Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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817 FXUS64 KEPZ 272000 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 200 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 Hot and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming week. The first 100 degree temperature at the El Paso Airport is likely to occur this week. Very dry conditions and winds of 10 to 20 mph will keep the threat for fires high. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 Generally hot and dry conditions through the upcoming week. The period starts out with upper ridge just east of the CWA followed by a more zonal flow later in the week as a disturbance moves through, then the ridge rebuilds stronger. Tomorrow will be close to the first 100 degree temperature for KELP and along the lower Rio Grande Valley. Looks like just a degree or 2 of cooling Wed and again Thu. Winds each day will pick up to 10-20 mph. Lows generally in the 50s and 60s with some 40s in the valley locations of the Gila with very dry air remaining in place. Going into the weekend, ridge rebuilds over the Rockies and pushes just off to the east. There is some model differences as we get into late Sat into Mon as the operational GFS is digging a fairly strong trough into the central Rockies which brings some slightly cooler air into the area with just a day or 2 of around 100 degrees possible. The EC just brings this feature as a quick moving disturbance across the Northern Plains. GFS Ensemble mean is more in line with the last few runs of the EC which will keep temperatures in the upper 90s to around 104. NBM through this period seems a couple degrees too cool and raised most areas around 2 degrees. NBM also had some 15-20 Pops over the far east later in the week, but the pattern doesn`t seem to fit allowing a deep moisture push this far west so tapered down so they were not mentioned. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 P6SM SKC-FEW250 through period. West to southwest winds will pick up to 10-15G25KTS this afternoon before decreasing to AOB 10KTS after 02Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 Hot and dry conditions will continue with high temperatures in the 90s for the lowlands with a few 100 degree temps possible from Tue and again over the weekend. RH`s each afternoon will be falling into the single digits for much of the CWA, only area that may get a few RH`s in the teens would be the eastern Sacs when the dryline flirts with that area later in the week. Winds each afternoon will be in the 10-20 mph range, so near critical fire weather conditions are expected. Vent rates of excellent will be widespread through the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 100 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 95 66 93 / 10 10 10 10 Las Cruces 58 97 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 96 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 72 46 71 / 0 0 10 10 Truth or Consequences 56 95 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 59 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 96 53 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 52 94 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 99 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 54 99 55 97 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 57 102 58 100 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 92 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 100 62 99 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 97 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 97 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 96 51 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 53 98 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 98 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 95 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 84 50 82 / 0 0 10 10 Mescalero 47 86 48 84 / 0 0 10 10 Timberon 44 84 45 82 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 45 87 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 93 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 95 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 87 36 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 49 90 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 43 91 44 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 89 41 88 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 90 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 95 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 95 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 95 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 55 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz