Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211121
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
521 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Upper low moving to the south of the forecast area should promote
MVFR ceilings through much of this period. Expect some temporal
variability with regard to conditions, especially during the
first half of the valid TAF period.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 350 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
Data from KLZK radar indicate an area of moderate rain moving
north across the eastern third of Arkansas. Lighter returns are
noted across the remainder of the forecast area moving, slowly
south. Surface observations indicate areas of fog across western
sections, with temporal variability noted in recent visibility
values.

Water vapor imagery reveals center of closed low over
southeast Texas, moving eastward. Several CAM models indicate
some potential for additional precipitation this morning and
early afternoon in association with this feature, especially
across southern sections.

Precipitation will end by early evening. Very warm conditions are
expected for Wednesday, with some stations expected to approach
record maximum levels for the calendar day.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
The period will begin with dry and very warm conditions on
Thursday/Friday. Temperatures will be well above average. A storm
system will be over western Kansas, and will intensify as it tracks
toward Iowa. South to southwest winds will pick up locally, and
this will increase the fire danger.

The system will drag a cold front into Arkansas on Friday. Data is
showing limited moisture/capping ahead of the front, with little in
the way of precipitation. Have slight chances of showers in the
eastern counties on Friday.

Cooler weather/northwest winds will follow by Saturday. Temperatures
will be closer to seasonal. High pressure will build over the
region, but will not stay long.

As the high shifts toward the southeast United States, winds will
become more southerly and it will warm up again. The flow early next
week will be close to zonal. A new front will approach from the
north, but will probably stall. There will be more clouds Sunday
night and Monday, and have isolated to scattered showers in the
forecast

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99


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