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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210837
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
237 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM AND VERY DRY WEATHER TO
NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE WILL PRESS WESTWARD INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES NEXT FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYS WARM AND
DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. WITH IT...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MODERATE WINDS. THESE TWO FEATURES
HAVE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO POPS OR PCPN IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER WE EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON. NORTH/NORTH WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
TURN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD DROP 4-5 DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY`S READINGS. CONTINUED DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY
NW/W FLOW OFF THE SURFACE TODAY.

WEDNESDAY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BRINGS A ZONAL WESTERLY PATTERN WITH
VERY DRY AND WARMER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE UP 5-8
DEGREES. SKIES CONTINUED CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE
SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SEEP INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. ALOFT WE WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WITH WEST COAST TROUGHING ALOFT AND CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE...A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGHING OVER OUR REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A DRY LINE SETUP WHICH WILL ALLOW A NIGHTLY
MIGRATION OF THE DRY LINE/GULF MOISTURE TO CREEP WESTWARD INTO
OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES BEGINNING THURSDAY. THUS FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DAILY HEATING AND CONVERGENCE OVER THOSE
TWO COUNTIES PRODUCING AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY WE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THIS REGION WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS VERY DRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
SOUTHWEST OVER AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.  AFTERNOONS WILL BE MILDLY BREEZY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSED IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE TUE AFTERNOON...FAVORING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS TRACKED ACROSS
NORTHERN NM ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING WITH ALL LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATING SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE DRYLINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
ECMWF AND CMC-GEM MODELS KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
TRANSPECOS AND EASTERN PLAINS. LIKEWISE THE GFS HAS THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE EAST COMING IN ON
SATURDAY...FIGURING ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEND SOME OUTFLOW WESTWARD HELPING PUSH THE DRYLINE
FARTHER WEST THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE ON FRIDAY...DRIER/ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  65  94  68  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           85  58  91  62  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              85  57  91  58  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              85  55  90  58  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              61  40  68  45  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   84  58  91  61  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             82  51  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  86  53  91  56  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               86  53  91  57  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      85  64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               86  54  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            90  59  96  63  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              78  54  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  87  61  94  65  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            85  59  93  60  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  62  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  47  91  49  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   81  56  88  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                86  59  91  61  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               88  54  94  57  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 72  48  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               73  42  79  45  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                72  42  78  44  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 75  48  81  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               81  52  86  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               83  51  90  56  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            77  45  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  80  55  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   87  46  92  51  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              83  37  88  42  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 80  53  85  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  86  57  91  57  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 85  51  90  56  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          87  59  92  60  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              82  54  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/99