Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231955
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
255 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.Short Term...Tonight through Sunday night

Much like yesterday, convection developed rapidly by early afternoon
but a little more concentrated over the south versus previous days.
Current temperatures are actually running a little behind yesterday
but dew points are higher leading to excessive heat warnings around
the metropolitan area with a heat advisory covering the remainder of
the CWA. The very hot conditions will continue on Sunday and the
heat advisory will be continued but the extended period will offer
some relief.

Strong upper ridge that has been dominating of late is showing some
signs of breaking down. Latest moisture channel imagery shows an
upper trough over the western high plains that is effectively
flattening out this feature. Moisture channel imagery also shows an
upper level disturbance along the Tennessee/Mississippi border, on
the eastern periphery of the ridge, which is helping to enhance the
convection.

Precipitation chances will decrease this evening before ramping up
again tonight and especially Sunday as the aforementioned upper
disturbance drifts southwest through the day. Rain chances will be
higher over the south as a result. With PWATS in excess of two
inches and light winds aloft, locally heavy rain can not be
discounted. Precipitation chances will decrease Sunday night as the
disturbance weakens/moves into Texas by Monday morning.

&&

Long Term...Monday through Saturday

The gist of the long term period has not changed much. High
amplitude upper ridge will have broken down come Monday, thanks to a
couple of shortwave troughs making upper flow across the Canadian
border more zonal. Afterward the models are in good agreement with
building the ridge over the western United States by mid to late
week which will offer continued relief from the excessive heat we
have seen of late.

In addition to the relief in the heat, the pattern change will lead
to increased rain chances. This will be a mix of diurnally driven
convective tendencies, as well as the possibility of some MCS
activity. As such kept rain chances in the forecast during both the
daytime and nighttime hours, with the highest chances during the
afternoon and evening. One other thing to note about the long term
period is that precipitable water values will be fairly
high...around or exceeding 2 inches...through the period. With
overall weak flow and high PWAT levels, the possibility for flash
flooding will be of concern as storms will be efficient rain
producers and slow moving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  77  93  76 /  30  20  30  20
Camden AR         99  78  95  74 /  30  30  50  30
Harrison AR       95  76  94  73 /  30  10  30  20
Hot Springs AR    99  78  96  74 /  30  30  40  30
Little Rock   AR 101  78  96  76 /  30  30  40  20
Monticello AR     96  78  93  75 /  30  40  60  30
Mount Ida AR      99  76  95  73 /  30  20  30  30
Mountain Home AR  97  76  95  74 /  30  10  30  20
Newport AR        97  77  94  76 /  30  20  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     96  78  93  75 /  30  40  50  30
Russellville AR   99  77  96  75 /  30  20  30  20
Searcy AR         97  77  94  74 /  30  30  40  20
Stuttgart AR      97  77  94  75 /  30  40  50  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR Faulkner-
Lonoke-Pulaski-Saline-White.

&&

$$

Short Term...56 / Long Term...64


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