Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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705 FXUS64 KLZK 100455 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1155 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Early afternoon visible satellite imagery and regional radars show a cluster of strong thunderstorms across north Texas and south central Oklahoma. Subjective surface analysis indicated a frontal boundary was quasi-stationary along the Arkansas/Louisiana border, extending west to just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. To the north of this boundary, supercells that developed in north central Texas were consistently splitting and the northerly splits were surviving for quite a while moving north into south central Oklahoma. This thunderstorm activity is expected to push east late this afternoon and this evening, potentially spreading rain shower and thunderstorm activity across the southern third of Arkansas. Based on the LZK 00Z weather balloon severe weather is not expected at this time, however if the left/north split supercells are able to continue this evening, cannot rule out some isolated severe hail across the southern portion of the state. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms across southern Arkansas are expected to dissipate from west to east by sunrise on Friday. Once these storms dissipate early Friday morning, a few dry and calm days are in the forecast through the weekend. Dry air advection and surface high pressure will make these days quite comfortable with daily highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 50s each night. Humidity will remain relatively low through this weekend before our next rain chances arrive early next week in the long term forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Few changes to the previous long term forecast as models remain in generally good agreement. Long term starts off with High pressure at the surface and dry weather in the forecast. Aloft, slight northwesterly flow is in place as slight ridging begins to slide east and over Central Arkansas for the second half of the weekend. By Sunday, southerly flow returns to the region allowing for some moisture return ahead of the next storm system that will approach from the west. At this point there still remains some questions to whether severe weather will be possible with these storms. At this point, the upper level low is fairly positively tilted and the precipitation is forecast to be well ahead of he frontal boundary and do believe the severe weather threat will be somewhat low. Precipitation will push east of the state on Tuesday and a period of dry weather will be fairly short lived as the next storm system approaches the state just beyond the end of the long term. Temperatures in the long term will be slightly above average with highs in the 80`s and lows in the 60`s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Winds will become light and variable overnight...but pick back up again on Fri from the north. Expect VFR conditions to continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 57 75 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 61 80 55 81 / 30 0 0 0 Harrison AR 52 70 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 59 80 54 82 / 20 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 61 78 57 82 / 20 0 0 0 Monticello AR 62 80 58 81 / 30 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 58 78 53 82 / 20 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 53 73 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 59 75 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 61 78 56 81 / 20 0 0 0 Russellville AR 57 78 51 82 / 20 0 0 0 Searcy AR 58 76 54 81 / 20 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 61 75 56 80 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....65 AVIATION...62