493
FXUS64 KLZK 151717
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

-Chances for rain and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through
 mid-week.

-Temperatures are expected to increase to above-normal values over
 much of the state, with hazardous heat returning by mid-week and
 persisting through much of the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Current mosaic radar imgry depicted lingering precip activity acrs
Wrn AR. Most short-term guidance remains indicative of additional
development of overnight thunderstorms over the N/Wrn half of the FA
thru into later Tues mrng. QPF progs w/ this activity are also
continuing to advertise a few streaks of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
w/ some stronger storms, which could yield some isolated flooding
potential, but a more widespread flooding threat is not currently
anticipated.

Thru the week ahead, the main message wl shift towards hazardous
heat persisting over the FA. H500 anticyclonic flow is progged to
expand over much of the Srn Cntrl US, w/ a synoptic cdfrnt stalling
over the Cntrl Plains near mid-week, and residing as a stationary
frnt thru the remainder of the work week. Prior to the arrival of
this stalled frnt, daily rain chances wl dwindle to primarily
diurnally driven convective activity, w/ more prominent rain chances
returning to Nrn AR by Fri invof the aforementioned stalled frnt.

The next few days (particularly Wed and Thurs) are expected to host
hot aftn temps in the upper 90s acrs the Srn two-thirds of the
state, w/ higher humidity levels corresponding to peak heat index
values in excess of 105 degrees, necessitating the
potential for heat headlines once again. Despite incrsg rain
chances on Fri, any potential cool down looks to stay brief, w/
hazardous heat resuming thru the weekend and remainder of the PD.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The northern sites of KHRO and KBPK may experience VCSH for the
first few hours of the forecast period. Additionally, lowered CIGS
to MVFR flight category can be expected for these first few hours.
Elsewhere across the remaining sites, expect VFR flight category for
the entire forecast period from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  95  75  97 /  10  30   0  10
Camden AR         74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       72  91  72  92 /  10  30   0  20
Hot Springs AR    74  96  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  97  77  99 /  10  10   0   0
Monticello AR     76  98  77  98 /  10   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      73  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  71  91  72  93 /  10  40   0  20
Newport AR        75  96  76  97 /  10  20   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     75  97  76  97 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   73  95  73  97 /  20  10   0  10
Searcy AR         73  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      76  96  77  97 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74