412
FXUS64 KEPZ 190529
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1129 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Above average warmth continues through Monday until a pacific
cool front pushes into the area from the west bringing
temperatures back down to normal or just below normal values.
Otherwise, we can continue to expect very dry conditions with no
precipitation chances in sight and afternoon breeziness that calms
after sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Nice and quiet conditions will continue into tonight before breezy
afternoon winds return Sunday. A longwave trough focused over the
northern CONUS and Canada will allow for westerly flow over the
Borderland Sunday. We can continue to expect high temperatures to
increase the next couple days and El Paso may approach 100
degrees either day. 100 degrees is the record for May 19th and
20th. Other than afternoon breezes Sunday, we can expect generally
sunny skies and very dry weather. Heading into Monday, a
shortwave trough will approach the area from Baja California
bringing deep southwest flow over the area. In addition, this
feature will bring along a cool front late Monday into Tuesday
morning. Warm air will continue to be funneled into the area which
may bring us right at 99 or could tip the scale and reach 100
degrees. NBM probabilities don`t appear to impressive of reaching
100 degrees for El Paso on Monday but it isn`t out of the
question.

The aforementioned cool front swings by bringing high temperatures
back to normal or just below Tuesday. Multiple embedded
disturbances will keep winds breezy each afternoon with
temperatures staying fairly constant. Very dry weather will
continue with no precipitation chances in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions through the period at all terminals. Skies generally
SKC. Winds W-WNW through the night AOB 10kts.  AFT 18Z winds 240-270
and increasing to 12-16 knots with gusts 20-30 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions possible Sunday afternoon for the
Sacramento Mtns. 20ft winds will generally be southwesterly at
10-20 MPH with critical min RHs areawide. Red Flag criteria could
be met in very isolated areas in this small area. However, Monday
we are expecting near critical to critical fire weather conditions
for all of our fire weather zones excluding far west TX. Min RH
values continue to decrease as the work week goes on with much of
the lowlands seeing single digit values. West to southwest winds
may marginally reach red flag criteria but it is borderline on if
winds will reach this specific threshold but it does have a
chance of reaching criteria. However, what swayed us to go ahead
with the Red Flag warning was the critically dry air and fuels.
The Gila regions fuels are still fairly wet compared to the rest
of the area but the best winds will be seen in this area and over
southern NM. Lighter winds will be found in far west TX which
limits the fire weather threat even though the fuels and min RHs
are quite dry.

A cool front will push in from the west late Monday and into
Tuesday but won`t be too noticeable, generally just winds shifting
west northwest that morning. Elevated fire weather conditions
possible again for isolated locations in the highest terrain of
southern NM and the Sacramento Mtns. Critically low min RH values
will persist with borderline breezy winds Wednesday which could
make for somewhat elevated fire conditions. Low end breezes
continue Wednesday through the work week with very low min RHs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  98  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            63  93  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               62  95  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               61  93  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  70  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    61  92  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              54  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   57  93  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                57  90  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  94  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  96  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             61  98  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               63  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   63  97  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  93  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           69  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            58  92  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  94  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 63  93  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                61  92  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  53  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                52  80  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 50  79  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  52  82  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                57  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                55  91  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             50  82  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   52  85  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    55  88  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               55  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  55  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   55  91  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  57  92  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           56  91  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               56  85  55  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers