591
FXUS64 KTSA 191715
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Another warm and humid day is in store across the region with
highs topping out near 90 degrees for most locations this
afternoon under mostly sunny skies. A developing surface low
currently deepening over the High Plains will act to tighten the
pressure gradient and allow southerly winds to increase and become
gusty over eastern Oklahoma by this afternoon. Otherwise a quiet
day will be had before more unsettled weather arrives beginning
tonight into the next week.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A return to active spring weather returns tonight with dry line
established across far western OK/KS. Shortwave over the Great
Basin this morning will move east during the day, with storms
developing along the dry line by late this afternoon and
organizing into a potentially significant complex moving primarily
across western and central KS. In general the 00z models are
showing a bit more coverage into northeast OK late this evening
as storms move into an increasingly less favorable environment
for severe weather with eastward extent through tonight.

Generally quiet day Monday as mid level height rises return ahead
of a stronger system, with very warm and humid conditions
persisting. This system will move into the plains Tuesday with the
dry line mixing quite a bit farther east to near I-35. While
fairly strong cap is likely to be in place, most guidance suggests
at least some development southward into OK late in the period,
with all hazards possible given the strong deep layer wind fields.
Synoptic cold front will eventually push south into the area
Wednesday with potentially more widespread coverage of showers and
storms across western AR and southeast OK, with an attendant
heavy rainfall threat into Thursday as the boundary remains in the
general area.

With this frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity into next
weekend with essentially zonal flow expected, the active weather
will continue with at least some threat of severe weather and
heavy rainfall through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon and
into the evening, with gusty southerly winds coming up across
eastern Oklahoma sites this afternoon. A complex of storms will
likely enter NE OK late this evening and impact TAF sites
overnight tonight with heavy rain and some strong winds possible
creating MVFR and scattered IFR vsby conditions in the strongest
storms. Storms should weaken as they move into NW AR sites with
still some thunder possible for those sites through the early
morning tomorrow. Gusty southerly winds will once again increase
tomorrow morning across the area.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  90  72  89 /  40   0   0  20
FSM   69  92  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   69  90  72  87 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   65  89  69  89 /  60   0   0  20
FYV   66  89  69  89 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   66  88  70  89 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   67  89  72  86 /  40   0   0  20
MIO   66  88  71  86 /  40  10   0  20
F10   67  89  73  87 /  30   0   0  10
HHW   68  88  70  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04