Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BORDERLAND IS CERTAIN TO GET MORE RAIN...AND A LOT OF
IT...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. FLASH
FLOODING...SOME OF IT SERIOUS IS EXPECTED...AND THE AREA IS UNDER
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN
AND CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL HANG BACK AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF WEATHER FEATURES TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA JUST OFF THE BAJA. WE SIT IN A DEEP AND VERY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ON THE STORMS WET EAST SIDE. PW`S ARE OVER
1.65" WITH A MAX OF NEAR 1 3/4" EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS PUTS OUR AREA JUST BELOW THE RECORD
LEVELS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER PW. THE STORM ITSELF WILL CONTINUE IT`S
TRACK NORTH AND A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN AZ...JUST SW OF
TUCSON, AZ. THE CENTER IS PROGED TO CROSS INTO THE U.S. LATE WED
EVENING...AND TRACK OVER THE GILA AND INTO CENTRAL NM ON THURSDAY.
THIS IS THE SET UP FOR THE ANTICIPATED WEATHER THE NEXT 72 HRS.

THIS AFTERNOON WE SEE CONVECTIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA IN THE REGION WITH BETTER SUNSHINE. THE
STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTH SO WE ANTICIPATED AN INCREASE IN
STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY AND DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH ANOTHER ODILE BAND. THIS SPOKE WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVER THE CWFA IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. OVERALL RAINFALL RATES OF .3 TO .75" PER HOUR IS EXPECTED
BUT THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 2X TO 3X THOSE
RATES...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT.

LIKE WE DID TODAY...WE MIGHT SEE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER IN THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AND MORE SO AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN
ACTIVITY STARTING OVER WESTERN ZONES IN THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA AS
ODILE BEGINS TO NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THIS AREA OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF INCREASE BOTH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THUS POPS IN THE 80-100% PROBABILITY ARE
COMMON AND STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
EAST...2-4" CENTRAL...3-5" WESTERN LOWLANDS...4-6" AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE PCPN AMOUNT ACROSS THE
REGION AND GREATER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-9" OVER LOCAL AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AREAS MTNS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. OF SPECIAL NOTE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WON`T TOTALLY DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS SO WE`LL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO CRAWL UP THE BAJA...MUCH LIKE NORBERT DID. IT COULD
GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z - 18/00Z...
AN IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY UP AROUND TROPICAL THE EASTERN SIDE OF
STORM ODILE...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDY SKIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO SOUTHERN NM /
WEST TX THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WED AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR LOWLAND CLDS SCT 010-020 BKN-OVC
CIGS TO 030-050 AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA.
CIGS TO 005 NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN
OBSCURATIONS THROUGH PD. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE FROM ENE-SE AROUND 06-09 KTS.

22-TRIPOLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN FOREASTING TRACK OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FEATURE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT INITIALLY HEADS NORTH
EAST INTO ARIZONA...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY
EVENING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

14-TRIPOLI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  80  68  82  69 /  90  80 100  90  50
SIERRA BLANCA           63  75  63  78  62 /  60  50  70  90  50
LAS CRUCES              65  79  65  80  66 /  90  90 100  90  50
ALAMOGORDO              66  80  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  80
CLOUDCROFT              51  58  49  61  49 / 100  90 100 100 100
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  79  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  60
SILVER CITY             59  75  60  75  60 / 100 100 100  90  70
DEMING                  63  80  64  82  64 /  90 100 100  80  50
LORDSBURG               64  80  65  80  64 / 100 100 100  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  79  68  82  68 /  90  80 100  90  50
DELL CITY               65  79  65  82  64 /  60  60  70 100  70
FORT HANCOCK            64  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  80  90  50
LOMA LINDA              62  74  62  75  64 /  90  60  90  90  60
FABENS                  67  80  66  82  67 /  80  80 100  90  50
SANTA TERESA            65  79  66  81  67 /  90  90 100  80  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  77  65  80  66 /  90  80 100  90  60
JORNADA RANGE           61  79  62  81  61 /  90  90 100  90  60
HATCH                   63  77  64  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  50
COLUMBUS                67  79  65  82  66 /  90  90 100  60  50
OROGRANDE               66  77  66  79  66 /  90  70  90 100  70
MAYHILL                 55  67  54  69  55 / 100  90 100 100 100
MESCALERO               56  68  55  71  56 / 100  90 100 100 100
TIMBERON                54  66  52  68  54 / 100  90 100 100  90
WINSTON                 56  71  55  72  58 /  90 100 100 100  70
HILLSBORO               60  75  59  75  62 /  90 100 100 100  70
SPACEPORT               62  77  63  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  60
LAKE ROBERTS            56  74  55  75  58 / 100 100 100 100  70
HURLEY                  61  77  61  77  63 / 100 100 100  80  70
CLIFF                   55  77  54  78  54 / 100 100 100  80  70
MULE CREEK              52  76  51  76  53 / 100 100 100  90  70
FAYWOOD                 60  76  61  76  63 /  90 100 100  80  70
ANIMAS                  65  78  66  82  65 / 100  90 100  60  60
HACHITA                 61  80  62  82  62 / 100 100 100  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  79  62  83  61 / 100  90 100  60  50
CLOVERDALE              59  78  59  79  62 / 100  90 100  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/22





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