546
FXUS64 KEWX 311710
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1210 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Have let Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358 expire on schedule at 7 AM.
However, cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms today through
Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Points

* Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms today and Saturday
* Large (possibly very large greater than >2 inch) hail and damaging
  winds the main threats
* A tornado or two is possible
* Locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding possible

A cluster currently over West Central Texas will move southeast over
the Hill Country across northern portions of the I-35 corridor to US
77 overnight into early morning. Severe thunderstorms with large to
very large hail and strong damaging winds are possible. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 358 is in effect through 7 AM CDT. Locally heavy
rains can also be expected.

For today, the cluster will leave a surface boundary somewhere
across the area. The dryline will remain over western Texas. In
addition, upslope flow is expected over the Serranias del Burro west
of the Rio Grande. These items along with heating will provide
forcing for showers and thunderstorms. However, models do not agree
on timing or location. There are no mid level features to provide
forcing. As a result, will trend to the NBM POPs with the highest
POPs across eastern areas. Forecast soundings indicate a continued
potential for strong to severe storms with large to very large hail
and strong damaging wind gusts the main threats. SPC has a level 2
of 5 risk of severe storms. Locally heavy rains can also be
expected. WPC has a level 1 to 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rains.

There should be a lull in showers and thunderstorms tonight due to
lack of forcing after sunset. A rather humid, unstable airmass
persists on Saturday allowing for at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms with heating and possibly residual surface boundaries.
There remains a potential of strong to severe storms and locally
heavy rains. Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be
expected today through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Low to medium rain/storm chances look to persist into Saturday night
pending another weak disturbance embedded in the west-northwesterly
flow aloft and local outflow/mesoscale features. Confidence as seen
the last few days remains very low and dependent on storm activity
from the previous day and if the atmosphere is able to recover into
a more unstable environment. Any storms that are able to develop may
again have the ability to become strong to severe and produce some
locally heavy rainfall.

Rain chances begin to lessen from Sunday into early next week as the
upper level ridge over Mexico starts to strengthen and slowly nudge
northward with time. This looks to shift the storm track of those
weak embedded disturbances in the flow slightly more north and focus
most of the convection during these days from the central plains and
into portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth CWA. I will keep a very slim
area of low pops across our northeastern most counties both Sunday
and Monday if any activity and/or outflow is able to slim out of the
Dallas-Fort Worth region. The upper level ridge continues to advance
northward into the Desert Southwest and transitions towards more of
an Omega Block pattern as we move into mid to late week. While the
rain chances look to stay quite low through this stretch, this does
open up more of a northerly flow on the eastern periphery of the
ridge where we may have to monitor for any disturbance/outflow from
the central plains. Otherwise, the heat will intensify through next
week as the daytime highs are to climb back into the mid to upper
90s for many locations and in excess of 100 degrees for areas near
the Rio Grande. When factoring in those elevated dew points, the
heat indices are to climb into the 104 to 112 degree range and may
result in the return of some Heat Advisories across portions of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. As of
now we have shower/thunderstorm free TAFs due to low confidence in
the forecast, though some isolated to scattered activity remains
possible later this afternoon and evening which could produce sub-VFR
conditions. Otherwise, an MVFR cloud deck will likely develop
overnight which will lift and scatter through the late morning hours
Saturday. Additional isolated storms are possible again Saturday
afternoon, but again low confidence in placement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  90  75  94 /  20  30  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  90  75  93 /  30  30  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  94  76  96 /  20  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            71  87  73  90 /  20  20  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 102  79 100 /  10  10  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  88  74  91 /  20  30  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             75  96  77  97 /  20  10  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  93  75  94 /  20  30  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  89  76  92 /  30  40  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  94  77  96 /  20  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  95  78  97 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Gale