Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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831 FXUS64 KTSA 241129 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 629 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A small complex of strong to marginally severe storms will continue to shove southeastward along the Red River early this morning, before exiting the area before sunrise. Elsewhere, a cold front is currently making its way through Kansas down into northwestern Oklahoma. This boundary will serve as the main focus for thunderstorm potential across our area from this morning through the afternoon hours. A few scattered showers or storms will be possible this morning, mainly across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas in vicinity of the surface boundary as a low level jet pumps relatively deep tropical moisture into the region. Storms will likely be elevated in nature with a capping inversion in place, but steep mid level lapse rates will allow for modest elevated instability ahead of the boundary. Any storms that do form in this environment could become strong to severe, with large hail the main concern through late morning. A lull in activity is expected as the low level jet dies down through the morning and any storms around begin to weaken and dissipate. Chances for scattered storms then increase again by mid to late afternoon along the cold front as it slides into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A very moist and unstable airmass characterized by MLCAPE of 4000+ J/kg and strong deep layer shear of 60kts ahead of the boundary would support supercells capable of all hazards, especially large to significant hail with the strongest, more isolated cells. Shear vectors largely perpendicular to the frontal boundary should help keep cells more discrete for a longer period of time and allow storms to stay in front of the cold front, increasing the severe threat into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the evening hours. Uncertainties still remain however... if morning convection is more numerous than forecast that could limit the potential for more storms later in the day or at least shift the focus further south into Texas and southern Arkansas, so stay weather aware today as the forecast updates. Highs will mostly be in the 80s today with lower 80s to the north and upper 80s across the south. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Any ongoing storms will shift south and east of the area through the evening hours as the front slowly sags southeastward and eventually stalls/washes out near the Red River. Attention will then turn to Saturday for the next chance at seeing impactful severe weather across the region. A neutrally to negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject out of the Central Rockies and across the Central Plains by Saturday evening. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop over southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas and track east northeastward through the evening hours with a dryline extending southward through western/central Oklahoma. Increasing southerly winds ahead of the deepening surface low will allow for rapid moisture return across much of eastern Oklahoma during the day Saturday and set up a very unstable airmass ahead of the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. An expanding, modestly warm Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) should suppress convective initiation along the dryline for much of the day. However, as the mid level wave arrives and height falls overspread the tightening dryline, at least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across central Oklahoma, with discrete supercells the likely storm mode. These storms would spread into eastern Oklahoma by mid evening, with all hazards possible, particularly very large hail and tornadoes. IT is likely not everyone will see a storm and there might only be a few storms across the region, but whatever storms do form will most certainly be severe. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, especially with this being a holiday weekend and lots of activities going on. Some showers ad storms could linger into early Sunday morning across western Arkansas, but should move out fairly quickly. The pattern will calm some for the late weekend and early next week, as mid level ridging builds into the area. Mainly hot and dry weather is expected for the remainder of the long holiday weekend, with temperatures in the 80s to near 90. Good agreement remains in the long range on the mid level ridge expanding into the Intermountain West by mid week and northwest flow aloft developing over the Plains. Thunderstorm chances will return with this pattern in the form of nocturnal MCS`s moving off the High Plains and parts of eastern Oklahoma. Timing and placement of where each MCS will set up is hard to predict at this range and will be dependent on previous days activity in a lot of cases. But, look for nightly rain chances to return to the forecast from mid week on next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible across northeast Oklahoma this morning as undular bore approaches from the northwest, ahead of main frontal boundary, with a brief period of lower MVFR ceilings. Additional and potentially stronger storms are expected this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as frontal boundary slowly moves through the area. Brief IFR conditions will be likely in the stronger storms before activity shifts east this evening. Also some potential for a few lower clouds to develop behind front across portions of the area tonight with some light fog at NW AR TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 59 88 73 / 30 0 10 40 FSM 86 68 89 74 / 20 40 10 30 MLC 87 66 88 74 / 20 20 0 20 BVO 82 53 87 69 / 30 0 10 50 FYV 83 61 87 70 / 40 30 10 50 BYV 84 61 86 69 / 30 30 10 50 MKO 84 61 87 73 / 30 20 10 30 MIO 81 56 86 69 / 40 0 10 60 F10 84 60 87 73 / 20 10 10 30 HHW 87 67 86 72 / 20 30 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...12