198
FXUS61 KBGM 130706
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
306 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms develop along and ahead of a cold
front that will gradually move through the area late today into
Monday. Some storms can be slow moving and produce heavy rain.
High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday with hot and dry
conditions. The chance for showers and storms returns for the
second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
255 AM Update...

We`re starting off early this morning with some low clouds
associated with a marine layer across the Poconos and into the
Catskills that will gradually retreat. Farther west where skies
are clear, some pockets of fog will also be around to start the
day. Otherwise, it will be very warm and steamy once again with
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to contend
with for the afternoon and evening. High temperatures across
much of the area are expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90
degrees, although there is a little uncertainty with regards to
cloud cover and convection if some of the highs today,
especially around the Finger Lakes region come up a little
short. None the less, with the heat combined with dew points in
the upper 60s and low 70s and an approaching upper trough and
surface cold front, there will be plenty of instability to lead
to the development of showers and thunderstorms, especially
from 18Z onward with initiation around the Finger Lakes region.
SBCAPE values are anywhere from 1500-2500 J/kg, and locally
higher, especially from I-81 on west, while guidance varies on
available MLCAPE. The GFS is more modest compared to the RAP/NAM
with 500-1000 J/km of MLCAPE while the RAP and NAM have
anywhere from 1000-2000 J/km. Low-level lapse rates are around
7-8.5 degrees C/km, but mid-level lapse rates are weak. Bulk
shear values continue to be weak as well, around 10-20 knots.
Putting this all together, there remains a marginal risk for an
isolated strong storm or two, with gusty winds the main concern,
but any stronger storm should just briefly pulse up before
coming back down.

The bigger concern this afternoon and evening is on the hydro
side. WPC continues to have a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
over most of the CWA from 12Z today through 12Z Monday. PWATs
continue to range from 1.75 to locally over 2.00 inches today
through Monday as moisture-rich air continues to be drawn up
ahead of the cold front that will slowly move from west to east
late today through Monday across the CWA. This air mass has
origins from the Gulf and Atlantic. With a pretty weak flow
aloft and MBE vectors on soundings at 7-8 knots and lower into
the early evening, slow-moving storms and even some training is
a concern that can lead to localized to scattered instances of
flash flooding. A flash flood watch has been issued from Steuben
County up through the Finger Lakes and toward the Tug Hill.
This zone in particular has some agreement among the CAMs for
becoming the most active zone this afternoon with heavy
thunderstorms with rainfall rates near or exceeding 1"/hr at
times. Showers and storms are expected to taper off to isolated
showers later tonight. It will remain warm and muggy with lows
in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

As the frontal boundary continues to slowly press east into
Monday, the flow will become more westerly and eventually west-
northwest later in the day so it won`t be quite as hot and dew
points come down slightly over north-central NY. The front will
spark additional showers and storms, especially during the
afternoon with the heating of the day. Most of the activity is
expected to be across NE PA and into the Catskills, with again
the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Highs Monday range
from the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
115 AM Forecast...

Lingering showers will remain across the Catskills and Poconos
Monday evening with the front finally clearing the area by
midnight. Behind the departing trough and front, high pressure
will build in from the west. Not much relief from the heat and
humidity is expected with the ridge building in as the normal
cooler and drier air accompanied by a frontal passage from the
NW will remain trapped in Canada and will not push its way into
the NE US.

Tuesday will see westerly flow advect warm air into the region
from the central US, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s so the air will not feel as
oppressive as previous days, but precautions will still need to
be made if spending the day outside. The mid-level ridge axis
will slide east of the area Tuesday afternoon, which will allow
a weak shortwave to move into the Mid-Atlantic region and tap
into CAPE values between 1500-2000 j/kg across NEPA and
Catskills, kicking off some scattered showers and storms across
this area. Any showers/storms that develop should dissipate by
the evening as peak heating and instability wane.

Tuesday night, the upper trough axis slides east of the area,
bringing full SW flow through the atmosphere, advecting in an
airmass from the southern US that will push dewpoints into the
upper 60s to low 70s by the morning. NBM dewpoint guidance was
a little too high for Wed, which tends to be the case in these
setups, so blended in NBM25th% which dropped dewpoints a few
degrees and seemed more reasonable. With expected highs reaching
the upper 80s to low 90s, these higher dewpoints will push heat
indices into the mid to upper 90s for most valley locations.
Higher elevations will see values in the low 90s. Because of
this, heat advisories may be needed for Wed across CNY. To go
along with the heat, a shortwave moving through the SW flow will
kick off some scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon.
Currently, any storms that develop look to be pulse convection
that builds and dies pretty quickly given the CAPE values
between 1500-2000 j/kg with 0-6km bulk shear under 20kts and mid
level lapse rates a measly 5-5.5C. PWATs climb to around 1.5in
during the afternoon, so some of the stronger storms that
develop could produce heavy downpours. Precip should dissipate
in the evening hours as we loose heating and instability.

Temps Wednesday night will be very warm with most locations in
the low 70s. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, it will
feel quite muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 AM Forecast...

A strong trough moves into the region at the end of the week
bringing scattered showers and storms on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will finally push through Friday sometime from late
morning to late afternoon. This will bring much needed relief
from heat and precipitation going into the weekend. Temps will
fall back to normal for this time of year (upper 70s to low 80s)
and dewpoints will fall back into the low 60s, making for much
more comfortable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the morning. AVP will
be an exception with the edge of the marine layer near the
terminal which will lead to MVFR/fuel-alt conditions at times.
Restrictions are expected to improve around 13-14Z. BGM will be
very close to some of these clouds as well, so there could be
some brief restrictions, but confidence wasn`t high enough to
include that in the TAF. There are some pockets of fog forming
south of ELM where skies are clear, so left a TEMPO for fog in
for a few hours before high clouds start to push in from the
west.

The rest of today, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
start popping up around 18-19Z over the Finger Lakes region and
push east. PROB30 groups remain in the TAFs highlighting the
best time range for storms. Some of the is expected to be heavy,
so visibility restrictions are possible into the evening. Some
spotty showers and lower ceilings may linger toward the end of
the TAF.

Outlook...

Monday... Restrictions possible from scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Wednesday night... Mainly VFR. A brief
thunderstorm with restrictions can not be ruled out Wednesday
afternoon.

Thursday... Afternoon and evening restrictions likely with
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through late tonight
     for NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...DK