Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271134
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
434 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WE WILL SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT WARM WESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IT WILL BE
DRIER AND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OFF AND ON FOR THE LAST WEEK WE`VE HAD A COLD
FRONT STRADDLED ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TIME AROUND
THE COLD AIR FROM THE EAST HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE BETTER PUSH SO MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT THE WARM
WEST WINDS WON`T PUT UP LONG WITH THAT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE OUR WINDS FLIP BACK AROUND TO THE WEST SO THAT
WHAT WAS BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
LATE SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES PUSH INTO THE WEST
LATE ON SUNDAY AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY THIS WILL BE A PRETTY WARM SYSTEM SO WE WON`T EXPECT
MUCH SNOW BELOW 8K FEET. THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OFF SENDING MOST OF ITS ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A HANG BACK TROUGH WHICH WON`T HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WHEN IT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO SWING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION SO WHAT WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE MAIN
TROUGH SLIDES BY ON WEDNESDAY GUESS WHAT...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE AREA...SO WE WILL AGAIN SEE IT
STRADDLING THE REGION GIVING THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL NOT
BE AS AFFECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KTCS TO KALM. FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS BUT CEILINGS ARE NOT AS LIKELY. BY THE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE VFR FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY...THOUGH OUT WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WE COULD SEE THE
WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS BUT WE SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR WINDS MOST DAYS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE MAY HAVE SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. FOR TODAY A COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS THE
AREA SO WE CAN EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST. BUT FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE EVERYONE`S
WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE WEST WHICH WILL WARM THINGS BACK
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA. IT WILL HELP SPREAD A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND...AS I MENTIONED...IT WILL GIVE US SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WE WILL STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL MIN RH`S LEVEL WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF HUDSPETH COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE BY THE END OF
THE COMING WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  39  70  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  28  64  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              55  35  66  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  36  62  43  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  27  44  33  48 /  10  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  37  58  44  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             51  35  58  40  55 /   0  10  20  20  20
DEMING                  59  36  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               59  37  65  40  63 /   0   0   0  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  42  69  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               38  28  62  38  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  35  69  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              44  34  61  46  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  37  72  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            56  36  70  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  36  66  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           53  29  65  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   56  35  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                61  42  65  45  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  35  65  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  26  53  37  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               41  28  52  34  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  27  53  37  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 46  35  50  40  55 /   0  10  20  20  10
HILLSBORO               50  37  60  44  60 /   0   0  20  10  10
SPACEPORT               53  32  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            49  34  55  38  54 /   0  10  30  30  30
HURLEY                  52  34  60  40  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
CLIFF                   57  35  64  40  61 /   0  10  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              55  29  58  34  57 /   0  10  30  40  40
FAYWOOD                 50  37  60  42  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  63  43  68  42  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 62  42  68  41  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  45  70  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              60  44  66  42  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE





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