Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 260905
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
305 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico
and west Texas resulting in more showers and thunderstorms across
the Borderland today and tonight. A few storms may again produce
damaging winds...hail and heavy rains. High pressure aloft and
westerly winds will bring very warm mostly drier weather across
the region Tuesday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large thermal/heat trough at the surface to the west will continue
to combine with high pressure to the east to maintain low level
south to southeast winds today with inflow of more moist air into
southern New Mexico and west Texas. Surface dewpoints will remain
mostly in the mid 50s to lower 60s and precipitable water will
range from around 1.1 to 1.3 inches most location. The air mass
will thus remain rather unstable with MUCAPEs around 1000 to 2000
J/kg this afternoon. Little convective inhibition will exist and
models are also suggesting a weak short wave will rotate southward
into the CWA late this afternoon and this evening. So expect
another day of deep convection as upslope flow and diurnal
warming will also act to initiate storms with further development
occurring via outflow boundaries.

The abundant moisture and instability will again support a few
storms dropping heavy rains and causing flash flooding. Low level
southeast winds will occur under northwest flow aloft resulting in
deep layer shear around 30 kt which will further enhance updrafts
and support several storms producing large hail. Finally a few
severe downbursts are possible as DCAPE values will mostly exceed
1200 J/kg.

The upper ridge to the west will expand as it drifts south of the
border Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds aloft will therefore become
more westerly with downslope conditions and associated warming
causing development of surface trough through eastern New Mexico.
Thus low level winds will also become westerly with advection of
very warm and much drier air mass. Consequently warmer drier
weather is forecasted Tuesday through Friday. Modest amounts of
moisture will enter the CWA next weekend supporting mainly
isolated storms.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 26/12z-27/12z.
A few areas of MVFR ceilings and visibility in showers and
thunderstorms especially between 20z and 06z. Several storms may
produce hail and wind gsust to 50 kt. Otherwise SCT-BKN 050-100
with wind speeds around 5 to 15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico
and west Texas resulting in more showers and thunderstorms across
the Borderland today and tonight. A few storms may again produce
damaging winds...hail and heavy rains. High pressure aloft and
westerly winds will bring very warm mostly drier weather across
the region Tuesday through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 93  73  97  74 /  20  40  20  20
Sierra Blanca           89  68  92  70 /  30  30  20  20
Las Cruces              93  70  97  67 /  20  40  10   0
Alamogordo              90  66  95  67 /  20  30  20  20
Cloudcroft              69  49  71  54 /  50  50  20  20
Truth or Consequences   91  71  96  67 /  20  30  20   0
Silver City             87  65  93  62 /  50  40  20   0
Deming                  94  69  97  65 /  20  40   0   0
Lordsburg               94  65  98  66 /  20  30   0   0
West El Paso Metro      92  72  96  73 /  20  40  20  10
Dell City               92  63  95  67 /  30  30  20  20
Fort Hancock            94  69  98  72 /  30  40  20  20
Loma Linda              86  69  92  70 /  20  40  20  20
Fabens                  94  68  97  72 /  20  40  20  20
Santa Teresa            93  68  96  70 /  20  40  10   0
White Sands HQ          91  74  95  71 /  20  40  20   0
Jornada Range           92  64  96  65 /  20  40  20   0
Hatch                   95  66  96  65 /  20  40  10   0
Columbus                96  69  97  69 /  20  40   0   0
Orogrande               91  71  96  71 /  20  40  20  20
Mayhill                 73  56  80  58 /  50  50  20  20
Mescalero               79  51  82  57 /  50  50  20  20
Timberon                75  52  80  57 /  50  50  20  20
Winston                 84  59  88  58 /  50  50  20   0
Hillsboro               89  63  94  62 /  50  50  20   0
Spaceport               93  61  97  64 /  20  40  20   0
Lake Roberts            85  54  89  54 /  50  50  20   0
Hurley                  86  64  92  61 /  30  40   0   0
Cliff                   94  60  98  59 /  40  40  20   0
Mule Creek              92  62  95  62 /  30  40   0   0
Faywood                 89  62  95  61 /  40  50   0   0
Animas                  96  69  99  66 /  20  30  10   0
Hachita                 95  66  99  65 /  20  30   0   0
Antelope Wells          94  71  97  67 /  20  30  10   0
Cloverdale              92  66  95  64 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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