256
FXUS64 KTSA 042327
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A mid/upper-level trough and an associated weak surface cold
front will move across Western/Central OK later this afternoon and
will move into Northeast OK this evening/overnight tonight. The
air mass ahead of the approaching cold front is expected to
rapidly destabilize late afternoon into this evening as surface
low pressure deepens across Western-North TX and advects strong
warm air/deep-layered moisture into the region. Model consensus
show dewpoints rising into the low-mid 70s area-wide by late
afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop in the
warm sector mid-late afternoon as WAA increases. By early evening,
several forecast models show MUCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg
across much of Eastern OK and 3000+ J/kg across Northwest AR with
mid-level lapse rates 8+ C/km. Confidence has increased that main
storm initiation will occur in Central/West-Central OK where best
moisture will exist along/near the frontal boundary sometime
early-mid evening. Storms are expected to quickly grow upscale and
cluster into an MCS, propagating into Eastern OK by mid-late this
evening, likely after 7 PM. The main severe hazard will be
damaging wind gusts, with wind gusts 60-80 mph possible. The SPC
has contoured an area of a significant wind (65+ knots) threat for
much of Eastern OK. However, in addition, a large hail threat and
a tornado threat will also exist, as 0-1 km SRH rapidly increases
between 200-300 m2s2 after 00z/7 PM. Once the MCS gets
established, will certainly need to monitor for QLCS tornadoes.
Showers and thunderstorms should also develop north/northeast of
the MCS, along the frontal boundary, affecting far Northeast OK
and Northwest AR. These storms will also have a severe threat,
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

On top of the severe threat, there will also be a flash flood
threat, especially for locations along and south of the I-40
corridor where generally about 2-4 inches have recently fallen
over the past couple of days. For this event, another 1-3 inches
is forecast to fall with locally higher amounts possible. The WPC
has much of Eastern/Southeastern OK and West-Central AR in a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance, with a Slight Risk for portions of far Northeast OK and
far Northwest AR. With that said, have kept this mornings Flood
Watch intact and in effect. The Watch remains in effect until 7 AM
Wednesday and now includes Choctaw County in OK and Crawford,
Franklin, and Sebastian Counties in AR.

Storms should be in the process of clearing the forecast area
northwest-to-southeast by the end of the short-term forecast, with
possibly light-moderate rain lingering mid-morning Wednesday.
Slightly drier air will filter in both behind the exiting MCS and
the trailing cold front early Wednesday morning making it feel
relatively comfortable. The weak front will continue to slowly
sag southward into Southeast OK through the day Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Aside from the early-mid morning hours, the rest of Wednesday
looks dry with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon for all of the
forecast area. Tranquil conditions will persist through the day
Thursday and into Friday as upper-level ridging builds over the
Desert Southwest and northwest flow aloft dominates over the
region. Daytime temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
on Thursday ahead of another cold front that is expected to push
through the forecast area late Thursday afternoon/evening. At this
time, storm/precipitation chances look very slim along the cold
front due to a subsident, dry and stable atmosphere in place.
Moisture and instability will increase late afternoon/evening
Friday and will set up ripe conditions for another MCS pattern
this weekend. Medium-range model guidance data indicate weak mid-
level perturbations ejecting off the Rockies and getting caught in
the northwest flow aloft, which would direct storm complexes into
Eastern OK and Northwest AR both Friday night and again Saturday
night. Details and the forecast for this weekend will continue to
be modified over the next few days. Another cold front is forecast
to arrive late Saturday night or early Sunday morning and will
usher in cooler and drier weather for the first half of next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Primary concern this forecast will be potential for a strong to
severe complex of storms moving across eastern OK and western AR,
with the 03z-09z time frame remaining favored. Storms will likely
be accompanied by a period of MVFR to IFR conditions for an hour
or two, along with potential for strong winds, possibly in the
40-50 knot range in parts of southeast OK. Once storms clear, and
following possible period of low ceilings into early Wednesday
morning, VFR conditions will prevail for remainder of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  88  66  90 /  90   0   0   0
FSM   70  89  64  92 /  90  20   0   0
MLC   68  88  63  92 /  80  10   0   0
BVO   63  87  62  88 /  90   0   0   0
FYV   65  85  62  88 /  90  10   0   0
BYV   66  83  60  87 /  90  20   0   0
MKO   68  86  63  88 /  90  10   0   0
MIO   65  84  62  85 /  90   0   0  10
F10   67  86  63  89 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   70  86  63  91 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     070>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14