249
FXUS64 KEWX 141044
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
544 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Upper level ridging builds in from the west today with this feature
remaining over the area through Saturday. Dry weather is expected
with some areas of low cloud cover each morning becoming more
scattered during the afternoons. Afternoon highs today and Saturday
are generally in the 90s everywhere except along the Rio Grande and
over the Rio Grande Plains where triple digit temperatures are
forecast. Afternoon dewpoints fall into the upper 50s and 60s each
day which should keep heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria.
Overall, quiet and warm in the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The Subtropical Ridge centers over the Southeastern States on Sunday
and remains there early next week. A plume of tropical moisture
approaches the Texas coast on Sunday allowing for a few showers and
thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains Sunday afternoon. The plume
works its way farther inland early next week with showers and
thunderstorms spreading to the I-35 corridor by Tuesday. The Ridge
then builds back over Texas mid to late week forcing the plume
toward the west with showers and thunderstorms spreading to the Rio
Grande on Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to show potential
for development of a tropical system with NHC indicating a 40%
chance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models maintain consensus
on a westward movement into and across Mexico. This would allow for
some enhancement in rainfall especially over the Coastal Plains to
the southern Rio Grande Plains. Although, direct wind impacts are
currently expected to be well south of our area, gusty winds are
possible in the stronger storms. Above normal high temperatures on
Sunday will gradually fall to below normal by mid week due to the
clouds and rain.

Beyond, this forecast period, models are showing the potential for
another tropical system for the following weekend. Stay tuned to the
latest forecasts on these potential systems. Be prepared for a busy
tropical season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

There is a slight chance for brief MVFR ceilings through 15Z at I-35
sites, otherwise VFR conditions continue for the period. Wind will
mainly be southeasterly below 10 knots. MVFR ceilings may return
near sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  81 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...04
Aviation...27