938
FXUS64 KLZK 250524
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

We were not able to complete a 12Z radiosonde launch today due to
lightning at the station, so an 18Z flight had to suffice. Sounding
revealed no surprises, with about 3200 j/kg CAPE in place, along
with a cap. Several clusters of thunderstorms have been trying to
develop this afternoon in the western portions of the forecast
area. Storms have managed to develop quickly and appeared to
approach severe limits at times, but with a lack of shear the
convective cells were not able to intensify and sustain themselves
despite the significant elevated instability in place.

For the third night in a row, additional convective development is
expected. Further bolstering convection tonight will be a weak front
dropping down into NW Arkansas, which should make it`s way into
central AR by morning. The front should retreat back to the north
during the day, and should result in drier weather during the
daytime hours tomorrow...at least for most areas.

I am anticipating another round of nocturnal storms Saturday
night...although these will probably remain primarily across the
northern portions of the forecast area. Sunday looks to be dry
across most of the area, with the exception of the northeast where
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

An upper ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico to begin the long
term period with southwest flow over Arkansas and an upper low over
the northern U.S. The upper low will move across the Great Lakes
and Midwest Monday. Another upper low moves through the Great
Lakes Tuesday as the flow aloft over Arkansas becomes northwest.
An upper ridge develops over the Rockies Wednesday and moves into
the Plains Thursday and Friday.

A cold front will be northwest of Arkansas Sunday night, and will
move through the state early Monday with showers and thunderstorms.
Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in for Monday
evening should there be some left over instability. Weak high
pressure builds into the area Tuesday through Thursday. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected during the day
Wednesday and Thursday as short waves move through the state.  A
warm front approaches from the south Friday and with moisture
returning, a chance of showers and thunderstorms has been included.
Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

SHRA/TSRA will continue through part of the overnight hours
across most terminals. TEMPO groups and VCTS have been written
into TAFs to account for uncertainty in coverage. Shower and
thunderstorm activity should shift east of the area just before
daybreak. Patchy fog will be possible for terminals that clear out
and where wind calm. Mostly MVFR/IFR conditions are expected
through the period with IFR conditions possible for terminals that
see heavy rain from thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  73  88  68 /  10  20  30  40
Camden AR         89  71  91  70 /  20   0  10  30
Harrison AR       83  70  88  62 /   0  30  20  20
Hot Springs AR    88  72  90  69 /  10  10  10  40
Little Rock   AR  89  74  91  71 /  10  10  20  40
Monticello AR     90  74  92  73 /  30   0  10  40
Mount Ida AR      87  71  90  67 /  10  10  10  30
Mountain Home AR  83  71  89  63 /  10  30  20  20
Newport AR        86  73  90  69 /  10  20  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     89  73  91  71 /  20   0  10  40
Russellville AR   87  72  90  66 /  10  20  10  20
Searcy AR         87  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  50
Stuttgart AR      88  74  90  72 /  20  10  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...73