Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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416 FXUS64 KTSA 241741 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1241 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1028 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Isolated to scattered storms continue across portions of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. This activity is expected to exit the region over the next couple of hours. The stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail, gusty winds and heavy rain. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon as a cold front that currently extends from a Newkirk- Stillwater-Spencer line in Oklahoma spreads to the southeast in an increasingly unstable airmass. Development is most likely across Southeast Oklahoma as we move into the late afternoon hours. The vertical wind profile will be supportive of splitting cells and very large hail especially with the left moving storms. Damaging winds can also be expected with a limited threat of tornadoes. Have adjusted the forecast for today to better reflect current trends in observations and latest short-term model guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Any ongoing storms will shift south and east of the area through the evening hours as the front slowly sags southeastward and eventually stalls/washes out near the Red River. Attention will then turn to Saturday for the next chance at seeing impactful severe weather across the region. A neutrally to negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject out of the Central Rockies and across the Central Plains by Saturday evening. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop over southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas and track east northeastward through the evening hours with a dryline extending southward through western/central Oklahoma. Increasing southerly winds ahead of the deepening surface low will allow for rapid moisture return across much of eastern Oklahoma during the day Saturday and set up a very unstable airmass ahead of the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. An expanding, modestly warm Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) should suppress convective initiation along the dryline for much of the day. However, as the mid level wave arrives and height falls overspread the tightening dryline, at least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across central Oklahoma, with discrete supercells the likely storm mode. These storms would spread into eastern Oklahoma by mid evening, with all hazards possible, particularly very large hail and tornadoes. IT is likely not everyone will see a storm and there might only be a few storms across the region, but whatever storms do form will most certainly be severe. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, especially with this being a holiday weekend and lots of activities going on. Some showers ad storms could linger into early Sunday morning across western Arkansas, but should move out fairly quickly. The pattern will calm some for the late weekend and early next week, as mid level ridging builds into the area. Mainly hot and dry weather is expected for the remainder of the long holiday weekend, with temperatures in the 80s to near 90. Good agreement remains in the long range on the mid level ridge expanding into the Intermountain West by mid week and northwest flow aloft developing over the Plains. Thunderstorm chances will return with this pattern in the form of nocturnal MCS`s moving off the High Plains and parts of eastern Oklahoma. Timing and placement of where each MCS will set up is hard to predict at this range and will be dependent on previous days activity in a lot of cases. But, look for nightly rain chances to return to the forecast from mid week on next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 MVFR to VFR conditions prevail across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this afternoon. This trend will continue with scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon in advance of a cold front moving through the area. The thunderstorm activity will persist into the evening hours. Have included a TEMPO for thunder at the western AR sites and KMLC to highlight the potential late this afternoon and evening. Low clouds and fog could also create IFR conditions at the northwest Arkansas late tonight into Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 60 88 72 / 20 0 0 40 FSM 86 68 90 73 / 60 50 0 20 MLC 87 65 88 72 / 60 30 0 20 BVO 82 53 87 69 / 10 0 0 40 FYV 83 60 86 69 / 50 50 0 30 BYV 84 60 86 70 / 60 50 0 30 MKO 84 62 86 72 / 40 30 0 30 MIO 81 57 85 69 / 40 10 0 50 F10 84 61 87 72 / 30 20 0 40 HHW 87 67 87 72 / 60 40 0 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...10