Area Forecast Discussion
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278
FXUS64 KEPZ 241103
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
403 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The winter storm has been a little slow to develop but winds will
pick up today as a cold front moves through. Just a few showers
with this front, mainly north and west of Las Cruces. Some snow
will fall in the mountains with around 2 to 4 inches possible.
With the front and upper trough east of the area by this evening,
drier weather will move in, though temperatures will also fall
back below normal for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winter storm has been a bit behind schedule per model runs but
still should move through this morning with rather minimal impact.
Surface front looks like it may be about to the Rio Grande
Valley with winds picking up along and just behind it. Showers
have been limited mostly to the Gila Region. Snow level around
7000 feet but should fall soon to around 5500-6000 feet. Silver
City webcam shows snow just starting there now. Still expect about
2-4 inches in the Gila, highest above 7000 feet. Snow should start
next few hours over the Sacs also but maybe only 1-3 inches for
that area. Lowland showers should remain mostly north and west of
Las Cruces. Look at satellite shows upper trough axis just over
eastern Arizona, just a few hours from entering New Mexico. This
axis will likely end most/all shower activity later this morning.

Parent long wave trough lingers over area into Wednesday before
finally exiting to the east. Trough provides some dynamics with
upper jet and significant cooling aloft, but just no moisture to
work with. Possibly just some cold air CU in the area for
Wednesday. Rest of the week looks to remain dry as upper flow
turns northwest and then north. Not a good pattern for warming,
and indeed temperatures will remain below normal into the weekend.
Upper trough drops down to the CWA Friday night along with weak
cool front, which just helps to reinforce the cool air in place.
No moisture to work with, so upper trough otherwise a non-factor
with our weather.

Some disagreement between GFS and ECMWF as this upper trough drops
south of the area. GFS drops trough down to the southern BAja,
closing off a low. This does begin drawing up moisture but is too
far south. The ECMWF on the other hand keeps the closed low a bit
further north and shows moisture and precip eventually rotating
into west Texas Monday (day 7 of forecast). For now will go with
GFS solution.

&&

.Aviation ...Valid 24/12Z-25/12Z.
Pacific front moving through the area will increase surface winds
this morning to west 20-30 kts. Stronger gusts on east slopes of
terrain of 45 kts. Mostly north and west of Las Cruces, isolated
showers with BKN100 layers to 250. Above 6000 ft...ocnl -SHSN cigs
AOB 020 vsbys 1-3SM. All shower activity should end around 18-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Pacific storm system accompanied by a cold front will move across
the area this morning. Gusty winds and isolate showers will
accompany the front through around noon time. Although winds will
will reach critical thresholds min RH will remain below these
thresholds alleviating any red flag concerns. Snow will fall
across higher terrain (above 6000 ft). with 2-4 inches possible.
Cooler conditions will follow for the remainder of the week. This
will result in a continuation of Min RH values generally above 30
percent all areas. Stronger transport winds today will result in
excellent vent rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 56  34  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           56  30  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              52  27  47  22 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              53  27  47  22 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              32  12  29  11 /  30   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   49  25  45  20 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City             38  20  36  18 /  30   0   0   0
Deming                  51  25  47  19 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg               49  24  46  20 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      54  33  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               55  27  51  23 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            59  31  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              50  29  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  55  31  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            54  29  49  23 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          54  29  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           52  22  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   52  27  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                53  28  49  22 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               54  29  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 41  21  36  17 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero               40  20  33  16 /  30   0   0   0
Timberon                40  21  33  17 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                 40  16  35  13 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro               46  21  41  17 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport               50  22  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            37   9  34   8 /  30   0   0   0
Hurley                  42  21  36  17 /  30   0   0   0
Cliff                   44  18  43  14 /  30   0   0   0
Mule Creek              41  16  41  15 /  30   0   0   0
Faywood                 45  21  41  16 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                  51  26  48  20 /  20   0   0   0
Hachita                 50  25  47  19 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          52  25  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              46  25  42  19 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ413>416.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for NMZ417.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for TXZ419.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for TXZ420>422.

&&

$$

17 Hefner



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