173
FXUS64 KEPZ 051950
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
150 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Hot temperatures are expected into Friday with afternoon highs
100 to 108 degrees in the lowlands. Moisture increases into the
weekend, bringing an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the mountains. Strong downdraft winds
are the main threat with this activity. Temperatures cool to near
normal early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Very hot temperatures are expected Thursday, and most likely
continue into Friday as an upper high pressure builds into the
region.  A Heat advisory along the Lower Rio Grande continues into
Thursday and will likely be extended Friday. Thursday looks to be
the hottest day with highs of 107 at El Paso. Friday highs will be
dependent on how much thunderstorm coverage will be present, but
highs may be only a degree or two less.

Temperatures subside this weekend. However, thunderstorm activity
will likely increase as weak disturbances move across, and a
monsoonal-like environment develops. There is the potential for very
strong downdrafts and microbursts into Friday, with very air in the
low/mid levels. Rain chances decrease by Tuesday as the disturbances
move east.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR next 24 hours. Mainly south to southwest winds 8 KTS or less,
but winds may be variable at times. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible in the Sacramento Mountains, dissipating by sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Fire weather conditions will continue to be elevated into next week.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the Sacramento mountains this
afternoon, with dry lightning, along with erratic and gusty winds.
Showers and thunderstorms chances increase Thursday and Friday with
the a good chance of thunderstorms in the mountains, and lower
chances in the low lands. Several disturbances along will continue
to bring showers and thunderstorms chances Saturday into Monday with
more isolated potential by Tuesday.

Minimum RHs this afternoon and Thursday will be 5-12% across most
of the area except for in the Sacramento Mountains where they will
be 15-25%. Friday minimum RH values increase to 10 to 15 percent
with 25 percent in the mountains. Ventilation rates will be good to
very good through Thursday, then very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 107  80 106 /   0  10  20  30
Sierra Blanca            69  99  72  97 /  10  20  20  30
Las Cruces               70 105  73 105 /   0  10  20  30
Alamogordo               67 102  73 102 /   0  10  20  30
Cloudcroft               55  79  57  77 /   0  30  10  40
Truth or Consequences    71 102  73 101 /   0  10  20  30
Silver City              65  96  67  95 /  10  20  30  50
Deming                   66 104  68 104 /   0  10  30  30
Lordsburg                66 102  69 102 /   0  20  30  40
West El Paso Metro       74 103  77 103 /   0  10  20  30
Dell City                66 103  70 102 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Hancock             68 106  72 105 /  10  20  20  40
Loma Linda               70  97  73  96 /  10  10  20  30
Fabens                   70 106  75 105 /   0  10  20  30
Santa Teresa             69 102  71 103 /   0  10  30  30
White Sands HQ           76 103  78 102 /   0  10  20  30
Jornada Range            66 103  68 102 /   0  10  20  30
Hatch                    65 104  67 104 /   0  10  20  30
Columbus                 71 104  73 103 /   0  10  30  30
Orogrande                69 102  73 101 /   0  10  20  30
Mayhill                  58  90  61  89 /   0  30  10  50
Mescalero                58  89  60  88 /   0  20  10  40
Timberon                 56  88  58  87 /   0  30  10  40
Winston                  61  94  62  92 /   0  20  20  60
Hillsboro                67  99  69  98 /  10  10  20  50
Spaceport                62 102  65 100 /   0  10  20  30
Lake Roberts             61  96  64  95 /  10  20  30  50
Hurley                   63  99  65  98 /   0  10  30  40
Cliff                    62 104  66 103 /   0  20  20  40
Mule Creek               66  99  69  98 /   0  20  20  40
Faywood                  66  98  69  98 /   0  10  30  40
Animas                   66 102  69 102 /   0  20  30  40
Hachita                  66 102  69 102 /   0  10  30  30
Antelope Wells           66 101  69 100 /   0  20  40  30
Cloverdale               66  97  69  95 /   0  20  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...99