314
FXUS64 KLZK 230729
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

An active weather pattern is expected through much of the short term
period as several shortwaves push through the area. As of early this
morning...a few thunderstorms are currently popping up over southern
and central Arkansas with additional coverage expected through the
morning and afternoon hours today. Hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes will be possible with these storms...especially with
afternoon thunderstorms.

Unsettled weather is expected to continue into early Saturday with
strong to severe storms possible. Coverage is uncertain at this
time...although it appear most parts of the state could see at
least on and off showers.

CAMs supports this idea of multiple rounds of strong to severe
storms and heavy rainfall. Many locations across the state should
prepare for on and off showers and thunderstorms through at least
Saturday morning with some severe storms likely. QPF amounts will
be the highest across southern Arkansas where the axis of
heaviest rainfall is expected.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with
overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

An active pattern will persist for at least the first part of the
long term period. SW flow aloft and SRLY SFC flow will keep warm
temps and plentiful moisture in place across the region...with
chances for convection continuing over the weekend. A shortwave will
lift NE over the region late Sat into Sun...with increased potential
for SHRA/TSRA Sat night through Sunday. With plenty of forecast
instability and some SHR expected...some strong to SVR convection
will remain possible into Sun night. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the primary hazards expected with the strongest storms. A
couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall may
result in some isolated flash flooding.

Chances for convection start to decrease on Memorial Day in the wake
of the upper shortwave departing as a cold front sweeps SE through
the state. Cooler and much drier air will filter into the region by
Tue...with chances for precip decreasing as a result. Temps will
drop to near or just below normals...especially overnight lows.
Dewpts will also drop to much more comfortable levels by the end of
this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Mostly MVFR/IFR conditions are expected through the first part of
the period as TSRA/SHRA remain possible through sunset Thursday.
Only a brief break in the showers are expected with additional
showers and storms possible into Friday. Winds will be out of the
south and could be gusty with storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  69  85  66 /  80  50  50  40
Camden AR         86  68  90  68 /  60  50  10  40
Harrison AR       81  66  84  62 /  30  40  40  20
Hot Springs AR    84  67  89  68 /  70  60  20  50
Little Rock   AR  84  71  89  70 /  90  60  30  50
Monticello AR     86  71  90  71 /  70  50  10  40
Mount Ida AR      84  65  88  66 /  80  60  20  50
Mountain Home AR  81  67  84  63 /  40  30  50  20
Newport AR        83  70  87  68 /  70  50  50  50
Pine Bluff AR     85  70  90  70 /  80  50  20  50
Russellville AR   84  67  88  67 /  60  50  30  30
Searcy AR         83  68  87  67 / 100  60  40  50
Stuttgart AR      84  71  89  71 /  90  60  30  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...73