496
FXUS61 KBGM 090954
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
554 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Times of clouds and sun today and remaining humid with just a
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorms in the afternoon and
at night. Showers and storms become more widespread Thursday,
especially in the afternoon. Quite warm and humid Friday through
the weekend with the next chance of widespread showers and
storms arriving later in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
305 AM Update...

Areas of low clouds and fog will be around to start early this
morning, and some of the fog will be locally dense in the
valleys. This is expected to clear by 12-14Z. Surface high
pressure over the area will slide off to the east this afternoon
and an upper level trough and embedded shortwave will gradually
move in from the west. A frontal boundary will also be fairly
stationary just south and east of the CWA over northern/central
NJ and southeast PA. As a result, a mix of sun and clouds is
expected and it will be humid with dew points in the mid and
upper 60s. There can be an isolated pop up shower or
thunderstorm in the afternoon, but model soundings look pretty
dry in the low and mid levels, and PoPs are less than 25%. Highs
today will be primarily in the low and mid 80s, while the
Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA remain quite warm in
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

The upper trough will continue to slowly press eastward tonight
but much of the area is expected to be largely dry. There is a
wave of low pressure that looks to move northeastward from the
mid-Atlantic to NJ along the stalled boundary with a plume of
moisture-rich air, and this can skirt the Poconos with spotty
showers tonight, mainly during the evening. Lows tonight will
mainly be in the lower to mid 60s.

The next frontal boundary will start to approach from the west
Thursday. Ahead of the front, a strong Bermuda high will
continue to spread plenty of moisture-rich air north over the
mid- Atlantic region and southern New England. While the bulk of
this deep moisture stays to our south and east, warm and humid
conditions ahead of the front and the upper trough still
overhead will lead to instability and the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday, primarily during
the afternoon. Some of the storms Thursday could be strong and
contain gusty to locally damaging winds with 1000-2000 J/kg of
CAPE (with higher values on the NAM), 25-30 knots of shear and
steep low-level lapse rates in place, but mid-level lapse rates
look marginal at this time around 5-6 degrees C/km. The SPC does
have the entire CWA outlooked with a marginal risk for severe
storms at this time. Highs Thursday again will be in the low to
mid 80s with some valley locations reaching the upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
200 AM Forecast...

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
late evening hours Thursday night. Instability decreases with the
lost of daytime heating, limiting the potential for any strong
storms lingering into the overnight hours. The trough that will
support the showers/storms lifts north late overnight, allowing
conditions to dry out as a ridge of high pressure begins to
build into the region.

A ridge continues to build into the region Friday. Weak waves will
try to kick off some afternoon showers and non-severe thunderstorms.
Drier air in place may be tough to overcome though, especially over
CNY. While chances are low, the best shower/storm chances will be
over NEPA and the Catskills where there will be slightly more
moisture available. Any showers/storms that develop come to an end
by Friday night.

Temperatures both nights will be in the 60s. Temperatures will climb
into the 80s on Friday. Dew points in the mid to to low 70s will
result in muggy conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 AM Forecast...

The weekend will start out mostly dry but a warm front will move
through on Saturday, which could support showers and thunderstorms
late in the day. Conditions then dry out overnight before shower
chances increase and become a bit more widespread Sunday as a cold
front approaches and eventually sweeps through the region. There is
uncertainty on the timing of the front as the GFS is quick to move
it through while the ECMWF is much slower with it. Due to this
uncertainty, shower chances will carry over into Monday given the
slower solutions, but then high pressure builds into the region
following the frontal passage. Drier conditions are expected by
Monday night and last through at least Tuesday. Spotty showers may
be possible Tuesday but with dry air in place, it may be a challenge
for anything to develop.

It will be a warm and muggy weekend after the warm front passes
through. Highs will be 80s and low 90s with dewpoints in the 60s and
low 70s. The cold front will be weak and brings little relief as
temperatures will remain in the 80s to start next week. Saturday
night will be the warmest night of this period with lows only in the
mid 60s to low 70s but then 60s are expected for the rest of the
nights into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and fog, primarily near ITH and ELM, are
expected to diminish by 14Z. VFR conditions are then expected
through much of the rest of the TAF period. There is a slight
chance of a pop up afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but
confidence is too low to include at any of the terminals. Spotty
showers and some lower ceilings may also skirt AVP tonight, but
the bulk of the shower activity is expected to pass by to the
south and east.

Model soundings do support the development of some shallow fog
later tonight and early tomorrow morning, especially around ITH
and ELM. Winds will be light throughout the forecast period.

Outlook...

Thursday...Restrictions possible with some showers and
thunderstorms around.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday into Sunday...Scattered showers/storms possible and
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DK