964
FXUS61 KRLX 050224
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1024 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday
ahead of a cold front on Thursday. Cooler temperatures
anticipated this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1025 PM Tuesday...

A cluster of storms, primarily outflow driven, continues to
press northward up the Ohio River Valley tonight. Extended POPs
a bit further north than previously anticipated to account for
this northern progression. Diminishing inner cloud lightning
suggests that convection should be weakening and should fade off
over the next hour or so. Also filled in sky conditions for the
overnight period.

As of 743 PM Tuesday...

To remain on track with current radar trends, opted to refresh
POPs across our western zones to incorporate a further invasion
of showers and storms across the Ohio River Valley through late
tonight. Latest hi-res CAMs show several rounds of showers and
storms progged for now into Wednesday, which is already depicted
in the inherited forecast.

After a round of convection grazed our eastern Kentucky counties
earlier this afternoon, temperatures remained a few degrees
cooler than anticipated, so adjusted down in these areas through
this evening to remain reflective of local and regional
observations.

As of 1247 PM Tuesday...

Pulse showers and thunderstorms are developing in eastern
Kentucky amid a hot and humid atmosphere with SBCAPE ranging
from 1,000-2,000 J/kg. However, there is very little shear, with
0-6km bulk shear less than 20 kts at all locations. Without
shear, thunderstorms will not be able to organize very well.
Therefore, we still expect a minimal threat for severe weather
today. Isolated instances of flooding remain possible if
multiple downpours cross over the same areas. Activity should
quiet down overnight with some patchy fog possible in the river
valleys.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
with an approaching 500-mb shortwave. Just like today, the
potential for severe weather tomorrow will be minimal due to a
lack of shear. Perhaps the area with the best chance at seeing
an isolated strong to severe storm will be southeast Ohio, where
0-6km bulk shear is expected to approach 30 kts. The main
threats would be damaging winds and small hail. The entire area
is placed under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday with
a very juicy atmosphere. Models expect PWATS to range from
1.5-1.8 inches across the region. Convection will be a little
more widespread Wednesday than today with a 500-mb shortwave
overhead, translating to a slightly higher potential for
isolated flooding. This will be the main thing to watch out for
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

A low-level jet could develop Wednesday evening/night, allowing
for the threat of stronger thunderstorms before all is said and
done. CAPE will be on the downward trend after sunset though,
however a few models show an MLCAPE boundary of 1,000J/Kg that
could keep activity going a bit past sunset. Shear also looks to
increase from 15-20kts to 20-30kts with the arrival of the LLJ.
Still, these values are not conducive to a large-scale severe
threat, so the thinking is maybe a few stronger or isolated
severe storms with damaging winds and small hail. There is a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across our SE Ohio
counties and portions of WV along the Ohio River Wednesday
evening/night.

Heavy downpours will still be a continued concern in the
evening with PWATs in the neighborhood of 1.50-1.75". Isolated
flash flooding instances will be on the table and the area is
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Wednesday
night.

PoPs taper off from west to east Wednesday night, becoming more
confined to the mountains as a large, upper-level low moves down out
of Canada and forces a cold front through. Thursday looks to start
off dry as a result, but chances for diurnal showers or storms
remain as temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s across the
lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains. Some quarrel with this is
that the atmosphere looks to be capped Thursday, with a mid to
upper-level dry layer. That said, kept higher chance PoPs
farther east along the mountains where the elevated heat source
and lift will be more favorable for storm/shower formation.

Conditions look to become fairly dry across the area Thursday night
with lows dropping back in the 50s to around 60 for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

Previously mentioned low pressure system will remain just north of
the area for the long term period, which means somewhat active
weather through the weekend. Severe weather does not look to be on
the table right now, but the chances for the usual diurnal
shower/thunderstorm activity remains each day, even at the
beginning of next week.

Starting Friday, temperatures will be less warm, but still
comfortable with 70s across the lowlands; upper 50s to low 70s
in the mountains. Overnight lows the weekend will be cooler with
the lowlands dropping to the 50s each night and mid 40s to mid
50s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 743 PM Tuesday...

At the time of writing, a line of convection oriented from west
to east was lifting up from Kentucky into the Ohio River Valley.
This may attempt to reach KHTS in the next hour or so, but with
the loss of daytime heating underway, should see this weaken as
it presses northward. Overnight conditions seem fairly quiet in
comparison to past several days in regards to fog development.
Still see potential of low end MVFR fog at KEKN early Wednesday
morning, but other terminals should remain VFR.

Hi-res forecast models indicate a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms passing through the area throughout the day
Wednesday. VCTS was included with this issuance for the majority
of the daytime hours Wednesday, with breezier winds noted for
the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief vsby/cig restrictions at KHTS this
evening with a passing shower/storm. Fog development may spread
to other TAF sites late tonight into Wednesday morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 06/05/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/JMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK