584
FXUS62 KTBW 042347
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
747 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Current forecast on track requiring no changes. Some interior
convection toward SWFL continues to fire with an overall slow
trend toward coastal areas, while Nature Coast convection
currently remains limited to Levy/Citrus counties. The sea breeze
is evident via radar and satellite situated generally along or
near the I-75 corridor and has yet to fire any appreciable
convection across WCFL, however the E coast sea breeze may trigger
some activity over the next few hours as it arrives and intersects
it, therefore expect the chance of a shower or storm to linger
through at least sunset before eventually winding down for the
evening across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Upper level ridging extends across Florida and the Southeast this
afternoon. With the surface high pressure centered to the northeast,
that is creating primarily light easterly winds at the surface.
Moisture remains higher with 1.72 inch for PWs on this morning`s
sounding. The transition into the rainy season pattern continues
with the trend of higher moisture and increasing afternoon
convection. Some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected across interior and SWFL later this afternoon with similar
rain chances again on Wednesday.

As we move into the latter part of the week, a trough moving into
the eastern half of the country will act to push the ridge axis to
our south. This will shift our wind direction to a more westerly
pattern. This switch in flow will adjust our rain chances and timing
through the end of the week and into the weekend. While the majority
of the rain activity has been across the west coast of FL the past
several days, the westerly flow will support rain/storm chances
across the central and eastern portions of the state. Overall,
precipitation amounts will remain low through the forecast period.

The main story at least through the end of the week and weekend will
be the heat. The high pressure will remain solidly in place allowing
temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 90s. Moisture remains
high, meaning overnight lows will not cool down substantially, with
most areas only falling into the lower to mid 70s. So be sure and
take the proper precautions to keep cool if you`re out in the heat
and sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Generally VFR expected through Wednesday morning across terminals
although a few showers or a storm may briefly bring impacts this
evening if they can manage to form, otherwise the next round of
convection not expected until Wednesday, when northern terminals
may see afternoon impacts as the west coast sea breeze migrates
inland and southern terminals may see evening impacts after the
east coast sea breeze makes its way across the state and arrives
in SWFL. Winds generally 5-10 knots through the cycle, higher
in/near storms, easterly overnight into morning before turning
onshore during the afternoon with the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

High pressure remains northeast of the region leading to light
easterly flow and an on shore transition each afternoon for the next
couple days. Sea breeze rain and storms will develop over land
during the afternoon hours, then shift over the water during the
evening time frame. A slight pattern shift later this week will lead
to westerly flow and rain/storm activity impacting the waters
earlier in the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern leading to
light easterly winds for today and tomorrow. The high pressure will
shift south later this week turning our winds out of the west into
this weekend. Moisture is not a concern, with RH values remaining
well above critical thresholds through the period. Daily scattered
afternoon and early evening rain and thunderstorms chances are
expected with the sea breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  94  78  93 /  40  40  30  40
FMY  76  95  76  94 /  60  50  50  60
GIF  73  96  75  97 /  30  60  20  60
SRQ  76  94  77  93 /  40  40  40  40
BKV  69  96  70  94 /  30  40  20  40
SPG  80  93  81  92 /  40  40  30  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming