412
FXUS61 KRLX 041706
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
106 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and quieter weather for today, cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm. Showers and storms return Wednesday
ahead of a cold front on Thursday. Not as warm this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1247 PM Tuesday...

Pulse showers and thunderstorms are developing in eastern
Kentucky amid a hot and humid atmosphere with SBCAPE ranging
from 1,000-2,000 J/kg. However, there is very little shear, with
0-6km bulk shear less than 20 kts at all locations. Without
shear, thunderstorms will not be able to organize very well.
Therefore, we still expect a minimal threat for severe weather
today. Isolated instances of flooding remain possible if
multiple downpours cross over the same areas. Activity should
quiet down overnight with some patchy fog possible in the river
valleys.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
with an approaching 500-mb shortwave. Just like today, the
potential for severe weather tomorrow will be minimal due to a
lack of shear. Perhaps the area with the best chance at seeing
an isolated strong to severe storm will be southeast Ohio, where
0-6km bulk shear is expected to approach 30 kts. The main
threats would be damaging winds and small hail. The entire area
is placed under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday with
a very juicy atmosphere. Models expect PWATS to range from
1.5-1.8 inches across the region. Convection will be a little
more widespread Wednesday than today with a 500-mb shortwave
overhead, translating to a slightly higher potential for
isolated flooding. This will be the main thing to watch out for
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning, as a
series of weak southern stream ripples cross, out ahead of a
better-defined mid-upper level short wave trough that crosses
late Wednesday night. This activity may limit heating ahead of
the main short wave, which will drive a surface trough/weak cold
front through the area overnight Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

The best chance for the strongest thunderstorms is ahead of
these nighttime features Wednesday evening. However, even then,
CAPE of just 500-1500 J/kg CAPE and modest shear of 20-30 kts
is not likely to support a severe threat, although strong wind
gusts are possible then. The CAPE does extend well up through
the hail growth layer, with the equilibrium level all the way up
past h20 Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Higher dew points, CAPE and shear just northwest of the forecast
area and closer to a low pressure center moving northeastward
through the eastern Great Lakes support a better chance for at
least marginally severe weather, as depicted in the SPC day one
convective outlook. A more intense low and better low level
south to southwest feed ahead of it could eventually seep the
severe weather threat southeastward into northwest reaches of
the forecast area Wednesday evening. The development of the low
level jet after sunset could also prolong the threat long
enough to carry it into the forecast area then.

PW values climb to the neighborhood of 1.75 inches Wednesday
afternoon, about as high as it gets in this area this time of
year, so heavy downpours are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening, with a local high water threat wherever heavier
thunderstorms hit urban or other low lying, sensitive areas.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases west to east after
sunset Wednesday night, as the mid-upper level short wave and
surface trough/weak cold front cross.

A large mid-upper level low over the west-central portion of
the continent digs in over the Great Lakes Thursday through
Thursday night, a short wave trough pivoting around the south
side of it drives a surface cold front through the area Thursday
afternoon and evening.

While the surface trough/weak cold front brings negligible if
any cooling, it does knock PW values down to around an inch.
Moreover, it takes out instability given the drier column and,
more notably, a stout mid-level cap that develops between the
last southern stream short wave exiting Wednesday night, and the
main mid- upper level system digging in. As such, convection
will be shallow, with minimal to nil threats ahead of the main
front the afternoon of June 6, even amid increased shear.

To be sure, precipitation coverage overall will be isolated to
scattered Thursday afternoon, and the convection will shut off
promptly at sunset, setting up a dry night.

Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures, until
Thursday night, with lows then finally closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

Previously mentioned low pressure system will remain just north of
the area for the long term period, which means somewhat active
weather through the weekend. Severe weather does not look to be on
the table right now, but the chances for the usual diurnal
shower/thunderstorm activity remains each day, even at the
beginning of next week.

Starting Friday, temperatures will be less warm, but still
comfortable with 70s across the lowlands; upper 50s to low 70s
in the mountains. Overnight lows the weekend will be cooler with
the lowlands dropping to the 50s each night and mid 40s to mid
50s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1246 PM Tuesday...

Conditions will be predominately VFR through this evening.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late
this afternoon and into this evening, and any thunderstorm can
briefly reduce visibility to IFR conditions at any terminal.
VCTS has been coded into the TAFs.

Patchy dense fog is expected at KEKN overnight with visibility
reductions down to IFR from 09Z until shortly after sunrise. Fog
is possible at other locations as well, but not confident enough
to include in the other TAFs at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may develop in other locations than
currently expected overnight and into Wednesday morning.






EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JMC