Area Forecast Discussion
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678
FXUS64 KEPZ 302105
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
300 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds at the surface and aloft have rapidly returned to
usher in drier and warmer conditions and bring back more typical
spring weather to the Borderland for the work week ahead.
Temperatures will warm back up into the upper 80s Monday and
Tuesday. Although winds will not be overly strong, they will be
occasionally breezy in the afternoon hours. A weak dry backdoor
cold front from the east will push in and drop temperatures about
5 to 8 degrees or so for next Thursday but temperatures should
rapidly rebound and rise to around 90 degrees by next Friday and
Saturday. A fairly strong Pacific storm system will approach the
Borderland by next weekend and bring a threat of increasing winds
and showers.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
With yesterday`s storm system well to our east (center as of 20Z
was over the KS/OK border) drier and warmer WNW flow at the
surface and aloft as already start to warm us back up. As
yesterday`s massive upper trough continues to progress eastward,
riding aloft off the Pacific coast will continue to develop and move
into the western United states. As this ridge continues to amplify
longitudinally, it will places New Mexico under a deep dry NW
flow pattern and keep us mainly clouds free through the upcoming
work week. Upper air heights will rise and with some lee
cyclogenesis and dry adiabatic westerly winds down the slopes,
temperatures will return to the upper 80s for the first part of
the week.

One derivative of the amplified Pacific ridge to our west will be
that it will act as a conduit for a shot wave trough to drop
southeastward from northwest Canada into the Great Plains and
move a minor backdoor dry cold front into the CWA later Wednesday
and Thursday. At this time the only collateral damage should be
about a 5 to 8 degree temperature drop Thursday along with some
clouds and a few showers over the Southern Sacramento Mountains.
during this period. The rest of the region should remain dry. With
the cool front push into the region THU will be the cool day for
this package with a drop of about 8 degrees.

The only weather of interest at this time appears to be starting
next weekend as a much stronger deep Pacific storm system is
forecast to drop down and deepen into a large upper level closed
low over southern California by next sunday and remain there into
the first part of next week. GFS and ECMWF agree about to 144
hours then diverge on the position of the low but either solution
will result in drawing in subtropical moisture into our area with
implications into next week of gusty winds and increasing showers
and thunderstorms.With this potential setup at this time of year
we could possibly see some strong and or severe thunderstorms.
Stay tuned.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 01/00Z-02/00Z...
P6SM SKC through period. Winds will generally be W to NW decreasing
from 10-20G30KTS by 03Z to BLO 10KTS.  Winds will increase again
around 18Z to 10-15G25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Northwest flow over the region will bring a return to hot and dry
conditions for much of the upcoming week.  Relative humidities will
return back to the single digits to mid teens starting Monday and
remain so through the week.  Winds will start out occasionally
breezy but should remain under critical criteria through Tuesday
before decreasing for the later half of the week as an upper ridge
builds over the region. Vent rates will start out very good to
excellent but fall into the fair to good range as winds decrease the
second half of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  85  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           49  83  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              46  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              45  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              33  58  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   44  80  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             42  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  44  82  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               44  82  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               45  85  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            50  87  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              49  79  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  51  86  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            49  84  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          49  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           42  82  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   44  83  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                48  85  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               48  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 36  68  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               35  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                37  66  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 35  74  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               43  79  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               41  82  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            33  74  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  41  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   38  81  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              39  77  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 43  78  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  44  83  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 43  83  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          44  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              44  80  47  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/26 Novlan / Grzywacz



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