Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 090533
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED BZ.W AND PORTIONS OF THE WW.Y TO EXPIRE. CONDITIONS
REMAIN POOR OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE LINGERING WW.Y WITH
INTERSTATE 35 NOW CLOSED FROM NEAR AMES TO CLEAR LAKE. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CIGS AND LOWER VISBY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z MOST SITES. GRADUALLY AFT 15Z WILL SEE OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WITH WINDS REMAINING NW 15-25KT THROUGH 00Z
WED. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS MAY EDGE EAST TOWARD KDSM BY 12-15Z./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BOONE-CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-
WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV


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