Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN WE WILL SEE OUR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF RAIN
CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE HAS RETURNED AND SO HAVE OUR RAIN CHANCES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AMOUNT OF WATER VAPOR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE) HAVE CREPT ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND
BY FRIDAY THEY WILL BE 1.30 TO 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT AS USUAL DURING THE MONSOON
SEASON WE DON`T HAVE A REAL GOOD TRIGGER TO CONVERT THE WATER
VAPOR TO THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO LET THE SUN AND TERRAIN
GET THINGS GOING AND THEN ONCE THE OUTFLOWS START GOING AROUND WE
WILL SEE MORE WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT THAN WE HAVE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE OUT SO OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF STARTS TO DRY US OUT AND MAYBE EVEN
SIGNAL AN END TO OUR MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS US PRETTY WET WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH AND LOTS OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER IT. FOR NOW I WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION...BUT THE END OF THIS
YEAR`S MONSOON PATTERN MAY COME SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS FINALLY COOL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL TODAY AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS HELP KEEP US FROM
GETTING SO WARM. FOR TODAY EL PASO WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ITS
STREAK OF DAYS WITH 90+ FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THE
STREAK STANDS OUT 99. IF WE DO REACH 90 TODAY IT WON`T BE BY MUCH
AND IT WILL BE EVEN HARDER TO HIT 90 ON FRIDAY. IF WE MAKE IT
PAST FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SO THAT
WOULD CONTINUE THE STREAK A WHILE LONGER...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE STREAK MAY END ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE RETURNED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. WE WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT IN SOME AREAS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STORM MOVEMENTS TODAY WILL BE TO THE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS WE WILL SEE SCT-BKN070-120
SKIES. LATER IN THE DAY WE WILL SEE BKN070 CEILINGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA TODAY.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
(EXCEPT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS). MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR
HIGHER EVERYWHERE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 91  69  90  68 /  20  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           90  65  91  64 /  10  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              88  64  85  62 /  20  30  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              89  65  89  64 /  20  20  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              67  49  67  48 /  40  30  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   84  63  82  61 /  40  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             78  57  77  56 /  50  40  60  50
DEMING                  85  62  86  60 /  40  30  50  40
LORDSBURG               83  62  84  60 /  50  40  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  69  91  68 /  20  20  10  30
DELL CITY               93  69  94  68 /  10  20  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            93  69  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
LOMA LINDA              87  65  87  64 /  10  20  10  20
FABENS                  92  67  92  65 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            89  67  88  65 /  20  30  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          88  66  87  65 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           87  65  86  63 /  20  30  20  30
HATCH                   87  63  86  60 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                87  63  87  62 /  30  30  40  40
OROGRANDE               89  67  88  66 /  20  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 75  55  75  54 /  40  30  40  30
MESCALERO               77  55  77  53 /  40  30  40  40
TIMBERON                75  56  75  55 /  30  20  30  30
WINSTON                 74  55  73  52 /  50  40  50  50
HILLSBORO               84  59  82  57 /  40  40  50  40
SPACEPORT               85  63  84  61 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            76  51  74  48 /  50  40  60  50
HURLEY                  80  58  80  56 /  40  40  50  40
CLIFF                   81  58  80  55 /  50  40  60  50
MULE CREEK              79  54  76  51 /  50  40  60  50
FAYWOOD                 82  58  80  56 /  40  40  50  40
ANIMAS                  82  62  83  61 /  50  40  50  40
HACHITA                 84  61  85  59 /  50  40  50  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  60  82  58 /  50  50  50  40
CLOVERDALE              76  58  77  58 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE



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