Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 231140
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER EXITING TO THE EAST PRIOR TO 15Z. IFR CIGS
AND LOW VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF I35 AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 15-17Z...LONGEST EAST.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP ERODE THE FOG/LOW ST THOUGH IT WILL TAKE
A FEW HOURS MORE TIME. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL BE PLEASANT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AFT 20Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV



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