Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 290448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

...06z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Main concern will be with cloudiness and temperatures overnight as
upper system slowly drifts through the region. Low clouds remained
extensive this afternoon although became more cellular with
daytime heating. A few light showers were occurring across the far
northeast near surface trof axis. The activity will continue for a
few more hours but should die off quickly with the approach of
sunset. Otherwise...short term models continue to indicate the
broad area of cloudiness to persist overnight and expand across
the central Iowa in an area of weak cold advection. The cloudiness
will keep temperatures slightly warmer than otherwise would be the
case with the airmass that`s in place.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Thursday/
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Relatively quiet conditions are expected on Friday with subsidence
across most of the area. However, the backside of the upper low a
cool temps aloft may lead to a few isolated showers across the
eastern portion of the forecast area and have continued a low
chance in those areas. Temperatures will remain below normal with
thermal trof nearby along extensive cloudiness. The quiet weather
will persist into Saturday with surface ridging hold firm over the
state. Warm advection will begin to intensify Saturday night into
Sunday as ridging slides east and southeast flow strengthens. By
Sunday night, theta-e advection will pass through central Iowa on
nose of low level jet with convection likely to expand across the
state, possibly persisting into Monday morning. Thereafter,
thermal ridging will expand into much of Iowa with temperatures
rising into the 90s for many areas by Tuesday into Wednesday. It
is likely heat index values of around 100 and possibly higher will
occur on Tuesday and Wednesday and will continue to monitor for
possible headlines. Otherwise, only other concern will be the
proximity of the westerlies just north of the state which may
allow for convection to creep into the state on these days, which
may keep temperatures cooler than expected.


.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Fairly tricky TAFs continue this evening with stratus expected to
continue to move in, possibly with pockets of IFR CIGs. Currently
MVFR CIGs at or in the vicinities of KFOD/KMCW/KALO and will
continue through the night before lifting/breaking up during the
day. KDSM and to a lesser extent KOTM will likely see MVFR as
well, but timing is in question with current slow progression.




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