Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230958
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
358 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY BRINGING WINDY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL GENERATE VERY HIGH WINDS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING TYPICAL SPRING TIME
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS. THE FIRST
EPISODE WILL BE TODAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INDUCING LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTING WARM DRY AIR INTO THEW CWA. THIS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DRY SURFACE TO
600 MB LAPSE RATES WITH THESE FACTORS INDUCING WINDY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST AREAS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION LOWERING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF WEST COAST TROUGH SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

POSSIBLE MAJOR WIND EVENT COULD EVOLVE ON SATURDAY. VERY DEEP
500 MB UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO WITH 70
TO 80 KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
BY EARLY EVENING. ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL GENERATE DEEP LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. GRADIENTS CONSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
WARM DRY NATURE OF AIR MASS RESULTING IN MIXING HEIGHTS TO 600 MB
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS VERY WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH WIND
SPEEDS LIKELY EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS ALL LOCATIONS AND EVEN
ATTAINING WARNING LEVELS OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LOWERING TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EXIST
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA BEING LOCATED BETWEEN DEEP TROUGH
TO THE EAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST. RESULTANT FLOW
WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT WARM DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH NO
CEILINGS EXPECTED BELOW 12,000 FEET AGL. HOWEVER AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z
RESULTING WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 KT AND ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION EXPECT MODERATE OR GREATER TURBULENCE
BELOW 10,000 FEET AGL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARM DRY
AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 5
TO 10 PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MEANWHILE BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS FORECASTED FOR THURSDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO
NEAR BREEZY ON FRIDAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
VERY HIGH WINDS ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS
AGAIN. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 86  60  82  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           84  53  80  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              84  52  78  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              83  52  77  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  36  54  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  53  76  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             75  41  71  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  82  47  78  47  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  48  77  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  58  80  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               81  46  82  48  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            90  56  86  56  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  52  74  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  85  54  81  55  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            85  52  80  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  62  78  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           82  45  78  46  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   81  46  77  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  53  77  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               85  53  80  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 70  42  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               71  37  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                69  37  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 75  40  72  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               78  51  73  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  50  75  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            73  37  70  40  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  77  42  73  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   76  38  73  38  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              74  35  72  35  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  47  71  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  52  79  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  48  78  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  51  80  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              79  46  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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