Area Forecast Discussion
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094
FXUS64 KEPZ 101108
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
408 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A SAYING IN METEOROLOGY BIG BUBBLE...NO TROUBLE AND THAT
PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP OUR WEATHER. THOUGH WE DON`T ACTUALLY HAVE A
BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ON US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER IS BASICALLY THE SAME THING. THE
RIDGE IS HERE AND IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (MAYBE ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA)...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH WILL SQUASH THE RIDGE A
BIT. IMAGINE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS A BALLOON. WHEN YOU SQUEEZE
THAT BALLOON IT TRIES TO POP OUT BETWEEN YOUR FINGERS...WELL OUR
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED BY THE TROUGH AND IT WILL
SIMPLY POP UP BACK TO OUR WEST AND THEN SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SO FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO COME TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...FOR NOW ALL THE SOLUTIONS POINT TO A CONTINUATION OF
OUR DRY WARM WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE STAYING PLACE...WE MIGHT SEE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK
VERY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 10/12Z-11/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND OUR SURFACE WINDS AT
LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER AND IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RH`S WILL BE
PRETTY DRY WITH LOW TO MID TEENS COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IN THE LOW 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  37  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           68  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  32  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  35  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  33  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  68  26  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               69  29  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  38  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               70  28  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            70  33  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  36  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  69  31  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  31  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  25  72  29 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   69  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  28  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  37  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               59  30  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                59  37  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 65  34  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               69  34  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            66  22  70  25 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  66  28  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   68  21  71  25 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              70  21  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 67  32  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  31  75  32 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 70  28  74  30 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          68  30  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              69  34  75  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15



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