Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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459 FXUS64 KEWX 072357 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 657 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Skies are mostly clear across South-Central Texas this afternoon with just a few patches of a few fair weather cumulus out there. Temperatures are in the lower to middle 90s for most locations and dewpoints have begun to mix out which is something we have not seen too much of yet this summer. San Antonio International airport went from a dewpoint of 72 to 66 in an hour and boy do we love to see it. Although the temperature increased from 91 to 95 in the same time the heat index stayed at 99! Beyond the little victories of the heat, highs today will still top out in the middle 90s to near 103 degrees out west. Tonight should be mostly clear for the most part with some patchy nocturnal stratus in some places with the southern and western areas likely the preferred areas. Lows will be back in the lower to middle 70s for most locations with some upper 70s near the Rio Grande. With continued high pressure, tomorrow will be very similar to today with similar dewpoints. Will not need any heat products as moisture values remain in check. Could see a possible return of a decent coverage of nocturnal status tomorrow night and with that lows could have been a bit warmer. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Upper level high pressure will be located over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday keeping southerly flow at the surface and maximum temperatures in the 90s and low triple digits this day. Remnants of a weak upper low move towards the southern Plains Sunday night and linger near the area through Tuesday. This feature brings low chances for showers or thunderstorms (around 15-20 percent) to the area mainly Monday afternoon and evening. While slightly cooler temperatures are seen in the northern and eastern portions of the CWA Monday and Tuesday, it does not look like a significant drop with highs ranging from the low 90s in the northeastern portion of the area to around 103 degrees near the Rio Grande Monday and Tuesday. A warming trend is seen mid to late week as the subtropical high builds in again west of South Central Texas. A few models try to bring some additional precipitation chances to our far eastern Coastal Plain counties mid-week but chances are capped around 15 percent as confidence remains low. In general, most the area looks to remain dry through the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The upper level ridge will be moving east across the state overnight which will set up a better SE flow in the low and mid levels. There should be an increase in moisture at those levels by daybreak but to what extent and how fast this moisture returns is the question. While skies are clear right now models are hinting at a return of low clouds and MVFR mainly across the coastal plains which includes clouds coming up into the SAT/SSF area. Going with just a tempo group of MVFR right now in the Saturday AM hours for SAT/SSF as confidence is low that the return will happen this fast after the afternoon dewpoints were all mixing out into the 60s. While we are still getting some southerly wind gusts over 20...those should back off once the sun goes down and should see the directions settle into their seasonal directions with ESE at DRT and light southerly at SSF/SAT/AUS. If we do get some low clouds Saturday morning, they should mix out rather quickly with PC to Sunny skies expected Saturday afternoon with again seasonal SE winds, gusting over 20. Will likely see a more widespread cloudcover with IFR/MVFR on Sunday morning as the low level moisture continues to build back in to the area with the onshore SE winds from the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 103 80 103 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...09 Long-Term...17 Aviation...09