Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292124
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
324 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The drier air over the region yesterday has moved away with more
moisture moving back in over the region Friday. This will mean
increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms over the next
several days. Temperatures will remain seasonally warm, but with
increased clouds and moisture highs should remain in the 90s
across the lowlands each afternoon. Better chances for storms will
be over the area mountains and western lowlands through the
weekend. Rain and storm chances look to increase for all areas
next week as the upper ridge weakens and allows a better monsoon
moisture plume to move in over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clockwise mid and upper-level circulation around a large upper
high centered over NW AZ has cycled yesterday`s dry air south of
our region, and ushered in slightly more moist air from the north.
With this moisture an upper-level disturbance is also moving into
and over our Gila region. The result is a broad batch of showers
and thunderstorms over our NW zones this afternoon. with S/SW
storm motion we expect continued scattered activity over the
western half of our CWFA today/tonight, isolated activity over the
the Sacramento mountains and the south central lowlands.

The weekend looks fairly constant on the weather pattern across
the forecast area with the upper ridge continuing it`s influence
in keeping moderate moisture locked up over the region...but also
working to minimize/suppress widespread convective activity. For
Saturday and Sunday we expect warm daytime highs a few degrees
above normal. Moisture will be adequate enough for scattered
mountain thunderstorms and generally isolated lowland
thunderstorms. However storm potential will be slightly elevated
over the western and northern lowland zones vs. the southern and
eastern lowland zones across our forecast area.

Beyond Sunday and through the rest of the forecast cycle we should
see some moisture gains as the upper ridge focuses east over the
Southern Plains and eastward. There is a ridge that extends west
to the Pacific coast, but it models show a weakness right over
our area that allows a deep southerly flow over our area which
will import increased monsoonal moisture into the region out of
Mexico. Thus POPs will be a bit more uniform across the forecast
area as opposed to the west bias of this weekend. In addition
POPs will be elevated a bit for much of the week as we keep PWs
above an inch in a static monsoon moisture profile and have a
weakening of high pressure aloft to help provide better
instability.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/00Z-31/00Z.
Strong thunderstorms will affect the Gila Region this afternoon and
evening, with a few stronger storms working into the lowlands of SW
New Mexico.  Most of the thunderstorm activity will skirt west of
KTCS, with a slight chance of KDMN being impacted.  Drier conditions
will prevail near/east of the Rio Grande.  Expect very similar
conditions Saturday but with a better chance of lowland storms
further to the east.

25-Hardiman

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased upper level moisture has led to more thunderstorm activity
over the Gila Region this afternoon, as expected.  With northeast
flow aloft, weak disturbances are helping to keep storms longer-
lived and organized.  Storms this afternoon have also been aided by
a westward-moving outflow boundary from early morning thunderstorms
over east-central New Mexico.  Expect activity will calm down within
a few hours as that outflow pushes west of the Gila.  A few storms
will make their way into the Bootheel region, but the main "show"
will shift to Arizona this evening.  Either way, expect very good RH
recovery in the Gila this evening.

Moisture will continue to improve over then next few days with
overall better thunderstorm chances.  Even still, western areas will
be favored over the east.  Many areas in the Gila could see over an
inch of rain between today and Monday.

Winds will remain light through the period, generally E to SE in the
lowlands.  In the higher elevations, winds will be more terrain-
driven during the overnight and morning hours, then largely
influenced by thunderstorm outflow in the afternoons/evenings.

25-Hardiman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75  98  75  97 /   0   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca           70  92  70  94 /   0   0  10  20
Las Cruces              70  95  70  96 /  10  10  20  10
Alamogordo              70  95  71  96 /  30  20  20  40
Cloudcroft              54  73  54  74 /  30  40  30  40
Truth or Consequences   71  96  71  94 /  20  20  30  30
Silver City             65  91  64  89 /  20  50  40  40
Deming                  70  97  71  96 /  10  10  30  20
Lordsburg               69  95  67  92 /  20  30  30  40
West El Paso Metro      75  96  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
Dell City               69  96  69  97 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Hancock            74  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
Loma Linda              69  91  68  91 /   0   0  10  20
Fabens                  73  97  73  98 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Teresa            73  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  20
White Sands HQ          73  94  72  94 /  10  10  30  20
Jornada Range           68  96  68  97 /  10  10  20  20
Hatch                   70  97  70  97 /  10  10  30  30
Columbus                72  96  71  96 /  10   0  20  20
Orogrande               72  94  72  95 /   0  10  20  10
Mayhill                 56  81  57  82 /  20  40  30  40
Mescalero               57  82  57  84 /  40  40  30  40
Timberon                55  80  56  81 /  20  40  30  40
Winston                 60  88  59  87 /  20  40  40  40
Hillsboro               67  93  66  94 /  20  30  40  40
Spaceport               69  95  69  94 /  20  10  30  30
Lake Roberts            57  89  56  89 /  30  60  50  50
Hurley                  65  90  64  89 /  20  20  30  40
Cliff                   63  93  63  92 /  30  40  40  50
Mule Creek              60  91  59  89 /  40  50  40  50
Faywood                 66  92  65  91 /  10  20  30  40
Animas                  69  95  69  92 /  10  10  30  40
Hachita                 69  96  69  93 /  10  10  20  30
Antelope Wells          68  92  67  90 /  10  20  20  30
Cloverdale              64  88  64  85 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/25


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