833
FXUS63 KDMX 061745
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions are expected again today with gusts up to
  around 40 mph, the highest gusts over northern Iowa.

- Next chance for rain/storms late Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Upper level pattern going forward is dominated by two closed low
systems, the first over the Great Lakes and the second that will be
near Saskatchewan and Manitoba by later tonight. As a result,
ridging also stays in place over the western CONUS keeping us in the
central Midwest in prolonged northwest flow through at least much of
the weekend. At the surface, a high pressure will drift through the
region today into tonight keeping the forecast dry today with ample
sunshine expected. The only exception to this may be the far
northeast where a few clouds may drift through with the upper low
helping to kick off showers and/or a few storms mainly in Wisconsin.
Although today will be pleasant from a temperature and humidity
standpoint with low humidity and highs in the 70s to low 80s, winds
are expected to increase again aided in part by a pair of 30-35+
knot jets through the low to mid-levels and boundary layer mixing
with another day of inverted-v soundings in some locations. Winds at
the top of the mixed layer aren`t nearly as high today as yesterday
but still reach towards 30-35 knots in especially northern Iowa. As
a result, sustained winds out of the northwest 20-30 mph and gusts
up to around 40 mph are forecast, with the highest gusts expected to
be in northern Iowa. Won`t rule out a few higher gusts, but overall
forecast has winds remaining just below wind advisory criteria.

Winds will quickly decrease tonight with the aforementioned surface
high and when paired with clear skies, should result in a cooler
night tonight where areas north may see some low temperatures in the
upper 40s.

Slightly warmer conditions are expected on Friday as mid-level flow
turns to be out of the west increasing our warm air advection as a
thermal ridge slides through. Another shortwave moving through the
upper northwest flow will start by increasing clouds Friday
afternoon followed by returning rain and storm chances to the
forecast mainly Friday night into early Saturday. Models are in much
better agreement with moisture return reaching into at least part of
the area but differ slightly in the overall track of the low. Any
storms in our area look to be elevated with the strongest storms
more likely west to south of the area where instability is much
higher. Won`t rule out a few storms, especially southwest, with
the potential for small hail and/or gusty winds in addition to
locally heavy rainfall, but the severe threat remains low at
this point on Friday night.

A few additional showers are possible into early Saturday, but the
bulk of the weekend looks dry and pleasant with highs remaining in
the 70s to low 80s with continued lower humidity. Enjoy it while you
can as temperatures look to climb by mid to late next into at least
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR cigs and vsbys to continue through the period. Primary
concern for the next 6 hours will be wind gusts for northern
terminals, especially KMCW and KALO. Gusts at these two sites
will be highest in the next 4 hours where peak gusts up to 45kts
are possible. Gusts up to 40kts will be possible through 23z
for these sites. KDSM, KFOD and KOTM will see gusts up to 35kts
at times through 23z. Winds will ease after sunset and shift to
southwesterly at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>039-047>050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KCM
AVIATION...Jimenez