Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261012
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
312 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD
LOWLAND RAIN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOWS. A MIX OF
BOTH POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. YESTERDAY`S WINDS ARE STILL WITH US BUT
THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. THOSE WINDS WILL BRING A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EAST SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT POSSIBLY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS. SATURDAY`S SUNBOWL
WEATHER LOOKS DRY AND CHILLY WITH A COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE AND
DISSIPATING CLOUDS. DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING TOWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TUESDAY AND A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN
EARLY THURSDAY. THE REGION COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE THAT THE BEST PCPN
WITHIN THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM IS CURRENTLY ARCHED ACROSS
THE CWFA. LOOKING AT TUCSON RADAR IMAGERY...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER SE AZ. LOWLAND SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE
30S OVER HIDALGO AND LUNA COUNTIES. LORDSBURG DID REPORT BRIEF
SNOW...SO HAS SILVER CITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING LOWLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. STILL DON`T EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION BELOW 5000 FT OUT WEST...DESPITE MODELS SUGGESTING 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE BOOTHEEL AND SW DESERTS. JUST DON`T FEEL THAT
THE PCPN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR OF A DURATION TO ALLOW IT
WITH THE LOW PW`S WE HAVE. THE SNOW ADVISORY WE HAVE OVER THE GILA
WILL ALSO HAVE TROUBLE VERIFYING IT SEEMS...BUT WILL LEAVE IT AS IS
BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...AND IS ALREADY
SPREAD SW TO NE FROM DEMING THROUGH HATCH TOWARD THE NORTHERN END
OF THE TULAROSA BASIN. THIS ARCH WILL MOVE E AND S INTO THE LOWER
RIO GRAND VALLEY OF NM AND OVER THE OTERO MESA AND FAR WEST TEXAS
AREAS THIS MORNING...AT THE SAME TIME ENDING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. TODAY A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH IN AND BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO REVERSE YESTERDAY`S WARM TEMPS DOWN
TO BELOW NORMAL. THIS FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
IT`S STRONG JET ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG TODAY WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. LOWLAND TEMPS IN THE 40S TO
L50S WILL BE COMMON.

PCPN LOOKS TO BE BEST OVER THE SACS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND UPSLOPE
AND FAVORABLE LOCATION UNDER THE UPPER WAVE WILL WORK TO PROVIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD ON ACCUMULATION...
BUT THE SPREAD IS 3-7 INCHES LANDING WELL WITHIN ADVISORY RANGE.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT SATURDAY...ONLY FAR WEST TEXAS...HUDSPETH...LOOKS
TO BE UNDER ANY PCPN THREAT AFTER THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. HOWEVER WHAT
PCPN THEY GET OVERNIGHT WILL BE SNOW. THE SUNBOWL WEATHER LOOKS
DRY AND COLD WITH A LIGHTER WIND FROM THE NORTH...AND DISSIPATING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN TO BRING MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
SWING IN LATE WED/EARLY THU. THE COMBO COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS
ALL ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE DURING THIS DAY 5-7
SPAN IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z- 27/12Z...
UPPER STORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOME RAIN AND SOME SNOW. THUS
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE AS BAND OF PCPN MOVES OVER EACH TERMINAL.
SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 5000FT WITH MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS BELOW
TO THE DESERT FLOOR ELEVATION. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP INTO IFR
TERRITORY FOR A TIME...IMPROVING WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER PRECIP
DEPARTS. THUS...SKIES FEW-SCT030 SCT-BKN080 OVC120 THRU 18Z FOR
KDMN AND TCS. SAME FOR KLRU AND KELP FOR 15Z THRU 23Z. CLEARING
AND IMPROVING WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTN. WINDS TO BE BRISK AGAIN
WITH WINDS 260-280 AT 15-25KT G 35 POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD PACIFIC STORM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH PACIFIC COLD
FRONT TO SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WEST EARLY TODAY AND SHIFT TO
CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 4500 FEET THIS MORNING. PARTS
OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTOS MAY SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...HIGHEST ABOVE 7500
FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 8500 FEET. BREEZY TO
WINDY AGAIN TODAY. BELOW- NORMAL TEMPERATURES (5-10 DEG) WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
BRING MORE PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  29  47  24  51 /  40  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  31  46  23  51 /  30  10  20  10   0
LAS CRUCES              49  26  45  21  49 /  40   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  24  44  18  47 /  50   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              29  12  28  12  35 /  60   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  23  41  20  49 /  30   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             38  19  38  19  43 /  30   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  48  22  45  19  49 /  40   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  20  43  19  48 /  30   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      50  27  46  27  51 /  50  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               57  28  47  20  53 /  30  10  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            57  31  50  23  54 /  30  10  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              46  30  42  23  46 /  50  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  53  29  48  22  52 /  40  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            51  26  46  20  50 /  50   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          48  29  45  24  49 /  40   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           48  19  45  15  49 /  40   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   49  24  46  20  51 /  40   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  28  46  23  50 /  40   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  26  44  21  48 /  50   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 40  19  35  15  43 /  50   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               37  15  34  14  40 /  50   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                38  19  35  16  40 /  50   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 38  17  37  16  46 /  30   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               43  21  40  19  47 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               47  20  44  17  50 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            36  15  37  15  43 /  20   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  40  18  40  18  45 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   41  15  43  16  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  11  40  13  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 41  21  40  20  45 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  23  46  20  52 /  30   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 49  21  46  17  51 /  40   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          50  22  47  17  54 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  21  44  19  51 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NMZ413.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NMZ402-403-408.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR NMZ414-415.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ419.

&&

$$

14-BIRD




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