174
FXUS64 KOUN 061858
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
158 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Currently a front sets draped across Pampa, TX to Buffalo, OK
through southern Kansas to Ponca City, OK. This boundary will
continue to sag south, nudging into northern Oklahoma by 21Z.
Moisture will pool ahead of the front, which combined with daytime
heating will result in a narrow corridor of higher theta-e and
instability along the 100th meridian (as the front surges south
faster in the panhandles) and fanning out in northwest Oklahoma
(first signs of cumulus can be seen near and northeast of Amarillo,
TX). Around peak heating, expect to see isolated to widely scattered
storms develop along this front with the highest chances in western
Oklahoma and westward. With inverted-v soundings, ample instability
(though narrow in extent), and effective bulk shear increasing to
around 40 knots, the primary hazard will be severe outflow winds (up
to 60-70 mph) with a secondary risk for large hail (up to golfball
size).

Additional showers and storms will be possible over northwest
Oklahoma overnight into the early morning as a shortwave passes
over, aided by a low level jet over the panhandles. This convection
would be elevated and is not expected to be severe.

Friday will be warm with gusty winds by afternoon.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

MCS season continues with nocturnal storm chances continuing through
the weekend.

On Friday afternoon, storms are expected to develop across New
Mexico, Colorado, and Nebraska then travel southeast. These storms
will merge into a complex that will have a low chance at affecting
northern and northwestern Oklahoma Friday night before dissipating.
Temperatures will peak Saturday afternoon before the arrival of a
cold front.

Another wave will move through Saturday, allowing another MCS to
have a run at our forecast area with slightly better chances of
making it into northern Oklahoma (30-40%). Cooler temperatures will
start to fill in across northern Oklahoma (southward extent somewhat
uncertain depending on how fast / far south the cold front pushes)
on Sunday. With the front in the area and ample moisture south of
the front, some diurnal convection will be possible during the day
Sunday.

A deeper wave moving through will bring higher rain chances early
next week (especially Sunday night). Cooler temperatures will
continue through early week.

Mid to late week, the ridge tries to build into the area, though it
appears we stay close enough to the edge of upper level flow to not
discount all precipitation chances.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for most sites through the period,
though low chances (20-30%) for lowered category (due to
thunderstorms) exist across western Oklahoma this evening. A weak
front will continue pushing into portions of northern Oklahoma
through this afternoon. After 20-21 UTC, widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along/near this feature. At
this update, PROB30 groups were added at sites (WWR/CSM) where
odds for impact/lowered category are highest. Convective concern
should diminish shortly after sunset (~02-04 UTC), with additional
low chances for a few showers into early Friday morning across
northern Oklahoma.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  90  74  96 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         70  96  75 101 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  96  75  98 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           65  96  72  99 /  30  30  20  10
Ponca City OK     66  90  73  98 /  10  10  20  10
Durant OK         69  91  73  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...34