142
FXUS64 KAMA 041732
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The upper level pattern has begun its transition from zonal flow
with perturbations each day into jet stream ridge development
over the area. Tuesday is still subject to some lower level
activity, with a surface boundary moving across the CWA followed
by the corresponding surface low. By Wednesday a small break from
our active patten should finally commence.

Through this morning... Fog and low level clouds have advected
from the southeast. Similar to yesterday night`s conditions, the
fog is generally patchy with only some isolated areas seeing dense
fog. The should not have any major impacts on travel early this
morning, and by sunrise conditions should begin to improve.

By the late morning, a shortwave trough will enter the region
from the northwest with a surface low following suit. Short range
model guidance suggest this will have a small impact on high
temperatures today. Guidance has converged on 850 mb temperatures
ranging between 26-28 degrees Celsius during peak diurnal heating
hours. Therefore, highs around the combined Panhandles today
should range between the upper 80`s (in the north) and mid 90`s
(in the south). With the Palo Duro Canyon and parts surrounding
approaching 100 degrees. A feint chance for thunderstorms exist
once again in the southern Texas Panhandle today. Moisture should
be more limited this afternoon compared to previous days and is
mostly restricted to the lower levels again. The timing of the
front does not line up with the convective initiation timeframe, so
forcing is absent in the afternoon hours. Still, pulse type
convection cannot be ruled out later today but the odds of a storm
sustaining and becoming severe are quite low. PoPs will remain
below mentionable criteria (<15%), but a few areas in our southern
zones are forecast for isolated convection where the coverage is
10% at best.

Tomorrow, thunderstorm chances should expire completely and
temperatures will range between similar values from the expected
highs today. Models still agree upon 850 mb temperatures ranging
in the mid to upper 20`s (in Celsius). Surface winds should
principally be breezy from the south and southeast.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

For Thursday through Monday, upper level ridging prevails over
the region as well as the western states while corresponding
upper level troffing evolves across the eastern states. This
places our forecast area in some semblance of northwest flow
aloft, which is generally a favorable pattern for steering storms
eastward and southeastward from the higher terrain of southeast
Colorado and eastern New Mexico. While medium range models are in
basic agreement on the overall pattern, they, along with ensemble
members, differ on location of the ridge axis relative to the
southern high plains as well as how long the pattern lasts before
potentially changing again. Given the general predicted pattern,
the threat for showers and thunderstorms will return to the OK and
TX Panhandles late Thursday afternoon through Monday. Specific
details regarding highest versus lowest pops, precipitation
amounts, potential for severe storms on one or more days as well
as locations will be refined as time gets closer to each day in
the extended periods. That said, NBM temperatures and pops seem
plausible based on the overall progged synoptic pattern and were
included in all periods of the long term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions are favored at all sites for the 18z TAF period.
Some scattered mid to low clouds may move in behind the cold front
this afternoon, but any thicker ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds. This front could also produce a stray storm or two
near KGUY or KAMA this afternoon after 21z, but this only has a
10-15% chance of occurring. Otherwise expect winds to become
mostly light and variable overnight.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  94  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  61  97  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              58  94  62  91 /  10   0   0  20
Borger TX                  65  98  69 100 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              64  98  66  99 /   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  64  93  64  96 /  10   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               64  92  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 59  95  62  94 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  60  96  64  93 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                64  96  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                63  96  67  95 /  10   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   64  94  67  96 /  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                65  93  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Wellington TX              66  94  67  98 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...38