Oklahoma (KWWR/KSWO/KPNC); however, impacts may
occur as far south as KCSM to KOKC/KOUN.

Winds will gradually shift to the west and northwest late in the
TAF period. As this occurs, ceilings should begin to transition
toward VFR.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  75  57  79 /  80  40  10   0
Hobart OK         59  77  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  80  57  82 /  50  10   0   0
Gage OK           53  73  50  84 /  70  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     59  73  56  78 / 100  70  20  10
Durant OK         63  79  60  82 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10