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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 101115
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
415 AM MST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOWLAND RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WEEK AND ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM TRACK
HAS CERTAINLY BEEN VERY EL NINO LIKE THIS YEAR WITH PLENTY OF
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.S. THAT MAKES
THINGS A LITTLE LESS WHITE FOR THE OLYMPICS UP NORTH IN VANCOUVER.
FOR US AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST MAKING THE TURN TO THE EAST OVER
SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. RIGHT
NOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE REST OF US WILL GET IN ON THE ACTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 7K BUT SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 5K BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON HOW MUCH SNOW THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GET WITH THE NAM ON THE LOW SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE
HIGH SIDE. I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT GET ONE MORE MODEL RUN IN BEFORE MAKING THE DECISION TO GO
WITH AN ADVISORY OR A WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RIGHT NOW FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH I`M GOING FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE GILA
MOUNTAINS AND 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE SACS. IN THE LOWLANDS A COUPLE
OF THINGS TO WATCH FOR. AS THE LOW COMES ACROSS WE COULD SEE A MIX
OF SNOW AND RAIN BRIEFLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT I`M NOT EXPECTING
ANY ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THAT AS THE LOW CENTER MOVE IN
EARLY ON THURSDAY WE COULD ALSO GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...RIGHT
NOW THERE IS ALREADY A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN ARIZONA. WITH IT BEING SO COOL ALOFT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO POP UP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO DROP SOME SMALL HAIL. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND THE LOW ITSELF WILL BE TO OUR EAST.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A RIDGE BUILD OUT
WEST AND THAT WILL KEEP US IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY THE GFS
IS INDICATING THAT A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THAT FRONT LOOKS DRY AND NOT VERY COLD. THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT NEXT WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW AFTER TONIGHT`S SYSTEM THE MODELS
ARE NOT INDICATING ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE PIPELINE FOR SOME TIME TO
COME.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS RUNNING SIX TO EIGHT DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA
WE CAN EXPECT OUR HIGHS TO RUN AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FOR FRIDAY WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER SO OUR
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY
WE WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND THEN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT ON
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS RUNNING AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE CAN EXPECT OUR HIGHS TO
RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...10/12Z-11/12Z
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LOWER CEILINGS
DURING THE DAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE WIDE
SPREAD LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM IN THE LOWLANDS...AND WITH THOSE FEW
THUNDERSTORSM COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL. MOST OF THE TIME TONIGHT
WE WILL HAVE MVRF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...BUT I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE HIT IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
CEILINGS...A COUPLE OF TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL START OUT WEST FIRST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS STARTING AT AROUND 7K. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5K BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH SNOW THE MOUNTAINS WILL
RECEIVE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE GILAS COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WHILE THE SACS COULD RECEIVE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF WINTERY MIX IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT I`M NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL
BE TO OUR EAST. WE WILL STAY UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FOR
THE WEEKEND SO WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT
WEDNESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW BOTH FRONTS LOOK DRY AND NOT TO COLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  38  53  37  61 /  10  50  40   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        49  33  48  33  59 /  10  40  40  10   0
LAS CRUCES              54  37  53  34  60 /  10  60  40   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  36  50  35  59 /  10  60  40  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  20  32  20  39 /  10  60  40  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  35  50  34  57 /  30  70  40   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  30  39  29  48 /  30  70  20   0   0
DEMING                  53  37  51  35  59 /  20  70  30   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  36  50  33  60 /  30  70  30   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NMZ022-025.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15