Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 291006
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
406 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
As a weak upper disturbance leaves the area, thunderstorms will
become fewer in number the next two days, except for west of the
Continental Divide where moisture levels will be higher. Then on
Friday the disturbance will return and once again increase the
chance of thunderstorms area wide. By Sunday high pressure aloft
will strengthen and allow lowland temperatures to top out at
around 100 degrees Independence Day, along with fewer storms
across the Borderland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper wave definitely delivered yesterday with several
locations receiving substantial precipitation. Today and Thursday
the atmosphere will not be as unstable except for west of the
divide (closer to the deeper moisture), so thunderstorm coverage
should be down across the eastern 2/3 of our CWA. After a rather
mild day yesterday due to cloud cover, temperatures will return to
near normal for a couple of days.

The upper high center to the north has weakened somewhat, and will
shift further east late in the week. In response, the upper wave
after stalling over Sonora will lift northeastward across eastern
AZ & NM Friday into Saturday. This will bring another batch of
thunderstorms across the entire area, peaking Friday evening.
Temps will be slightly below normal during this period.
Atmospheric moisture per the models indicate the possibility of
localized flooding in spots during this time.

After the wave finally exits the desert southwest the upper high
will strengthen and relocate itself over NM & AZ and suppress
thunderstorm activity Sunday through Tuesday. Thus we`ll be back
to isolated valley/scattered mountain storm coverage as we`ll be
depending on surface heating acting upon residual moisture.
Lowland triple digit heat is likely early next week including
Independence Day.

The models diverge by the middle of next week, with the GFS
keeping the upper high pretty much over us for continued hot
weather and low-end thunderstorm activity, while the ECM brings
another upper wave into the picture for a return to an active
thunderstorm regime. That`s beyond this forecast period so we`ll
forget about this confusion for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/12Z-30/12Z. Look for mostly VFR conditions
to continue through the period. Expect FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN250,
then aft 18Z VCTS FEW-SCT040-060 SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC250 mainly
west of Deming. Winds will generally be southeast at speeds of 12
knots or less through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Shower and storm coverage will decrease the next few days as the
moisture plume shifts west and high pressure strengthens over Texas.
Western zones will see the best chance for wetting precip through
Thursday. Meanwhile an approaching disturbance will help bring the
moisture plume back over us as we approach the weekend increasing
rain potential for all zones.

Temps should run just a bit below normal the next several days with
moisture levels staying elevated. This will result in min RH values
staying above 20 percent this week with very good recoveries
continuing each evening. The area should begin to dry out early next
week allowing for lower RH values and warmer daytime temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  72  96  73 /  10  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca           89  67  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces              92  69  94  68 /  10  20  20  40
Alamogordo              93  69  95  69 /  20  20  30  20
Cloudcroft              69  53  73  53 /  40  30  50  40
Truth or Consequences   90  68  92  68 /  20  20  30  30
Silver City             86  63  86  62 /  40  40  40  50
Deming                  92  69  94  68 /  10  20  20  40
Lordsburg               92  68  90  66 /  30  30  30  50
West El Paso Metro      94  73  96  74 /  10  10  20  20
Dell City               93  66  96  67 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock            93  72  96  72 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda              89  68  91  67 /  10   0  20  10
Fabens                  94  71  96  71 /  10  10  20  10
Santa Teresa            93  71  96  70 /  10  10  20  20
White Sands HQ          92  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  30
Jornada Range           91  66  94  66 /  10  20  20  30
Hatch                   94  68  96  68 /  10  20  20  40
Columbus                93  70  95  69 /  10  20  30  40
Orogrande               92  71  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
Mayhill                 78  55  81  56 /  30  20  40  30
Mescalero               79  55  82  55 /  30  30  40  40
Timberon                77  54  80  53 /  30  30  40  40
Winston                 83  56  83  56 /  40  20  50  60
Hillsboro               90  64  90  64 /  30  20  40  50
Spaceport               91  68  93  67 /  10  20  20  30
Lake Roberts            87  53  87  53 /  50  40  60  60
Hurley                  87  63  87  62 /  30  30  40  50
Cliff                   91  58  90  57 /  40  40  40  60
Mule Creek              91  53  87  53 /  40  40  50  60
Faywood                 89  63  90  62 /  20  30  30  50
Animas                  93  68  91  66 /  30  30  40  50
Hachita                 92  67  92  65 /  20  30  30  50
Antelope Wells          90  65  89  64 /  30  30  50  50
Cloverdale              88  63  84  62 /  30  40  50  50

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett


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