Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
472 FXUS64 KSJT 191112 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 612 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 No significant changes from the previous forecast for today and tonight. We`re still expecting to be dry, breezy, and very hot, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs should again range from the mid 90s to around 103 degrees. Winds will pick up out of the south to 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts by mid to late morning. The warm weather will continue through tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 432 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate hot and dry weather will result from a high pressure ridge that sits over our area through Tuesday. Then, a frontal boundary will affect the area on Wednesday afternoon, which will limit high temperatures across the Big Country to the middle 80s. This frontal boundary will combine with a dryline off to the west to support thunderstorm development during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Additional activity is possible across the region on Thursday along the dryline as a minor disturbance aloft also moves through. All of this activity will have to be monitored closely for severe weather potential. Conditions appear to be favorable for possible severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday. With regards to Tuesday, a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. However, it remains to be seen if any thunderstorm development can be initiated. If it does initiate, then these thunderstorms will certainly carry the risk of severe weather. However, chances remain low (less than 20%) for thunderstorm development. These details will become more clear over the next few days as to exactly what kind of threats may emerge. Please check back over the next day or two for updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR with gusty south winds today. Winds will diminish after 00Z tonight, with VFR conditions through most of the overnight hours. Could see some MVFR ceilings sneak into KJCT late in the TAF forecast but will hold off on introducing anything just yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 103 70 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 101 69 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 92 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 100 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 99 69 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 94 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...20