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494
FXUS64 KLZK 171715
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Expect similar conditions during the next valid TAF period.
Widely scattered, brief periods of IFR conditions due to fog are
expected, between 09 and 13z, mainly near larger bodies of water.

55

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 644 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017)
AVIATION...17/12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD as high pressure conts over AR.
Seeing some localized fog, mainly near the larger lakes, with
brief IFR/LIFR conds noted. Light winds this mrng wl bcm E/SELY
later today arnd 5 mph. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Sfc high pres ridge was situated across AR this mrng, resulting in
clear skies and light winds. Chilly temps were also noted over the
FA, with readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Expect to see a few
reports of spotty frost later this mrng in some of the normally
colder locations.

High pres wl prevail across the region for the next few days, with
dry weather and seasonal conds expected. The high is fcst to weaken
as the period progresses, which will allow S/SE winds to return
later in the PD. Temps will hover within a few degrees of seasonal
norms today/tngt, with a slow moderation commencing later in the PD.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

Models remain in generally good agreement initially before diverging
significantly over the weekend. While all the extended range models
are showing an upper trough swinging through this weekend, the GFS
solution is faster with its overall progression versus its ECMWF
counterpart. Models have been having trouble zeroing on a solution
the past few nights and a blend of solutions seems prudent at this
point.

Upper level high pressure will be building across the area early in
the period allowing temperatures to warm back up to above normal for
mid to late October. As the ridge builds, precipitable water values
will be creeping up as southerly flow gets reestablished.

Meanwhile, a stout pacific trough will be moving into the western
plains by Saturday afternoon with the model differences becoming
quite evident by that time. Precipitation is looking more favorable
with this trough and associated cold front as it sweeps through the
area during the Saturday night and Sunday time frame. Timing of the
front will ultimately determine the severe potential but I will lean
towards the conservative for now. Temperatures will return to normal
levels after the front moves through.

Given the lack of widespread and significant precipitation over the
past few weeks and dry conditions expected through the work week,
wildfire danger will remain moderate to high.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99