Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 290554
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPBF...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DO EXPECT FAIRLY LOW COVERAGE
WITH THESE STORMS AND AT THIS POINT JUST INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS
AT KHRO/KBPK/KHOT/KADF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         69  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  65  88 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  92  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  91  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      68  91  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65



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