Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
306 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE
INLAND AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA IS WEAKENING AS THE WEST COAST UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SEND OUR TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE
SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAY...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH WITHIN THE RIDGE KEEPING THE WARMING GRADUAL THE NEXT 2
DAYS. EVEN SO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT. ANOTHER
JUMP IN TEMPS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWLANDS TO THREATEN
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE RIDGE THEN BREAKS DOWN BUT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THOSE TEMPS MILD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
COMPLAINTS HERE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS STILL
BRINGING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE 00Z RUN BACKED OFF A
LITTLE. THE 00Z ECM DAMPENS THE TROUGH OUT AND MAINTAINS SOME
DEGREE OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. GFS...COOLER AND SHOWERY
WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES BY MIDWEEK. ECM...MILD AND MAINLY DRY
DURING THE SAME PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH GFS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z-27/12Z... P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. WINDS
MAINLY LT AND VARIABLE ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY START WARMING UP OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN STARTING TO FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  35  64  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           56  32  60  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              57  32  61  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  33  61  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              41  26  49  30  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  33  60  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             53  33  58  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  58  30  62  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               59  29  64  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  37  62  39  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               60  31  64  33  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  34  65  34  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              51  36  56  39  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  60  32  65  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  33  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          56  36  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           57  24  61  25  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   58  27  63  27  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                57  33  61  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               56  34  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 51  29  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               48  28  54  30  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                48  28  53  31  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 53  30  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               54  35  58  37  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               58  29  62  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            55  28  58  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  54  31  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   57  20  60  22  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              55  17  59  19  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 54  34  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  60  31  65  31  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 59  29  64  28  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  30  64  31  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              58  32  61  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT





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