Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 240834
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
334 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
today to Saturday with a strong storm system as it moves through
the region. Then with an unsettled weather pattern to affect the
region, chances of rain remain in the forecast Monday and again
later in the week. Winds will be elevated today out of the south
and a lake wind advisory

Currently, the developing storm system out west over the western
Plains was forming convection in the region, while closer to AR a
south wind flow was helping gradually increase moisture levels.
Dewpoint temperatures across AR were in the lower 50s south, to
the mid 40s central to north. Temperatures were mild with mainly
the 60s. Some mid and high clouds were seen spreading into the
region. Aloft, the upper low pressure system was over the east-
central Rockies, while a high pressure ridge over the southeast
US.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Convection chances will come up significantly today as the storm
system tracks to the east, affects AR mainly from noon to tonight,
then pushes out of the state Saturday. The strong system will
produce showers and thunderstorms, with the potential of strong to
severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has most of AR in a
slight risk of severe storms, with damaging winds the main threat
with a possible line of thunderstorms developing as the upper lift
from the system moves through AR. Isolated large hail and
tornadoes also may be seen, but are expected to be lower threats.
Models are consistent with timing of the main convection line,
with the storms reaching western AR from in the afternoon, central
areas evening to around midnight, then western areas past
midnight to early Saturday morning. Max instability, moisture
convergence and lift are forecast to be along the line of storms.
Behind the main strong to severe line of storms, some lighter
convection will still be possible until the upper low moves
farther east of AR later Saturday. Saturday night, some lingering
slight chance of showers mainly over northern AR, but by early
Sunday, dry weather will be seen. Rain amounts overall with this
system are expected to be from around half an inch to around an
inch and a half. Isolated higher amounts may be seen, if storms
move over the same area for an extended period of time.
Temperatures will be warm today ahead of the system and be in the
70s to a few 80s, then cool a bit back to the 60s to 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Models appear to be in generally good agreement in the synoptic
scale and much like the past few nights, continue to show an
overly progressive pattern. However, The devil remains in the
details with the models continuing to show enough timing and
location differences that a blend of solutions is warranted.

The period initiates with the upper level low responsible for the
unsettled weather in the short term period lifting out but another
upper trough is on its heels. After a dry Sunday, aforementioned
system will pass to the north of the state Sunday night and early
Monday and drag another boundary across the state. While system does
not appear to be nearly as strong as its predecessor, a few storms
could be strong, especially over the west.

Weak upper level ridging returns briefly for Monday night and most
of Tuesday before you guessed it, another upper trough approaches.
This system will be located over the four corners by late Tuesday
before moving into west Texas by midday Wednesday, closing off as it
does. Models then in general agreement moving this system northeast
of the state by the end of the period. Even though we are talking a
week out, system will need to be watched closely as it kicks out as
it could pack quite a punch.

Temperatures through the entire extended period will average above
normal for late March. MAV/MEX numbers look good and are generally
accepted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  58  68  50 /  30  90  30  10
Camden AR         76  58  74  51 /  50  90  20   0
Harrison AR       70  54  62  46 /  90  90  40   0
Hot Springs AR    74  56  70  50 /  70  80  20   0
Little Rock   AR  76  58  71  51 /  40  90  20   0
Monticello AR     77  63  74  53 /  20  90  40  10
Mount Ida AR      73  55  70  49 /  80  60  20   0
Mountain Home AR  72  55  64  47 /  70  90  60  10
Newport AR        75  60  69  51 /  20  90  50  20
Pine Bluff AR     77  60  72  53 /  30  90  30   0
Russellville AR   74  56  68  47 /  80  80  20   0
Searcy AR         75  59  69  51 /  30  90  30  10
Stuttgart AR      76  61  72  53 /  20  90  30  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-
Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-
Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-
Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van
Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...56



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