Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252133
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
333 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level storm systems will bring breezy to windy
conditions to the area most of the next seven days. High
temperatures will continue to run above normal through midweek. We
will see a chance for lowland rain showers and high mountain snow
showers on Tuesday and Wednesday and again on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We have transitioned to a more active weather pattern and that
will mean more wind and cooler temperatures. Currently a short
wave ridge was moving across New Mexico. This ridge will quickly
be followed by a short wave trough moving across the Four Corners
Region tonight. This system is coming through during the overnight
hours so its impacts will be minimal, but we could see some gusty
overnight winds especially east of area mountains. That short
wave trough will be quickly followed by another short wave ridge
(did I mention we were in an active weather pattern). By Monday
afternoon the short wave ridge will be to our east and (you guest
it) another upper level trough will be bearing down on us. This
next system will be mainly a wind maker for the lowlands and may
bring some precipitation to the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The best chance for precipitation will be west of the Rio Grande.
In the mountains it will be cool enough to see a few inches of
snow above 8,000 feet. We will get a slight break on Thursday
(still breezy though) before the next upper level trough drops
into the region on Friday. Much like the Tuesday system, the
trough on Friday will be mainly a wind maker in the lowlands and
will bring a chance for precipitation in area mountains. Still to
early for wind speeds and precipitation amounts, but considering
it is March/April I`ll lean more heavily on the winds than the
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/00Z-27/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT200-250 through period. SW winds will shift more
westerly and decrease from 10-20G30KTS to AOB 12KTS between 03-06Z
except around KELP where gusty winds will continue through about 08Z-
10Z.  Winds will start to increase out of the west after 15Z to 15-
25G35KTS with strongest winds along and south of KALM-KDMN line.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather pattern will continue through the upcoming week with
plenty of wind and near red flag conditions the next few days.
Upper trough will move over region tomorrow and bring gusty west
winds to the region with relative humidities in the lower to mid
teens.  Strongest winds still look like they will remain over
southern half of the area where I`ll keep the watch in effect as it
continues to look like a marginal situation. Winds look just a
little lighter on Monday but increase again Tuesday as a strong
upper low moves into the southern Rockies.  Could see some area,
especially east experience some critical conditions Tuesday. As this
upper low moves across, cooler temperatures and better moisture move
into the area as winds remain strong.  Some light precipitation is
possible Wednesday into Thursday and again next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 54  77  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           50  76  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              45  72  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              49  74  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              30  50  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   47  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             38  64  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  43  73  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               39  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      54  75  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               45  79  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            51  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              50  70  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  51  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            49  74  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          52  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           42  73  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   45  74  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                48  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               50  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 38  62  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               36  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                35  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 32  66  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               41  71  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               44  73  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            27  63  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  36  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   32  70  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              37  66  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 41  68  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  41  74  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 40  74  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          43  74  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for NMZ111-112.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz


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