Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 040914
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
314 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONABLY HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWING MOISTURE PLUME STILL COVERING MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS NOW POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BORDER AND THIS IN TURN IS CAUSING MID LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE CWA. CONSEQUENTLY WARM DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE  WATER SHOULD FALL BELOW AN INCH MOST AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MORE STABLE. SO FOR TODAY EXPECT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER HIGH MOUNTAIN AND SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH CONVECTION RESTRICTED TO MAINLY MOUNTAIN AREAS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
ALSO ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

LATER THIS WEEK UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RESULTANT FLOW AND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AND MEXICO AND/OR GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAUSING PRECIPITABLE
WATER TO RISE ABOVE AN INCH. INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE
AIR MASS AND THUS EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE
THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z.
VERY ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BUT OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONABLY HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. MORE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                101  75 103  76 /  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           98  71  99  70 /  20  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              98  70 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO             100  70 103  69 /  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              76  54  78  55 /  20  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   98  69 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             89  64  91  65 /  20   0  10  10
DEMING                 100  70 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               99  67 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO     101  74 104  74 /  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY              100  72 102  72 /  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           103  72 103  72 /  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              93  71  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
FABENS                 103  72 103  72 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            99  72 102  73 /  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ         100  72 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           99  70 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   98  70 103  70 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                99  70 101  71 /  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               99  72 102  72 /  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 85  60  87  60 /  20  10  20  20
MESCALERO               85  58  87  57 /  20   0  20  20
TIMBERON                85  61  88  61 /  20  10  20  20
WINSTON                 88  60  89  61 /  20   0  20  20
HILLSBORO               94  67  97  68 /  10   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               98  70 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            89  58  91  59 /  20   0  10  10
HURLEY                  91  65  94  66 /  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   97  61  98  63 /  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              93  59  94  60 /  10   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 92  66  94  67 /  20   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  98  67  99  68 /  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 99  68 100  68 /  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          94  66  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              89  65  92  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH


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