Area Forecast Discussion
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618
FXUS64 KEPZ 250955
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
355 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across New Mexico and west Texas
while an upper level low pressure system develops over the
southwestern United States. This weather pattern will bring much
cooler and windy conditions along with rain showers and a few
thunderstorms to the Borderland the next few days. Temperatures
will warm to near normal later this week but there will be
sufficient moisture for a few thunderstorms through the forecast
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Southern portions of high amplitude upper trough extended into
southwestern New Mexico early this morning with 100 kt jet streak
over Arizona plus low level cold air advection expected to support
formation of deep close low over the area before noon. The low
will subsequently drift southwest into northwestern Mexico later
today and become located over central Baja by late Monday morning.
Cyclonic circulation around the low center will induce mid level
south to southeast winds through Tuesday with transport of
moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and Baja into southern New
Mexico and west Texas.

Concurrently a strong cold front will push to the southwest across
the cwa today with increasing east to northeast winds behind the
boundary advecting much cooler air into the area. Thus expect
Monday high temperatures to be around 20 degrees below normal. In
addition strengthening gradients behind the front will push wind
speeds to near advisory levels by early evening...especially along
western mountain slope areas. The overall weather circulation
pattern will include the moist air to the south being
isentropically forced up and over the dome of cool air at low
levels and this will generate widespread rain showers this evening
and Monday.

On Tuesday upper low moves into Arizona and then phases with an
approaching Pacific trough Wednesday. Thursday and Friday the
high amplitude Pacific trough moves into the western United
States. Meanwhile at low levels the circulation will be dominated
by broad area of high pressure over the southern plains and
central Texas while low pressure covers the southwestern United
States west of the divide. This scenario will induce south to
southeast low level winds beneath south to southwest winds aloft
with attendant moisture inflow. Consequently moisture will
increase with surface dewpoints rising above 50 most areas by
Wednesday afternoon with precipitable water above an inch. In
addition the flow will also advect warmer air back into the cwa
with temperatures increasing to near normal by Thursday. Air mass
thus becomes more unstable resulting in a threat of thunderstorms
Wednesday through at least Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 25/12z-26/12z.
Mostly vfr conditions with areas of ceilings above 10,000 feet agl
through 00z. After 00z scattered areas of mvfr and isolated areas
of ifr ceilings and visibility in showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Surface winds also increasing after 00z with east
to northeast winds gusting from 35 to 45 kt. Areas of strong
turbulance also possible below 5000 feet agl after
00z...especially along western slopes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong cold front will move across New Mexico and west Texas
while an upper level low pressure system develops over the
southwestern United States. This weather pattern will bring much
cooler and windy conditions along with rain showers and a few
thunderstorms to the Borderland the next few days. Temperatures
will warm to near normal later this week but there will be
sufficient moisture for a few thunderstorms through the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 77  57  62  51 /  20  60  60  20
Sierra Blanca           74  53  56  46 /  60  60  50  30
Las Cruces              76  54  62  49 /  20  40  50  20
Alamogordo              77  54  63  48 /  20  40  40  20
Cloudcroft              58  36  45  36 /  40  40  40  30
Truth or Consequences   72  51  62  48 /   0  20  30  20
Silver City             68  48  58  45 /   0  20  50  30
Deming                  76  53  62  47 /  10  20  50  20
Lordsburg               76  54  64  48 /  10  20  50  30
West El Paso Metro      77  57  61  51 /  20  50  60  20
Dell City               74  51  58  46 /  50  70  50  20
Fort Hancock            77  57  61  50 /  40  60  50  20
Loma Linda              71  52  55  46 /  20  60  50  20
Fabens                  77  55  61  48 /  30  60  60  20
Santa Teresa            77  55  61  49 /  20  50  60  20
White Sands HQ          75  54  61  50 /  20  50  50  20
Jornada Range           76  50  63  47 /  10  40  50  20
Hatch                   75  53  63  50 /  10  20  50  20
Columbus                77  55  62  49 /  20  20  60  20
Orogrande               76  55  62  51 /  20  50  50  20
Mayhill                 61  41  48  38 /  50  50  40  30
Mescalero               64  41  51  39 /  40  40  40  30
Timberon                63  40  49  38 /  40  50  50  30
Winston                 66  41  56  38 /   0  20  30  30
Hillsboro               70  47  60  44 /   0  20  40  20
Spaceport               73  51  62  47 /   0  20  40  20
Lake Roberts            68  44  58  40 /   0  20  40  30
Hurley                  70  48  59  44 /   0  20  40  30
Cliff                   72  47  66  42 /   0  20  40  30
Mule Creek              72  43  64  40 /   0  20  30  30
Faywood                 71  49  60  45 /   0  20  40  20
Animas                  77  52  63  46 /  20  30  60  30
Hachita                 76  51  62  45 /  20  20  60  30
Antelope Wells          75  52  58  45 /  20  30  70  40
Cloverdale              71  50  56  45 /  20  30  60  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Monday for
     NMZ404>407-410>417.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Monday for
     TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

05 Rogash



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