Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 280007
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
707 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...

Afternoon convection continues to move across the southeastern
corner of AR...mainly affecting KLLQ...where cigs and visbys will
likely bounce around for the next few hours. Otherwise...most
locations should be free from precip tonight...although hit and
miss showers will be possible. Given all the low level
moisture...do expect MVFR to IFR cigs and visbys during the
overnight period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night
Precipitation continues to affect southwest...and eastern sections
of the forecast area. Satellite imagery reveals a well defined
MCS...affecting southeast Texas and western Louisiana. This
activity appears to be affecting parcel trajectories into the
local area...however at least widely scattered convection is
expected overnight...due to the degree of available instability.

Some weak low level ridging will develop across southern portions
of the state on Saturday...and is expected to promote a decrease
in overall coverage of convection for Saturday and Saturday night.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Friday
Early in the pd...the upr flow wl briefly flatten out acrs the mid
south. WIth plenty of moisture in place acrs the FA...expect to see
mainly diurnal sctd convection form Sun and linger into early Sun
ngt.

Heading into the first half of next week...more unsettled wx conds
wl return as the upr flow once again bcms swly. This wl bring
several upr impulses acrs the region...interacting with abundant
moisture to produce sctd SHRA/TSRA. Precip coverage will also be
aided by an apchg fntl bndry that wl eventually meander ovr the FA
toward the middle of the week. Like we have been seeing this week...
timing/extent of convection rmns problematic on a daily basis so
POPs were confined to the chc category.

Heading into late next week...notable differences emerge between the
ECMWF and the GFS. GFS wants to dvlp a closed low ovr the mid-south.
Prefer the more progressive ECMWF solution attm with rain chcs
starting to dcrs a bit by next Fri as the aforementioned fntl bndry
gets shunted off to the SE of AR.&&

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...224



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