Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 291741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH AN AREA
OF MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CURRENTLY LINGERING IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY MOVING
AWAY. BECAUSE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS OUR FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND A SUNNY AND NOTABLY COOLER AND
DRIER DAY IS IN STORE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AND NO WEATHER OF IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED...OTHER THAN SOME
MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND THEN THERE WILL BE ONE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND TO AFFECT
MUCH OF IOWA.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. IOWA BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
DECENT MIXING ANTICIPATED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS FOR BOTH DAYS WHICH CAUSED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX
TEMPS. A WEAK TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND LEFT FORECAST DRY
ATTM.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAIRLY STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDES THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING. SEVERE
WEATHER ATTM LOOKS LIMITED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
DEPICTED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTH TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. AT THIS TIME...LEFT ANY MENTION OF
FOG OUT OF TAFS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH AND
WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...KOTENBERG



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