498
FXUS64 KTSA 200121
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
821 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 821 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Severe thunderstorms currently across northwest Oklahoma
are expected to congeal over the next hour or so as they
move into north-central Oklahoma. This activity will likely continue
to be severe as it moves into Osage and Pawnee counties before
weakening as it moves into a less favorable environment in place
across the remainder of the area. Wind gusts to around 70 mph
will be the main concern as storms move into the region late
this evening. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight
to reflect the latest trends in observations and short-term
guidance. Otherwise, current forecast for tonight is on track.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The dryline likely stays capped on Monday, so the main focus for
storms will be the front across KS, and this activity should
remain north of the state line thru Monday night.

Focus then turns to Tuesday and Wednesday, the days which appear
to have the greatest severe potential this week. The system off
the coast of SoCal/Baja will be ejecting into the central Plains
Tuesday afternoon and evening, optimally timed with max diurnal
heating. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching from the
north and a dryline will be mixing farther east closer to the
I-35 corridor. Mid level temps will be warm, but the glancing
influence from the upper wave should weaken the cap enough to
allow for at least isolated storm development north of I-40
Tuesday afternoon. With H5 flow expected to be greater than 50kts,
deep layer shear should be plenty strong for supercells. The
initiation zone will be closer to our area, so any cells that
develop will be maturing as they move across E OK and possibly
into NW AR and will be capable of producing higher-end severe
weather. Low level shear will increase by evening, increasing the
tornado threat with any ongoing discrete cells. Storms will also
begin to develop along the front across NE OK during the evening,
though these storms will be more multicell and linear, and not as
high of a severe threat as they spread southeast Tuesday night.
The slowly sagging front will be the focus for more storms on
Wednesday as the airmass destabilizes with daytime heating, mainly
to the south and east of I-44. A severe wind/hail threat will
continue with these storms as they track southeast.

The front never really clears our area, meanders over the region
and interacts with the next wave to produce another round of
storms Wednesday night into Thursday. It is during this time when
severe threat maybe wanes a bit and locally heavy rainfall and
flooding threat increases. We may get a break in the action for
much of Friday before storm chances increase toward next Sunday
with the next system moving across the central Plains.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Decaying thunderstorm complex is forecast to move into portions
of northeast Oklahoma in the 05-06Z time frame. Strong/gusty winds
will be likely with any of the stronger storms. This activity
could move into northwest Arkansas late tonight but overall
coverage will likely be greatly diminished and was handled with
PROB30 groups for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
southerly winds increasing during the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  90  74  88 /  60  10   0  20
FSM   69  91  70  90 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   70  90  72  86 /  20   0   0  10
BVO   65  89  70  89 /  70  10   0  20
FYV   66  88  69  89 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   66  88  69  89 /  20  20   0  10
MKO   67  89  72  88 /  30  10   0  10
MIO   66  88  71  88 /  60  20   0  20
F10   68  89  72  87 /  40  10   0  20
HHW   67  88  70  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12