Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 160904
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
304 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds will bring seasonably warm mostly dry weather to
southern New Mexico and west Texas today through Friday. Southerly
winds will push moisture back into the region and this will
generate increasing shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy
rains and possible flooding this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Ridge of high pressure aloft across northern Mexico plus
troughing to the north will induce deep westerly flow across
southern New Mexico and west Texas the next three days with inflow
of warm dry air mass most areas. Surface dewpoints will fall
below 50 F wand precipitable water mostly under an inch with the
dry stable conditions causing warm mostly dry weather the next 3
days.

By early Saturday high pressure both at the surface and aloft will
become established over central Texas. Concurrently upper trough
will move slowly into California while broad summer heat/thermal
surface low covers most of the southwestern United States. This
pattern will induce a deepening low and mid level southerly wind
component with advection of Gulf of Mexico and/or Gulf of
California moisture. Thus over the weekend surface dewpoints rise
back into the 50s and lower 60s most locations with precipitable
water increasing to around 1.3 to 1.6 inches by Sunday afternoon.
The moisture will also contribute to air mass destabilization with
Sunday afternoon CAPEs around 1000 J/kg. Thus will forecast
increasing chances for convection this weekend as models hint at
possible weak short waves entering the CWA from the south.

Latest guidance plus ensembles now indicate pattern will show
little changes into early next week with possible weak cold front
entering the CWA from the north. Models showing precipitable water
around 1.3 to 1.5 inches and CAPEs around 1000 into next Wednesday
indicating potential for deep convection will persist. Given the
abundant moisture and slow storm motion vectors primary hazard
will be heavy rains and flash flooding. However with moderate
instability also present several storms may produce hail and
possible wet microbursts.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/12z-17/12z.
VFR with mostly CLR-SCT100 conditions and surface winds around 5
to 15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds will bring seasonably warm mostly dry weather to
southern New Mexico and west Texas today through Friday. Southerly
winds will push moisture back into the region and this will
generate increasing shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy
rains and possible flooding this weekend into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 95  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           93  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              93  63  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              94  65  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              72  50  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   93  64  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             85  57  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  93  60  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               91  62  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      95  67  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               97  66  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            97  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              89  65  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  96  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            94  67  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          94  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           94  63  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   96  62  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                93  62  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               94  67  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 85  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               85  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                83  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 89  54  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               91  61  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               94  65  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            86  53  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  87  56  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   90  58  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              86  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 89  56  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  91  60  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 92  61  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          91  61  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              86  61  88  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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