Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261141
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
541 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKENED WILL BE WEST OF RIVER.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE END OF JULY WE ARE IN THE HEART OF MONSOON
SEASON. WE`VE BEEN PRETTY DRY THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
TIME OF YEAR IT IS TOUGH TO MAINTAIN THAT DRYNESS. THERE IS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE
WILL TRY AND PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE ARIZONA BORDER AND INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. I`VE GIVEN LOCATION WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY TRIES TO PUSH EAST WE WILL
SEE OUR RAIN CHANCE SPREAD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BY MONDAY
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION TO
GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM AREA WIDE...THIS DESPITE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRY ONE MORE TIME TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SO THOSE DAYS WILL SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION...BUT NOT
ELIMINATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HAVE
WORKED ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION ON THURSDAY THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE
FORECAST. I HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE OUR RAIN CHANCES HIGHER
STARTING THE FIRST OF THE COMING WEEK...BUT IF THE MODELS KEEP TO
THE FORECAST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP JUMPING POPS HIGHER ESPECIALLY
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

WE WILL SEE LITTLE RELIEF TO OUR HEAT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW MANY LOWLAND
LOCATIONS TO FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK. AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS TO THE REGION WE WILL SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE HIGHS
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND IF THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED WE MAY EVEN SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. EAST OF THE DIVIDE WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CEILINGS AT SCT090...WHILE WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WE MAY SEE CEILINGS OF BKN090 IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...WHILE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WE WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS TODAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS CONTROLLED OUR
WEATHER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING ITS GRIPE ON OUR WEATHER.
WE`VE BEEN MAINLY DRY THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT MOISTURE COTNINUES
TO LURK TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SOME OF THAT MOISTURE MAY TRY AND
SLIP ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER SO WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. ON SUNDAY THE
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY. IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD
TOGETHER WE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINS FOR THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL
THRESSHOLDS EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBLILITY OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM THE MID TEENS
IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY TO NEAR 20% IN
THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE MID 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDWEEK TO
THE MID 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 40% IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                101  77 100  77  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           96  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              99  71  98  71  95 /   0   0   0  10   0
ALAMOGORDO             100  72  99  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              79  51  77  51  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   98  70  97  70  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             92  62  91  62  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  99  71  98  71  95 /   0  10   0  20   0
LORDSBURG               98  70  98  70  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO     101  76 100  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY              100  68  99  68  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           103  74 102  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              93  68  94  68  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                 102  74 101  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA           100  72  99  72  96 /   0   0   0  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          98  73  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           98  67  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                  102  69  98  69  98 /   0   0   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                99  71  96  71  95 /   0  10   0  20   0
OROGRANDE              101  71 100  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 86  61  85  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
MESCALERO               88  58  87  58  84 /  20  10  10  20  10
TIMBERON                86  57  85  57  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
WINSTON                 90  63  91  63  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               94  69  95  69  89 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               98  70  97  70  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            92  58  93  58  88 /  30  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  94  62  93  62  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLIFF                   97  60  96  61  95 /  30  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              94  57  95  57  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 94  66  95  66  89 /  20  20   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  98  70  98  71  94 /  20  30  20  30  10
HACHITA                 97  69  97  69  93 /  10  20  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          99  72  98  72  95 /  10  30  20  30  10
CLOVERDALE              93  64  94  64  88 /  20  30  30  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.