Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211127
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
427 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE WARM BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AS AN AREA
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE WARM WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WE WILL BE DRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...THINGS ARE LOOKING GOOD WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
THEY WILL GET THICKER AND LOWER A LITTLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND. CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER AND
FURTHER SOUTH...SO I HAVE PULLED THE POPS FROM THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE PAIRED BACK THE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF
THE GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED WE WILL SEE HARDLY ANY RAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
FOR THIS SET OF GRIDS I HAVE DONE SOME TRIMMING BUT HAVEN`T PULLED
THE POPS ALL TOGETHER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A QUICK ONE SO BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING IT WILL BE TO OUR EAST. FOR SATURDAY AND THEN
INTO SUNDAY WE WILL SEE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION SO WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX A
LITTLE WAYS UP AND GRAB SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS AND BRING THEM
DOWN TO THE SURFACE SO SATURDAY WILL APPROACH BREEZY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION SO OUR
HIGHS WILL DROP 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION SO
OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
RAISING THE WHITE FLAG AND IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
WITH HAVING AN UPPER LEVEL RIG DE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD GIVE US SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TO ENJOY SOME TIME WITH FAMILY AND TO EAT SOME
TURKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z
WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WE WILL SEE CEILINGS OF BKN250...BUT BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO BKN120
IN SOME LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. I`M ONLY EXPECTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS WE SEE THE APPROACH OF A
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE SO I`M NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND ON SUNDAY A LITTLE STRONGER AT 15
TO 25 MPH. MIN RH`S THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 20`S IN THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MIN
RH`S WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND INTO
THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  43  65  43  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  41  62  39  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  39  63  38  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              63  39  62  39  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  30  48  31  45 /   0  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   60  36  63  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             58  38  58  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  35  64  36  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               65  33  62  32  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  44  63  44  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  39  65  38  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71  41  67  41  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  44  60  39  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  40  65  39  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  42  64  40  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  42  63  40  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  33  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   65  35  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  40  63  39  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               64  41  63  38  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  33  56  35  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               56  33  55  32  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  34  55  34  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 57  33  58  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               61  38  62  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  34  64  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  32  57  30  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  34  60  32  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   62  37  62  28  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              62  36  61  23  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  37  59  35  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  65  37  65  34  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 65  35  64  35  65 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  37  65  36  67 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  39  65  35  66 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15




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