546
FXUS64 KTSA 240524
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 924 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Made a few adjustments to PoPs overnight, mainly
to reflect lower coverage through 12z. Severe storm currently across
SW OK may try to move east, and additional development along any
outflow may impact SE OK after 06z Will keep low chance PoPs across
far SE OK in that time period. Rest of the area should remain dry
overnight, but will keep slight chance in late tonight across far
NE OK with development along an approaching cold front.
Current overnight temps look reasonable at this time, so will
leave those and remaining first period elements as they are.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

With a warm and humid airmass in place, plentiful moisture and
instability will be present Friday morning. Meanwhile, a weak
surface cold front will move through a sheared environment,
increasing forced ascent. CAM guidance has mostly shown weak
storms developing along the front during the morning, with more
substantial activity in the afternoon or evening when the front is
into southeast OK/west- central AR. With that said, considerable
uncertainty remains with respect to how quickly the cold front
advances, and it is possible that storms could form over a greater
portion of the area if the front is a bit slower. Either way, any
storms that do develop, but especially during the afternoon or
evening, would have the potential of becoming severe. Once again,
hail and wind would be the most likely storm threats.

The bigger threat, however, will come Saturday as many severe
weather ingredients will come together at the right time and in the
right way. Extreme instability with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/Kg,
very strong speed and directional wind shear, good upper level
divergence, and a surface forcing mechanism (cold front) will all be
present. Storms will form along the front as it moves in later
Saturday. In such an environment, these storms will most likely
become severe, some significantly severe. With low LCLs and good
SRH, tornado development will be possible, especially as the LLJ
increases towards sunset. This will be true with the initial
discrete cells, but also from a QLCS perspective as storms become
linear later on. The high CAPE and dry midlevels will also support
large to very large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, CAMs
suggest that areas of heavy rainfall will occur, so flash flooding
will also be a threat. Saturday will be a day to be especially weather
aware! In terms of timing, late afternoon or evening appears to
be the main window across Oklahoma, with evening or early
overnight hours for Arkansas.

A few storms could linger into Sunday, but overall it will be a
welcome break from the action. Sunday and Monday will both be warm
and mostly dry with highs in the 80s to near 90F in some spots. A
large area of high pressure will build west of the region into next
week, inducing northwest flow. Ensemble guidance is in relatively
good agreement that daily nocturnal rain chances will develop as
MCSs dive into the area. Confidence is relatively high in this
general idea but the details of these MCSs are notoriously hard
to predict. The frequent storm activity will keep high
temperatures from warming too much, mostly in the mid 80s, with
lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Strong thunderstorm clusters across far southeast Oklahoma may
pass just south of KMLC/KFSM overnight. A period of brief MVFR
ceilings are forecast to spread north into portions of eastern
Oklahoma Friday morning. A few scattered thunderstorms are likely
as cold front pushes into northeast Oklahoma by late morning/early
afternoon with additional stronger development across portions of
SE OK/NW AR Friday afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  88  70  89 /  10  20  50   0
FSM   70  90  72  92 /  30  10  40  10
MLC   67  88  73  91 /  20  20  40   0
BVO   55  87  66  88 /  10  20  60   0
FYV   61  86  68  87 /  30  10  50  10
BYV   62  86  68  87 /  30  10  60  20
MKO   64  87  70  88 /  20  20  50   0
MIO   59  86  68  86 /  10  20  60  10
F10   63  87  70  89 /  20  20  50   0
HHW   68  87  72  92 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...12