Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312131
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE REGION...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE PIECES ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A BIG TIME RAIN EVENT. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A BOUNDARY (OLD COLD FRONT) THAT PUSHED IN
FROM THE EAST AND WILL HANG OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY WE HAVE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO HELP FUEL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
FINAL INGREDIENT IS THAT THE WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT MAKING RAIN AND THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND PROBABLY INTO SUNDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
OVER AND RECENTER ITSELF TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL HELP BRIEFLY PUSH
THE MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA. BUT DESPITE THE LESS MOIST AIR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HOPEFULLY THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS WILL
DIMINISH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE BACK TO OUR
WEST...BUT FOR NOW I DON`T SEE ANOTHER BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE...BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR MORE NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND RAIN HANGING
AROUND AS YOU IMAGINE WE WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE). HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
RUNNING 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE
AS THE MOISTURE AND THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT BUT STILL RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z - 02/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
NMRS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU PD. EXPECT P6SM
FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN100-140 BKN200-250. HOWEVER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF 1-2 SM +TSRA WITH CIGS
BKN030-040. WIND G40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. EASTERN SLOPES
OF AREA MTS COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT-BKN015-025 09Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SLOW STORM MOTION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FOR THE LOWLANDS AND LIKELY ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN AREA MOUNTAINS. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND DRAWS IN SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  87  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
SIERRA BLANCA           71  83  71  78  71 /  50  50  60  40  50
LAS CRUCES              68  86  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
ALAMOGORDO              69  87  69  82  69 /  70  60  60  60  50
CLOUDCROFT              48  63  47  64  47 /  70  80  60  70  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  85  67  81  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
SILVER CITY             62  80  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
DEMING                  68  85  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               66  85  67  83  67 /  40  50  60  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  88  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  60  60
DELL CITY               67  86  65  84  65 /  50  50  60  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            70  88  71  85  71 /  50  60  60  40  50
LOMA LINDA              64  81  66  86  66 /  60  60  60  50  50
FABENS                  71  88  71  85  71 /  60  60  60  50  60
SANTA TERESA            69  87  69  84  69 /  60  60  60  60  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  85  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
JORNADA RANGE           66  85  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  60  60
HATCH                   67  85  66  83  66 /  60  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS                68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
OROGRANDE               68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  50
MAYHILL                 54  72  52  71  52 /  70  80  60  80  60
MESCALERO               55  73  51  71  51 /  70  80  60  70  60
TIMBERON                51  72  50  71  50 /  70  80  60  70  60
WINSTON                 59  80  58  79  57 /  60  80  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               65  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  60  70  60
SPACEPORT               67  86  67  82  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
LAKE ROBERTS            53  79  53  82  53 /  60  70  60  70  60
HURLEY                  62  82  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
CLIFF                   59  81  56  81  56 /  60  60  60  60  60
MULE CREEK              56  80  54  80  54 /  50  60  60  60  50
FAYWOOD                 62  82  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  70  60
ANIMAS                  69  88  69  84  69 /  40  60  60  60  60
HACHITA                 66  88  66  85  66 /  50  60  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          69  87  69  83  69 /  40  50  60  50  60
CLOVERDALE              60  80  66  81  66 /  50  60  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ






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