Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE



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