Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252138
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
338 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MOSTLY DRY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS FLIRTING
WITH THE CENTURY MARK. STARTING NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE MOISTURE
SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA TO GIVE US A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN OUR RAIN CHANCES
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GIVE THE AZ/NM BORDER ZONES AND MOUNTAIN ZONES AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE REST OF US
OUR OUT OF LUCK FOR RAIN FOR AWHILE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE RESULTS ARE THE SAME. THE
ECMWF SLOWLY DRIFTS AND WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WHICH
ALLOWS LOTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN A MARKED UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS NOW KEEPING
THE UPPER RIDGE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO...BUT AS THE
WEEK PROGRESS MOISTURE JUST SLOWLY BEGINS TO SLIP IN FROM ALMOST
EVERY DIRECTION. IN ADDITION THE GFS STILL HAS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH BRINGS IN EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE TO ENDURE SEVERAL
MORE DRY DAYS...BUT THEN WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO RUN 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN TO
NEAR NORMAL. AND IF THE EXTENDED GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED WE COULD
EVEN SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z - 27/00Z...
GENLY VFR THROUGH PERIOD. UNTIL 04Z...ISOLD -TSRA SCT/BKN120 TOPS
400 MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF DEMING. LIKELY SAME PATTERN ON
SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z AND OVER
THE LOWLANDS WEST OF DEMING AFT 21Z. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN TO CONTINUED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PARK
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY...LIMITING CONVECTION TO JUST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
ALLOWING MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTH TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK BACK INTO THE FIRE ZONES
WEST OF EL PASO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH`S
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN ABOUT 15-25% LOWLANDS AND 25-35% FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76 101  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           73  96  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  99  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71 100  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              51  79  51  77  51 /  10  20  10  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  98  70  97  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             61  92  62  91  62 /  10  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  70  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               69  98  70  98  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      75 101  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67 100  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            73 103  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  73 102  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            71 100  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  98  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  98  67  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   68 102  69  98  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                70  99  71  96  71 /   0   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               70 101  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 60  86  61  85  61 /  10  20  10  10  20
MESCALERO               57  88  58  87  58 /  10  20  10  10  20
TIMBERON                56  86  57  85  57 /  10  20  10  10  20
WINSTON                 62  90  63  91  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               68  94  69  95  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               69  98  70  97  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  92  58  93  58 /  10  30  30  30  30
HURLEY                  61  94  62  93  62 /   0  20  20  20  20
CLIFF                   60  97  60  96  61 /  10  30  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              56  94  57  95  57 /  10  20  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 65  94  66  95  66 /   0  20  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  70  98  70  98  71 /  10  20  30  20  20
HACHITA                 68  97  69  97  69 /   0  10  20  10  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  99  72  98  72 /  10  10  30  20  20
CLOVERDALE              63  93  64  94  64 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/HEFNER




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