Issued by NWS
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 202207 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 307 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BORDERLAND AREA LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. OTHERWISE... DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AND NEITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS AFFECTING THE WEST COAST TODAY...AND WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING REALLY TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NOT QUITE AS DEEP WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NON-GFS SOLUTION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...THIS JUST MEANS SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AT LEAST COMPARED TO SATURDAY... BUT STILL NOT A BIG EVENT. ALSO...A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE COOLER AIR HANGING BACK A LITTLE LONGER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO BREAK OFF INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN MEXICO...BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SO OVERALL...DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... THEN DROPPING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH THE LOWLANDS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 TUE/WED. && .AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINUED DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER TWENTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 39 69 41 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 35 65 36 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 37 71 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 33 68 37 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 27 51 30 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 69 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 31 62 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 32 70 32 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 30 69 31 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 25-HARDIMAN / 21-PARK
