Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191109
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
508 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY US OUT STARTING ON SUNDAY...THOUGH
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS WEST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE INCREASE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SW ARIZONA WITH MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW
DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT MID/HIGH LEVELS WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE ALSO. TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S OF AROUND .7 -
.8 INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY WETTER AIRMASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS
NOT BRINGING MAIN TROUGH THROUGH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SO CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH
INTO THE BOOTHEEL EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE MOVED UP FROM
ABOUT DEMING TO SILVER CITY AND NORTHWARD. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM ABOUT .25-.50 INCHES IN THIS AREA. FORTUNATELY STORM
MOVEMENT IS RELATIVELY FAST SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOOD
POTENTIAL. NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS NICELY ALTHOUGH THEIR QPFS ARE
OVERDONE. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST HALF THIS MORNING AND
THEN MORE UNIFORM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH ON THE
SILVER BURN AREA AS MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THAT
AREA. BEST GUESS IS THAT WE WOULD NEED TO SEE ABOUT .75+ INCHES FALL
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THAT AREA TO START WORRYING ABOUT FLOODING. AS FOR
THE STORMS...LATEST MODELS SHOWING HIGHER MUCAPE VALUES THAN EARLIER
RUNS...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
NOT MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND WITH DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS...UPDRAFT TOWERS MAY SEE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MAINTAINING. THAT
SAID...WITH WBZ AT OR BELOW 12K FT MSL...SOME HAIL IS LIKELY ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

MAIN TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF NVA/SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS DUE TO THIS.
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT ON
MONDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME WEAK PVA AND UPWARD MOTION. WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTING AND PW`S OF AROUND .5 INCHES...WILL
KEEP LOW MOUNTAIN POPS IN FOR ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
KICK IN WITH STRONG WARMING TREND. WARMEST DAYS SHOULD BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE WINDIEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z...
GENL CONDS SCT-BKN150 BKN250. SCATTERED 6SM -TSRA BKN100 WITH A FEW
1-3SM +TSRA OVC080. TSTMS MOST FREQUENT WEST OF DEMING THIS
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE EVEN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER SW ARIZONA CONTINUES TO BRING UP MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALSO BRING IN
SOME MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
THE RETURN OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE SUNDAY...THOUGH A FEW MOUNTAINS SHOWERS/TSTSM STILL
POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMUP.
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE INTO WINDY CATEGORY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERHAPS
BRINGING FIRE CONDITIONS BACK TO NEAR CRITICAL. VENTILATION RATES
GOOD OR BETTER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW (2 OR 3) HAINES
INDICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  56  80  58  85 /  50  40   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  53  76  52  82 /  60  60   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              75  52  77  54  82 /  40  40  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              75  50  77  52  82 /  40  40  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              54  41  54  39  62 /  70  60  30  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  52  76  51  81 /  40  40  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             65  50  70  48  76 /  40  40  20  10   0
DEMING                  76  47  78  48  83 /  40  40  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               75  48  77  50  83 /  30  30   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      77  56  79  59  83 /  50  40   0   0   0
DELL CITY               73  45  78  45  81 /  60  60  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            82  59  84  58  88 /  60  60   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  52  71  53  75 /  60  60   0   0   0
FABENS                  79  51  80  54  85 /  50  40   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            76  55  78  56  82 /  40  40   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  59  76  61  81 /  40  40  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  44  76  45  82 /  40  40  10   0   0
HATCH                   74  47  76  49  82 /  40  40  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                75  57  76  55  81 /  40  40   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               76  51  80  52  83 /  40  40  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 59  45  63  45  68 /  70  60  30  20  10
MESCALERO               62  45  65  38  69 /  60  60  30  20  10
TIMBERON                59  44  63  38  68 /  60  60  30  10  10
WINSTON                 64  45  68  45  73 /  50  50  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               67  55  70  56  77 /  40  40  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               72  46  74  51  79 /  40  40  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  44  68  41  74 /  50  50  30  20   0
HURLEY                  68  50  70  48  76 /  40  40  20   0   0
CLIFF                   69  43  71  40  77 /  40  40  20  10   0
MULE CREEK              67  40  69  37  76 /  50  40  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 67  50  70  50  75 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  76  51  78  54  84 /  30  30   0   0   0
HACHITA                 75  49  77  49  82 /  30  30   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          78  51  80  54  85 /  30  30   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              72  48  75  48  80 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/HEFNER








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