497
FXUS64 KSJT 190540
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1240 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the area through
Sunday as the area remains under short wave ridging aloft. Skies
will be mainly clear through tomorrow, with overnight lows in the
upper 60s tonight, with highs tomorrow afternoon similar to today,
ranging from the low to mid 90s east, to the upper 90s to near
100 west. Expect light winds tonight, with south winds gusting 20
to 25 mph tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

An awfully summer-like pattern is shaping up for the long-term
duration of the forecast. With upper level ridging staying in
place through Monday, the trend of hot temperatures and little
cloud cover will continue with highs in the upper 90s to around
103. The next upper level trough begins to move north and east out
of the Baja California region Monday night, putting our area in
increasing southwest flow aloft. We`ll see an increase in high
clouds Tuesday but with the 850 mb thermal ridge expanding into
our area with temperatures in the 27-30 deg C range across our
western counties, temperatures will likely be even warmer in the
mid 90s to around 105. The dryline is expected to bisect our area
on Tuesday afternoon so there is a slight chance we could see some
storms develop in the more unstable air of the Heartland and
Western Concho Valley, ahead of the dryline. A weak frontal
boundary is expected to make its way south into the region during
the day on Wednesday. The front is expected to stall out somewhere
in our vicinity and create chances for showers and storms
starting late Wednesday and continuing through Thursday. Current
indications show this front weakening and lifting north through
the day on Thursday. Areas in the Big Country and Heartland will
likely see the greatest reprieve in temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday with highs in the mid 80s and everywhere else remaining
in the 90s. By Friday, the effects of the front will largely have
worn off with temperatures right back into the mid 90s to around
100 degrees. Weak zonal to southwest flow aloft will continue into
the weekend but with the dryline staying situated across our
area, any chances for showers and storms look to stay off to our
east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR through the next 24 hours. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots
tonight will increase to 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts out of
the south by mid to late morning Sunday. Winds will decrease back
to around 10 knots shortly after 00Z Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 101  70 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   100  69  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   91  68  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  99  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       98  69  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       94  68  94  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...20