Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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050 FXUS64 KSJT 221847 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 147 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ....Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening... Early this afternoon, a cold front was making its way southward and had become nearly stationary just north of the Concho Valley. Thunderstorms have started to develop along this frontal boundary and are expected to continue developing through the rest of the afternoon. The warm sector airmass is packing quite a punch, with 4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE. Additional thunderstorms should also develop along the dryline south of the front, which is mixing eastward through early evening. Storms should push southeastward this evening and move into the Hill Country late this evening after sunset. Overnight, some lingering showers and or thunderstorms are possible, but an otherwise mild night is expected. By sunrise Thursday, the frontal boundary will begin to lift northward again. More thunderstorms are also possible as moisture makes a return and the warm front provides decent lift, along with some upper-level support from a passing wave. However, most of these storms are not expected to be severe as the area should see less instability. As the day continues, another upper level wave should move across north Texas. While most of tomorrow`s storms should be across north central Texas, some storms could still occur across the eastern Big Country down to Brownwood. Otherwise, high temperatures tomorrow could easily reach the mid 90s for most locations, with the exception of areas that could see storms. The caveat to the temperatures is that this evening`s storms may leave behind a strong cold pool, which may hold temperatures down to the upper 80s and low 90s. For now, it appears more likely that highs will be toward the warmer end of guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...Potential Heat Impacts for the Holiday Weekend... A weak cold front is expected to move south into our area on Friday. It won`t have a big impact on temperatures, especially in the southern half of our area, where west winds will bring in hot downsloping air for much of the day. The front will help keep temperatures in the Big Country and Heartland in the low to mid 90s, while the rest of the area pushes into the upper 90s and lower 100s. Return flow will be quick to return, with winds back from the south by Saturday morning. On Saturday, the dry line is expected to move east through much of our area, bringing strong southwest/west winds. This will help increase temperatures in the southwestern half of our forecast area into the 100 to 105 degree range. Areas to the east of the dry line could experience heat impacts as well, due to the high moisture leading to heat indices above 100. Temperatures on Sunday will be very hot as well, but the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature forecast is pointing to a lower risk for heat related illnesses on Sunday compared to Saturday for those outside this weekend. The GFS is showing a cold front early Monday and the European has it moving through late Tuesday, leading to uncertainty in both the temperatures and precipitation chances to start out next week. As for rain chances in the long term, there are a few days where certain areas could have a slight chance of rainfall. A little upper level disturbance could move through the flow aloft both Friday and Saturday afternoon/evening. Right now, rain chances are better to our east, leaving us dry, but it will depend on the location of the dry line and the disturbance. If the dry line stays a little further west then we could see some rain in our eastern counties (and potentially some strong to severe storms). The best rain chances in the long term will be Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper level disturbance moves through. The timing of the front will help to determine exactly how widespread the rain will be. If the lift from the front and the lift from the disturbance can combine they could produce higher storm coverage. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Storms expected to develop along southward-moving cold front this afternoon and evening could produce sudden wind shifts and large hail. MVFR to IFR ceilings late tonight and tomorrow morning will be very ragged with several breaks likely. Additional showers and or storms are possible tomorrow morning, but these were left out of the 12 to 18Z time period due to low confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 90 69 92 / 20 20 0 0 San Angelo 70 98 67 100 / 20 10 0 0 Junction 72 98 72 101 / 30 20 0 10 Brownwood 69 88 69 93 / 40 30 0 0 Sweetwater 68 95 67 92 / 10 10 0 0 Ozona 70 98 67 99 / 20 10 0 0 Brady 70 90 71 95 / 40 30 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...SK