Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DRYING OUT ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND BRING UP A NEW ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE
BOUND TO BE HEAVY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OR ENDING THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MODELS HINTED AT A TEMPORARY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND THE
DAY TURNED OUT PROBABLY EVEN DRIER THAN THE MODELS DEPICTED. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS
TOOK A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME REMAINED
OVER THE CWA BUT BECAME QUITE DIFFUSE AND THINNER. PW`S OF
1.20"-1.40" ON TUESDAY DIMINISHED TO AROUND .75"-.90" THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PW`S REMAIN ALL AROUND THE
AREA. MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN WEST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES TO SW ARIZONA AND
INCREASES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. EXPECT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY OVER MOUNTAINS AS MODELS ONLY
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MOISTURE STILL ON THE SLOW INCREASE.
MAXIMUM MOISTURE OCCURS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NICELY IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT MOISTURE COULD CLOUD THE CWA IN WITH A THICK OVERCAST FOR
FRIDAY. PROGGED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT. FOR NOW WILL STILL PLAY POPS AS IF
SOME SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCUR.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO TROUGH FRIDAY OVER NEW MEXICO AND MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA MID DAY SATURDAY WITH RAPID DRYING OUT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THE EAST EARLY ON BUT TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY WELL KILL ALMOST ALL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. NEXT SHIFT
CAN TRIM BACK POPS IF NEEDED. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY OF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN STORMS
AND THE ISOLATED STORMS ALL AREAS DURING THE EVENINGS.

UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME AND DRIFTS NORTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING WEST OF THE BAJA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TURN UPPER FLOW MOVE NORTHWEST AND
PUSH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IN. THIS MAY LIMIT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
JUST THE MOUNTAINS. GFS STILL TRYING TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT IN ON
THURSDAY SO THIS COULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER
MOUNTAINS...SCT-BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 420 WITH
ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 030. STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWLANDS AFT 22Z...WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW MOVING TO SW ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
BRINGING IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE REACHED. SOME FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN SATURDAY BUT
THEN TAPER OFF WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT DRIER THAN RECENTLY BUT
STILL ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL COOL TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 35-45% FRIDAY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT
35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR 45-55% FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  72  83  68  89 /  10  40  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           87  67  77  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              90  67  80  65  87 /  10  40  40  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              89  66  79  64  90 /  20  30  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              70  51  63  48  68 /  30  40  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  66  78  64  83 /  10  30  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             82  59  76  56  80 /  30  40  40  30  20
DEMING                  91  66  81  64  86 /  10  40  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               90  65  81  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  71  82  68  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
DELL CITY               93  68  83  64  89 /  10  50  40  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            91  71  81  67  92 /  10  40  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              86  67  79  64  84 /  10  40  40  40  30
FABENS                  92  69  82  65  91 /  10  40  40  40  30
SANTA TERESA            91  69  81  67  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  68  81  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           90  67  79  65  86 /  10  40  40  40  20
HATCH                   90  66  80  64  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
COLUMBUS                90  68  80  66  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               90  68  80  66  85 /  10  40  40  40  30
MAYHILL                 75  56  67  53  80 /  30  30  50  50  40
MESCALERO               78  56  70  53  79 /  30  30  50  50  40
TIMBERON                79  57  71  54  76 /  30  40  50  50  40
WINSTON                 79  53  72  50  81 /  30  40  50  30  20
HILLSBORO               84  62  77  59  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               88  66  78  64  84 /  10  30  40  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            82  58  75  55  80 /  30  40  50  30  20
HURLEY                  84  61  77  58  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLIFF                   86  60  78  54  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              84  57  78  51  78 /  20  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 84  61  77  58  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANIMAS                  88  65  79  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
HACHITA                 90  65  81  63  85 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  63  77  61  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLOVERDALE              83  63  78  60  81 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/HEFNER







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