Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 061001
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
301 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT COOL DAY IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND REGION
TODAY WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CONTINUED EAST WINDS BEHIND
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD WIND
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE GILA REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN LATE MONDAY FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA TO OUR SW. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED OVER CENTRAL TX WITH A
CONTINUED PUSH OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EAST. FOR TODAY
THIS MEANS SUNSHINE AND COOL...BUT WARMER...CONDITIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD GAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY`S WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. TODAY`S EAST WINDS WILL GAIN A BIT OF STRENGTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST HELPS
TO PULL WHILE THE HIGH TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO PUSH.

THE UPPER LOW FEATURE OVER THE BAJA IS PROGED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE FLOW ALOFT AND TRACK NE ACROSS THE GILA AND SURROUNDING
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO MOVE
IN/DEVELOP SAT AFTN/EVE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE MOSTLY STARVED
FOR MOISTURE WITH JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED...AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS OF W. SIERRA CO. AND N. HIDALGO CO. THOSE AREAS
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR PCPN/STORMS...ALL OTHER ZONES
WILL KEEP DRY WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE SLOW EXITING UPPER TROUGH COULD MANAGE
TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. AS
OF NOW NO MENTION OF THIS MINOR POTENTIAL. WILL WATCH THE NEXT RUN
OR TWO OF THE MODELS TO SEE IF THIS NEW SOLUTION STICKS.

MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK AND LACKING FOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE
DELIVERY. THIS MINOR POPS/PCPN ARE ALL THAT THE MODELS CAN PRODUCE
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED
POTENTIAL FAVORS THE ZONES EAST OF THE RIO...AND THE SACS IN
PARTICULAR. THE WEST LOOKS DRY WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM`S PASSAGE.

BEYOND TUESDAY WE LOOK DRY WITH RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO BUILD TO OUR
WEST AND PRESS IN. HOWEVER THE GFS WANTS TO HOLD IT WEST AND
CONTINUE TO BRING DISTURBANCES DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH SLIGHT
RISKS OF PCPN. THE ECMWF SCOURS OUT ALL PCPN WITH THE RIDGE NOSING
IN OVER OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR WED ONWARD
FOR ALL ZONES.

FOR THIS PACKAGE IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST DAY IS TODAY...AND THE
WARMEST DAY IS DAY 7...WITH A SLOW AND MODERATE WARMING TREND
BETWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/12Z-07/12Z...
VRF CONDS ALL TERMINALS WITH CAVU. SKC. WINDS E-SE 3-8KTS THRU
18Z...INCREASING TO 7-14KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT SOME MINOR
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN IS
ON TAP FOR THE GILA AND SURROUNDING AREAS SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. A
SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WILL FAVOR THE SACRAMENTO MTN REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NO STRONG WIND EVENTS THOUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 61  36  66  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  29  61  36  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              59  32  65  36  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  30  64  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              44  26  47  30  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   59  34  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             57  29  63  34  63 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEMING                  62  32  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               60  32  69  34  67 /   0   0  10  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      62  37  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               55  29  62  35  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  32  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              55  31  60  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  62  33  66  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            60  34  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  32  63  38  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           59  27  65  31  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   61  32  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                59  35  66  38  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  32  64  38  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 47  25  52  30  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               51  26  55  30  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                50  28  53  33  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 54  28  59  33  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
HILLSBORO               57  32  63  37  64 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               61  30  66  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  26  62  31  62 /   0   0  10  10   0
HURLEY                  57  28  63  33  65 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLIFF                   65  28  71  32  69 /   0   0   0  10   0
MULE CREEK              63  26  68  28  65 /   0   0  10  10   0
FAYWOOD                 55  31  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  62  32  70  35  69 /   0   0  10  10   0
HACHITA                 60  29  68  33  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  30  69  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              61  33  67  36  66 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/99




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