294
FXUS63 KSGF 201733
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in above average temperatures today into
  tomorrow (mid to upper 80s).

- Additional storms will be possible this afternoon/evening
  across portions of central Missouri (15-30% chances). Large
  hail and damaging winds would be possible with the strongest
  storms.

- Slight (2 of 5) risk to Enhanced (3 of 5) risk for severe
  weather Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. Damaging wind
  gusts are the primary concern (15-30% chances) with large hail
  (15% chance) and a few spin-up tornadoes (2-5% chances) being
  a lower-end threat.

- Potential for another round of severe weather Wednesday toward
  south-central Missouri (15% risk/confidence).

- Unsettled weather may persist through the end of this week and
  into Memorial Day weekend (daily 30-50% chances for showers
  and thunderstorms).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Concerning thunderstorms: There are some storms moving into the
area along the MO/KS/OK borders, with some lightning within a
few of the echoes seen on radar. General radar and satellite trends
seem to indicate that moving into a less favorable environment
(less instability, decreasing cold pool strength) is leading to
the dissipation of most of these storms, especially considering
their pulse-y nature.

Echoes in Newton County (area of concern #1) are downtrending
in strength on radar, with noticeable decline in satellite-
observed lightning and updraft strength. A cell along the
Barton/Jasper county line (area of concern #2) with a history
of brief heavy downpours and noteworthy lightning is also
downtrending, with radar-indicated updraft tops becoming lower
and lower as it approaches the radar. Echoes are also popping up
in eastern Vernon County into Cedar and St. Clair counties (area
of concern #3), riding along an isentropic boundary along the
edge of the cold pool from the early morning convection. These
are also expected to dissipate as they move further
east/southeast due to the decreasingly favorable environment.
Further to their northwest in east-central Kansas (area of
concern #4), satellite shows additional cells underneath
overshooting tops popping up every 5 minutes or so, riding
southeast along a subtle axis of rising motion resulting from
the interactions of a morning mesohigh near Kansas City and a
wake low from eastern Kansas. Area of concern #4 is the primary
focus moving through the morning hours, though areas of concern
1-3 will continue to be monitored for changes in overall trend.

Concerning winds: as the daytime heating mixes out the remnant
cold pool from morning convection, pressure gradients will
decrease enough that non-convective wind gusts should remain
below 25mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

An MCS moved north of the region early this morning and another
storm system was moving across eastern Oklahoma and far southern
Kansas this morning. Most areas east of I-49 and south of
Highway 54 only saw isolated showers.

As warm air advection continues through today, temperatures and
moisture will be on the increase. Afternoon highs will climb
into the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the middle
60s. This combination will allow for CAPE values in the
1000-2000 J/kg or greater range providing the fuel for showers
and storms. This will play a part in providing for additional
scattered showers and storms to develop again this afternoon.
This activity is expected to impact portions of central Missouri
as an upper level short wave moves through the southwesterly
upper level flow and a warm front moves north across the region.
Subtle short waves are forecast to move across Missouri
allowing for additional thunderstorm potential development this
afternoon and evening (15 - 30%) across mainly central Missouri
generally north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. A few of these
storms may be strong to severe with hail to quarters in size
and damaging winds.

Rain should taper off and lift north of the Ozarks by late
tonight allowing for a period of dry weather tonight through
early Tuesday afternoon. Continued southerly flow will keep
bringing moisture and warm air into the Ozarks Tuesday with
highs in the middle to upper 80s again making for a warm and
muggy day. Convective activity will be on the increase late
Tuesday afternoon into the evening as a surface low moves across
the plains through the day on its way towards the Great Lakes.
This surface low will push a cold front into the region. A
850MB low will also move along the same path allowing a 40-50kt
low level jet to move over the region as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The warm air and moisture advection ongoing Tuesday will set the
stage for potential severe weather Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Dew points are forecast
to climb to around 70 degrees which will allow for CAPE values
in excess of 2500 J/kg. Shear (0-6 Bulk shear 40-50 kts) will
be ample enough combine with instability and frontal lift to
allow for severe storm development. Initial storms may begin as
supercells eventually lining out to a squall line. The one thing
that may limit severe storm development is the lack of upper
level support. This will be watched but if storms develop and
can take advantage of all the fuel available hail to the size of
golfballs, damaging winds to 60-70mph (the primary concern) and
an isolated tornado or two may be possible.

The front will move into the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but is forecast to still be making its way
trough the Ozarks into Wednesday afternoon before finally
shifting south of the region Wednesday night. Ahead of the
front, continued warm air an moisture advection will produce
another day of temperatures in the 80s. while behind the front,
highs will be in the 70s. As the front continues to make its
way south, additional strong to severe storms will be possible,
as CAPE 3000+ j/kg is forecast along with good shear (45-55 kts)
and upper level jet support.

Storms by this point look as though they will move along and
parallel to the front which may lead to training storms. If
this occurs, flooding will become an issue and WPC has the
region in a Slight risk of flooding.

The pattern from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend
looks to change little with upper level southwesterly flow.
Periods of showers and storms are expected on a daily basis as
short wave energy moves through the pattern. the expectations is
that no day will be a total washout with periods of dry weather,
but showers and storms will likely impact the region. There
will be the potential for strong to severe storms to develop
each day but timing and location will depend on shortwaves which
will be a short term forecast issue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Scattered low cumulus deck prevails over Joplin and continues to
build upstream, and this deck is beginning to push into the
Springfield area and will linger through the afternoon.
Southerly winds on the magnitude of 10ish knots will prevail as
well, veering a bit as remnant mesoscale circulations to the
north wind down before returning to a southerly direction this
evening. Winds will be gusty along KS/OK/AR state lines into the
overnight hours, with gusts near 25kts starting around sunset
and getting stronger overnight, especially near JLN. Low-level
wind shear concerns for a brief period between 09Z-13Z at
SGF/JLN as a low-level jet pushes into the Plains. Showers and
storms will be possible tonight, with little to no impacts to
TAF sites expected as the storms should stay to the N/NE of all
sites.

Winds will get gusty going through the day Tuesday, with gusts
as high as 45kts along the KS/MO border, progressively
decreasing to the east but remaining strong (between 25-35kts at
TAF sites). As the next disturbance moves into the region, some
low-level clouds are expected to develop; flight category
degradation is not expected by 18Z Tuesday, though this may be
fine tuned in future updates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

May 21:
KSGF: 91/1987
KJLN: 91/1987


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 71/1902

May 21:
KSGF: 70/1902

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Camden
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Burchfield