Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
359 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NEW MEXICO WILL ALLOW HIGHER
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SUNSHINE SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE BORDERLAND
SATURDAY...GREATLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FUELING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE RIDGE HOWEVER WILL LIMIT BOTH THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL HIGH DEWPOINTS (45-55
DEG) FROM EL PASO EASTWARD..THOUGH EXITING TROUGH SHOULD HELP FLUSH
THIS. HRRR SHOWS THIS PROCESS BEGINNING AROUND 14Z AND COMPLETING BY
18Z. IF THIS FLUSHING IS DELAYED A FEW HOURS...LATE MORNING HEATING
COULD PROVIDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONLY NAM SHOWS
QPF NEAR THE NORTHERN ZONES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY BEGINS A TRANSITION TO MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN WILL
INCREASE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COOL FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST THROUGH ALL
OF THE CWA. FRONT SHOULD REACH ARIZONA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS
STILL MORE BULLISH WITH QPF THAN NAM...DESPITE VERY SIMILAR FEATURES
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. LI`S OF -2 TO -3 AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR PROFILES...ALL
COMBINE TO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PROG SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN DOWNWARD TREND FOR WBZ LEVELS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALSO.
LATEST WBZ LEVEL FOR EL PASO IS NOW 12,500 FT MSL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 55-65 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE US A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF MODERATE TO STRONG CAPPING
ALOFT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH CAN`T BE FLUSHED OUT. THE
RESULT IS USUALLY MORE ISOLATED STORMS WITH LESS STRENGTH...AND
OFTEN FAVORED OR LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS. SO SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GFS STILL SHOWING A BIT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ANDRES MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF BACKING OFF THIS SOLUTION. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN BOTH DAYS JUST IN CASE...BUT ECMWF PROBABLY CLOSER TO
REALITY GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE POSITION OF THE BLOCKING
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z.
CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS 10-15
KTS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MIN RH`S BOTH
DAYS RANGING FROM 7-17%. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. AREAS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE FLOODING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BUT UPPER RIDGE BECOMES PLANTED FIRMLY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL HAVE A CAPPING AFFECT ON THE ATMOSPHERE...LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED COVERAGE AND ALSO LIKELY
ELIMINATING THE STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MIN RH`S WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  64  95  65  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           90  58  92  60  85 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              91  56  94  58  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              92  58  95  59  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOUDCROFT              70  43  72  41  68 /   0   0   0   0  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  58  93  57  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             82  50  84  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  92  53  95  56  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               90  54  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      93  64  94  65  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               92  58  94  58  86 /   0   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            93  60  95  63  91 /   0   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              87  58  88  57  83 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  93  60  95  61  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            92  58  94  62  91 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          91  60  95  62  89 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           92  55  95  56  89 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   92  56  94  57  91 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                91  58  94  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               92  61  95  61  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
MAYHILL                 78  49  80  47  73 /   0   0   0   0  30
MESCALERO               79  46  81  45  76 /   0   0   0   0  30
TIMBERON                78  48  79  46  76 /   0   0   0   0  30
WINSTON                 82  46  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               89  53  91  54  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               92  54  96  54  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            82  45  84  49  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  84  50  87  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   89  42  90  41  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              86  38  86  40  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 86  52  88  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  91  54  94  58  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 92  52  95  56  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          91  52  94  56  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              85  51  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.