Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042141
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
241 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds will bring mostly dry weather with milder
temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas through
Wednesday. Some residual clouds and possibly an isolated shower
will linger in Hudspeth county tonight. There may be a few patchy
rural areas of fog late tonight to around sunrise Monday in el
Paso and Hudspeth counties as well. A Polar cold front will push
into the Borderland Wednesday resulting in colder but dry weather
on Thursday. Then a return of westerly winds will produce mostly
sunny days and warmer weather next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low which brought our Saturday weather dug fairly deep
into Mexico as forecast and per model consensus will lift
northeastward into central Texas Monday. Will keep a token
mention of a light rain shower in Hudspeth county tonight
(especially the south southeast portion as models suggest they
still may get clipped in the northern most portion of the upper
low. Although drier air continues to advect southeast ward into
the CWA from the NW there may be enough low level moisture (albeit
shallow) to combine with light winds and wet ground to produce a
few patchy ares of fog in El Paso and Hudspeth counties late
tonight to around 15Z Monday mainly in low rural areas. Zonal
flow aloft will then bring dry weather and near normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

For midweek into next weekend, forecast models are in agreement
with a short wave trough moving into the central Rockies and
tailing into New Mexico Tuesday evening. For now it appears that
it will have little effect except for some increase in clouds.
There may be some brief light mountains showers with this system
in the mountains of the Gila wilderness but mainly north of our
CWA, However as this trough moves into the Great Plains, an
associated cold front (fairly cold Polar air from the Northwest)
will move southward on Wednesday and subsequently push westward
through New Mexico/west Texas Wednesday evening. The easterly flow
behind the front will push colder but dry air into the region
brining some easterly winds (again quite gusty west of area
mountains) causing Thursday`s high temperatures to fall around 10
degrees and also be about 10 degrees below normal for this time of
year.

The fast moving progressive 5 to 6 wave pattern will continue and
the resulting westerly winds will scour out the Polar air and
again return the borderland to dry weather and milder
temperatures by next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 05/00Z-06/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT150-200 through period. Light winds tonight will
gradually become westerly by 12Z and increase to 10-20G30KTS
by 18Z-20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry west-northwest flow will dominate the weather pattern across the
region for the next week.  Temperatures will fluctuate through this
period however.  Expect highs to continue a warming trend into the
upper 50s to mid 60s for the lowlands for the start of the week.
Wednesday there will be the initial effects of a cold front which
will drop highs about 5 to 10 degrees with another 5 to 10 degree
drop going into Thursday. Relative humidities will generally remain
above 20 percent through the week.  There will be occasional breezy
conditions with strongest winds expected Monday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 33  62  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           33  58  38  60 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces              30  60  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              29  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              22  43  26  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   28  59  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             25  53  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  27  61  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               28  62  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      35  61  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               30  62  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            34  63  39  66 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              32  56  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  31  62  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            32  61  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          33  60  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           26  60  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   29  60  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                31  63  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               31  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 22  52  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               23  50  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                24  49  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 19  55  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               24  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               28  58  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            15  54  22  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  24  56  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   21  60  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              21  58  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 25  57  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  26  65  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 26  64  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          26  62  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              28  60  35  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/26 Novlan / Grzywacz


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