Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 142100
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 BY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY
ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING YET MORE WARM DRY AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING TO AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN WILL SHOW SOME CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS RIDGE
TO THE WEST FURTHER AMPLIFIES WHILE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE EAST.
THE INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND A VERY WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO COOL 5 TO 7 DEGREES WHICH WILL STILL
MEAN TOMORROW`S HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK
UP AGAIN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE THEN RACES ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY CAUSING WINDS TO BE MARGINALLY BREEZY AT BEST WHILE
WESTERLY FLOW CAUSES HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE WILL
FURTHER SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES NEXT SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/00Z-16/00Z...P6SM SKC-SCT250 THRU PD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SHIFT TO THE N TO NE AFT 06Z AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THEN AFT 18Z TURNING MORE SE TO E.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE LOWLANDS AND TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A LITTLE BREEZE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASING THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 44  70  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           42  68  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              41  69  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              40  67  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              32  48  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   41  68  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             39  66  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  38  69  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  69  29  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      45  69  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               38  69  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            43  71  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              44  67  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  42  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            41  69  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          43  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           36  68  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   40  69  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                40  70  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               45  69  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 41  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               34  58  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                40  57  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 37  64  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               38  68  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               39  68  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            29  66  22  68 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  37  67  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   29  69  22  71 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              27  69  20  71 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 38  67  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  39  72  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 36  70  28  73 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  69  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              40  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ


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